Friends, what a roller coaster this month has been. I started the month up $40k but, after a tumultuous few weeks and after finally having to take some lumps on a 1050/950 BPS this morning, I finish the month up $1k. Like many of us here, I was so confident in Tesla’s execution and the markets interpretation of their execution that I did not foresee us being under $1200 after ER (let alone back to $8xx). I realize now that I was trading in a vacuum without fully considering the macro picture. I think many of us will reflect on this time and think about all of the “signs” that indicated a massive correction would hit the major indices (like all of the snake oil being pedaled in the crypto space, Nadella selling, Elon selling, Chamath selling, inflation, persistent supply chain issues, Tivoboy’s trip back from the future, etc…). I managed to ignore most of the signs by holding strong to my conviction that the market would have no choice but to see what we see in Tesla. A sustainable energy giant growing at 50%/yr with enviable margins and a few newly minted giga cash presses. I mean, if real interest rates are negative and inflation is at 7%, where else would one put their money? Sadly, the massive turn around we were all expecting has not materialized yet and once again I am reminded that the goal is not to simply know the rules of the game but to make the rules of the game. To be the house.
@Yoona put it nicely up thread but I was definitely more of the gambler and less of the house this month. Lesson learned.
In any case, I managed to survive the month relatively unscathed but battle hardened. (I have some bald spots on my beard that need tending to but no worse for the wear). Funny enough, my reptile brain was tempted to open additional positions today to start to make up for this crappy month, but when that thought reached my cortex it was promptly shut down (it was definitely that and not my wife screaming at me to shutdown my computer). At this point, I think I’m going to take a break for a week and reevaluate my strategy going into next month to ensure consistent success. Thanks again to everyone for being so willing to share their experiences and for providing their insights; you saved this noob a lot of heartache.
Btw, did anyone else hear that Tesla may have supply chain issues this year? (
@BornToFly you called it buddy; Elon usually gets a pass from me for his overall brilliance but IMO he was a net negative on the call and it left me wondering how it would’ve gone had he just left it to Zach and company to handle it). C’est la vie.
TL; DR: The market is rife with idiots and I’m starting to think I may be one of them. The house always wins. Be the house.