It was sort of a 2-fold strategy. I created these positions during a dip so I am sitting on a small profit at the moment. Thanks for the info about the quarterly expiration, sometimes I forget the other things which affect options prices.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I would hope nobody would give you crap for buying into it… so long as we don’t turn this thread into another debate/ discussion about it.
I agree about it being a good time to be long in general, but my 12/9 spreads are a bit crazy. I have some 1270/ 1290 spreads because why wouldn’t it hit 1290 on 12/9? As I said… planning on derisking/ using house money as we get closer.
as per Elon's leaked e-mail, this time end of quarter push will focus on cost reduction, instead of delivering as many cars as possible.
So Q4 might not be quite such a blowout as expected. I'm still expecting a record, but it might not be a huge beat. Tread carefully.
So Q4 might not be quite such a blowout as expected. I'm still expecting a record, but it might not be a huge beat. Tread carefully.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Lol.....I was about to pop in this thread to post the opposite. And I think that speaks to a large chance of reversion to our traditional sell-the-news format for 4Q earnings.
$1400 price targets abound.
And PE ratio absolutely will reset to something quite rational once earnings are out, regardless of beat size.
And SP has shown incredible strength thru Elon's selling, both structurally and emotionally. How does the market not freak out when Elon sells $17B worth of shares?
This is the kind of headspace Wall Street wants us in. Quite ready to believe a 20% swing is looming in either direction. For now, my money is on a slow rise to $1300 and a sell-the-news test of $1000 into February. Macros aren't looking negative enough for MM's to take SP below $1000 before the 4Q call.
Anywho, I'm looking to close out all my 12/3 BPS today if we pop back up in the last few minutes of trading. Jump into $840/$940 BPS for next week once we dip Tuesday or Wednesday.
Was the same a few weeks back, normally you can get $10-15 strike improvement fro free, but it was $95 then too
I understand his point (cost-efficiency vs. wasting resources beating arbitrary calendar targets).
He might have phrased his tweet better, but Elon is Elon. The SP seemed to lose steam after his tweet today saying Q4 deliveries would be "very intense, just slightly less than in the past." Of course people are focusing on the "less than in the past". Still up 5% for the day so
How does a BPS pay better than a put when you have to buy the long leg? The thought is that if I am able to allow the trade to expire worthless, the long leg debit isn't returned, just the short leg premium. Sorry, I have a momentary mental block
No I am keeping that cash for helping to buy a house (here the land itself is worth $2m) but always planned on selling puts or BPS against it until sometime next year when ready to buy. Of course long dated BPS could delay that if stock tanks and stays low right away.
I don't even know if the pay is less than weekly play for me. I truly believe TSLA could drop (or go up) 30% in any given week and would never consistently sell weekly BPS closer than that to current share price. Meanwhile I am almost just as comfortable going 35% OTM for a year out. So premiums will be better since I'm not going way OTM for a year out.
Overly simplified:
A naked $1000 put will in essence require $100k collareral (100 shares * $1000).
A BPS -1000/+900 will require $10k collateral. So for the same 100k backing, you could sell one naked put, or 10 spreads.
Spreads add leverage. You get a better payout, but you are increasing risk.
A -1000/+990 spread would only require 1k collateral. So you could sell 100 of those with the same 100k.
Soo... you're expecting a 20% move upwards, but selling bps $200/15% below stock price?
What am I not getting here?
Absolutely agree. This whole quarter-over-quarter cycle is idiocy.I understand his point (cost-efficiency vs. wasting resources beating arbitrary calendar targets).
He might have phrased his tweet better, but Elon is Elon. The SP seemed to lose steam after his tweet today saying Q4 deliveries would be "very intense, just slightly less than in the past." Of course people are focusing on the "less than in the past". Still up 5% for the day so
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm saying I'd be more wary of a 20% pop than a testing of $1k in December. Hence I'm more inclined to sell put spreads.
I'm expecting something similar to last week. Elon has been selling the same 934,091 of 10b5-1 shares to pay taxes on those he exercises and so far always on a Monday or Tuesday. I'm not sure we'll see a Form 4 for today and if so then it's highly likely that Elon will be selling tomorrow. Hedge Funds know this pattern and will be ready to jump on board with any selling to push the stock price down again and profit from the volatility.
I'm planning to close my BPS (mostly up 65% from Friday) on the early trading spike and then watch for any weakness. If we get a sell off, I'll reopen my BPS somewhere near the bottom and gain some extra premium. If we don't get a sell off, I'll be reopening the BPS anyway but using slightly higher strikes to harvest more premium (which I would have done anyway).
Volume today has been below average. I give it less than even chance of Elon having sold anything today. On days he sells, the stock moves feel spastic. Today wasn't like that.
On (short-trading-day) Black Friday, I completely reset my TSLA position, so end result: I am just long TSLA with no options (for now).
Was holding -c825s TSLA for Feb22 that I had been slowly rolling up (from -c800) by $5 increments since we left the doldrums a few months ago (only ever rolling for a credit). Was painful to watch the stock rocket to $1243 from the sidelines, knowing my shares would be called away for so much less.
Luckily (complete dumb luck), I took a flyer (suggestion of Mr. Wonderful) on shorting JETS the prior Friday (via puts, since in my IRA, I can't short). Bought a boatload of ITM puts (@$22) and watched them almost expire worthless (Mon - Thu). Then came Omicron and JETS took a nosedive Friday morning. Was a jackpot of something like 512% in one week. Ridiculous. Perhaps not prudent, but I took the windfall and I bought back my TSLA calls and some more chairs with the proceeds and am coming out of the ether thinking where to go next other than HODLing. BPS? CCs?
Strange to be back at option square zero again. Still bullish, of course, on the stock but willing to trade around volitility.
Was holding -c825s TSLA for Feb22 that I had been slowly rolling up (from -c800) by $5 increments since we left the doldrums a few months ago (only ever rolling for a credit). Was painful to watch the stock rocket to $1243 from the sidelines, knowing my shares would be called away for so much less.
Luckily (complete dumb luck), I took a flyer (suggestion of Mr. Wonderful) on shorting JETS the prior Friday (via puts, since in my IRA, I can't short). Bought a boatload of ITM puts (@$22) and watched them almost expire worthless (Mon - Thu). Then came Omicron and JETS took a nosedive Friday morning. Was a jackpot of something like 512% in one week. Ridiculous. Perhaps not prudent, but I took the windfall and I bought back my TSLA calls and some more chairs with the proceeds and am coming out of the ether thinking where to go next other than HODLing. BPS? CCs?
Strange to be back at option square zero again. Still bullish, of course, on the stock but willing to trade around volitility.
jeewee3000
Active Member
Very helpful data. Mine were bought on the cheap lol. Highest strikes available. Lesson learned.
scubastevo80
Member
forgot to hit send on this at at 10am this morning, I'm sitting on 1 - 12/3 BPS 900/795 that was up over 70% (now close to 80%) and debating next steps. BCS premiums are not rich enough for me and I'm not touching strikes less than 1300s. If we would have gotten a pullback this arvo or get one tomorrow morning, I'd be happy to write more BPS around $900 but I'm not standing in front of the upside train this week or next.
corduroy
Active Member
I sold some 12/10 850/750 BPS today at the 12;45 dip for $2.70. I don't usually sell BPS on a strong up day but that's a great premium being that far OTM. Will be looking to add more throughout the week and some 900/800s when we get Elon selling dips or red days.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Travelling again, but this time for pleasure, so didn't get to watch the ticker closely today.
Set some orders at market open to close positions out for 12/3 at ~80% profit and they all filled. Then conditionals were placed for 12/10 to open BPS. Probably could have gotten better premiums, but opened 920/970 and 930/980 BPS for ~$4.50 - $5.00 premiums. Should hit my weekly income goals with those if able to close them out at 80% next week, so I'm happy with those trades.
Set some orders at market open to close positions out for 12/3 at ~80% profit and they all filled. Then conditionals were placed for 12/10 to open BPS. Probably could have gotten better premiums, but opened 920/970 and 930/980 BPS for ~$4.50 - $5.00 premiums. Should hit my weekly income goals with those if able to close them out at 80% next week, so I'm happy with those trades.
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