Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[InTheShadows]

With a bit of effort, you can discover the rolling options. Depending upon your trading platform, after hours, pretend to roll a BPS that is OTM, just ITM at STO or ITM at BTO. Then play with spread 50, 100, 200 and 300. You will discover your comfort level with rolling.

The real experience happens when you experience a huge drop such as last month with the Elon sale...

You can also use the spreadsheet I made to see what all of your roll options are with a few short clicks.

Wiki - Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

Holy dump in the crypto markets this evening. Hopefully that is not foreshadowing markets on Monday… I don’t really follow the crypto markets, but my personal logic based on the idea that cryptos are the new gold (hedge against crashes)….wouldn’t that mean if people are dumping cryptos, then...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ok campers, there’s still more pain out there. Unfortunately, I’m fully expecting to see @Artful Dodger ’s post tomorrow about hitting the 50-day SMA at 1072.69. Hopefully, that will be followed after the close by @Curt Renz ’s post about how closing ABOVE the 50-day SMA is a positive technical sign (please Santa, I’ll be good, I promise). I’m still hopeful that MaxPain will guide a return to $1145 by Friday, otherwise I just might have to accept defeat and take assignment on those 1145&1150 puts. Edit: I just hope we don’t fill the gap of 838-857 between Dec.21-22.

Its become obvious that major Wall St. analysts have decided to withold their updated estimates of Tesla's EPS until after the Q4 Conference call (some undoubtedly will wait for the 10-K). This has had the effect of deflating momentum in the SP rise (and conveniently allowing "preferred clients" of brokerages to load up on discounted TSLA shares).

IMO, now that we're back down to the 50-day Moving Average (about $1,172 atm), what's most likely going forward into Earnings (Wed, Jan 26) is that we ride the MA(50) for the next 15 trading days.

The MA(50) itself will descend gradually due to the high daily SPs from early Nov beginning to drop off the 50 day average. Estimated by the MA(35) below, it could be down to around ~$1155 in 15 days (Jan 26) if the SP stays relatively close to where its trading currently (ie: rides the '50)

This appears to be hedgies primary or 'go-to' strategy to brace themselves for expected blow-out earnings: they use uncertainty and buyer hesitation to drive the SP and the associated technicals down in advance, in order to blunt the rise when the good news hits.

They truly live hand-to-mouth. What a wasted life! working to make something fail. Sheesh.

GLTA. Cheers!

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Part of my problem is I'm flying during part of the trading day tomorrow, so no computer.

Go ahead and give me your account log in information and I will monitor your spreads for a tiny 5% fee. Can't be that much, right?

 

[Knightshade]

IMO, now that we're back down to the 50-day Moving Average (about $1,172 atm), what's most likely going forward into Earnings (Wed, Jan 26) is that we ride the MA(50) for the next 15 trading days.

50 day is 1072, not 1172... just a typo I'm sure but given people trade on info in this thread seems worth pointing out.

My -1050 put spreads certainly hope that remains a support

 

[intelligator]

50 day is 1072, not 1172... just a typo I'm sure but given people trade on info in this thread seems worth pointing out.

My -1050 put spreads certainly hope that remains a support

Thanks for pointing out the 50 day MA a hundred off ... I'm with you on hoping that the 50 day MA forms support. I have -1090/+890 for the 14th, 21st, 28th with the intent when I sold them to roll if needed. However, the 14th shows ~45$ premium as of last night, giving me time until $1045 or so. Would prefer to sit on it a day but am now sensing it may be wise to act swiftly on any relief after a sudden down trend, also consider adjusting the others as well, although those have more premium left.

 

[BornToFly]

What I might do, is use the great premiums I get rolling to Jan 28th to close some of my positions. So go from 800 to 500 850/1050 BPS for slight credit. Then I will have enough margin to open 300 new positions next week if things have stabilized. I would make more money rolling all 800 if the SP is above 1050 on the 28th. But that is a gamble at this point. I'm trying to follow Yoona's rule of defense of capital....

 

[BornToFly]

Hmm, Nasdaq green so far. I don't know if the Shorts can push TSLA down much more if the rest of the market its green today. Might hold off and watch for now....

 

[ABC2D]

Hmm, Nasdaq green so far. I don't know if the Shorts can push TSLA down much more if the rest of the market its green today. Might hold off and watch for now....

I'm with you. going to hold off at least for PM to see where we end up going. Macros, though, not helping. Still holding BPS for 01/14:
-1040/+840
-1030/+830
-990/+790

 

[wooter]

Well, good thing I closed my jan7 positions yesterday morning

 

[OrthoSurg]

Rollin my -p1050 7/1 to next week.
Let’s see if the same thing will happen to my -p990

 

[Drezil]

rolled my 30x 1050/1000 BPS to next week for 6$
they now form a 30x 1050/900 BPS with the "safe" 30x 1000/900 i already sold ^^

Hurts to see 800k drain from your 28/1 calls (that were gained on monday) .... i wish i had closed them

 

[wooter]

We've gone over a few put walls, I wonder what is going on and when we bounce back.

 

[BornToFly]

This seems ridiculous. I rolled my 1/14 850/1100 out to 1/28. Will wait on my 850/1050 until we breach 1000.

 

[UltradoomY]

We've gone over a few put walls, I wonder what is going on and when we bounce back.

View attachment 752622

Something that I - and others - have noticed for a long time is that MM's typically do not protect Put Walls - only Call Walls.

Why would they do such a thing........

Well - if they can pick up shares for cheap ahead of blowout Q4 earnings and then sell them back at a huge profit it makes all their clients happy.

Tread carefully when using the walls as resistance.

If we go down any significant amount - slightly OTM leaps are preferred - 6 months to a year out.
They will gain value rapidly upon the ascent!

Of course this is not advice as we could just never go up again....

 

[strago13]

Lets see how strongly 1000 holds....might be rolling my puts. I am sitting at 990 right now for 1/14.

This is why I NEVER chase the stock price on the wave up because with Tesla there is always an equal and violent wave down.

Not Advice: Find what you think is good support and duck behind that line.

 

[juanmedina]

no stress

 

[corduroy]

So we are supposed to be greedy now when everyone is fearful? It's almost looking like total capitulation in growth stocks.

My 1/14 BPS are not looking well, but I'm holding off any moves until next week.

 

[kabin]

Those wide BPSs work in periods of upward momentum. Today the markets seem to in a period of down trend, increasing volatility, and correlated underlying price action.

 

[InTheShadows]

Well, my YTD repair rate metric is starting the year off great. It’ll probably be at 50% by the end of the day.

Rolling out my BPS, attacking the ones with the highest midpoint first. Have one more set at 1005, until I’m done with the 1000’s.

Rolling most sets down by $10. I don’t see this lasting long. Collecting some nice credits though. Hope these are not words I will be eating next week.

 

[kabin]

So we are supposed to be greedy now when everyone is fearful? It's almost looking like total capitulation in growth stocks.

My 1/14 BPS are not looking well, but I'm holding off any moves until next week.

It's been like that for a few weeks now. But think about how long greed has been in play and how far things could drop from here. Best case might be market prices moving sideways.