Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[TheTalkingMule]

Ouch, that post was definitely premature. Oops, that 2% chance means that maybe I’ll get steamrolled this week. Oh, well, will just roll to next week. BTW, big buys at 14:21 today. Hmmmm, so anybody know what the whales know that we don’t? China numbers? Elon got 100% Twitter funding and bought back shares? /s

It has seemed that around 3 or 3:30 shares have popped on the day before important Fed speeches.

My assumption was that traders waited for the text of the speech and decisions to be locked in then jump in and try to front run. But this speech ain't for two days.

I think we're just at the turning point of a big game of chicken. Certain PEs are absurdly low, but the world keeps going down the fear track. We saw that with FB being oversold. *sugar* company, but they're making money and do t deserve an 11 PE.

The market is picking winners. Great news for TSLA IMO. There are enough intelligent people out there to realize TSLA is the top 3yr return from here by far.

Could still go the other way, but I've been suspicious of this doom and gloom for about a year now.

 

[Discoducky]

I want to sell weekly calls and I like how big the $1000 call wall is, but worried about the pending annual shareholder meeting announcement/stock split.

Feel like it might be a rain dance if I did.

 

[BornToFly]

I'm trying really hard to sit on my hands now until Wednesday. If there is a big rally, I want to be sure my 1050s don't get steam rolled (only about 16% up from here). Right now I'm preserving enough buying power that I can always buy them back and double the numbers of BCS at a higher strike if necessary to manage. I made my target income for the week, so if I can open additional positions after Wednesday it will just be gravy.

 

[dl003]

correct... please do ***NOT*** use my data for trading purposes - i'm a newbie/wannabe/pretend analyst!

i myself won't have IC this week and is cash only on weekends, i don't trust the sp action lately and the feds are speaking again

only daytrading CC for now... closed 5/6 1000 CC at +59% and tomorrow is maybe 5/13 1000 CC

about that. I ran the number myself and unfortunately I came with a result much lower than 98%. Out of all trading weeks that had both a Friday and a Monday since 1/1/2020, only 36 weeks had Friday closing between the Monday high and low. Out of a total of 104 weeks. Please feel free to check my work.

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Per my result, the chance of Friday closing lower than ... is ...

Monday high - 70/104
Monday - Tuesday high - 84/116
Monday - Wednesday high - 92/117
Monday - Thursday high - 98/112

 

[juanmedina]

I sold a few $1005's again for $2.5. I will sell more tomorrow and maybe some on Wednesday.

 

[Criscmt]

I went from the $200k+/week club, to the $20k+/week club. But that's ok if I don't loose $Millions in a bad week anymore....

20k+/week using how much capital/margin?
In other words, what is the weekly % gain you are trying to get to, % of the capital/margin you are putting at risk?

 

[Yoona]

about that. I ran the number myself and unfortunately I came with a result much lower than 98%. Out of all trading weeks that had both a Friday and a Monday since 1/1/2020, only 36 weeks had Friday closing between the Monday high and low. Out of a total of 104 weeks. Please feel free to check my work.

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Per my result, the chance of Friday closing lower than ... is ...

Monday high - 70/104
Monday - Tuesday high - 84/116
Monday - Wednesday high - 92/117
Monday - Thursday high - 98/112

my formulas use Tue/Thur if Mon/Fri are holidays, maybe that is the discrepancy

for ex, Jan 17 Mon is a holiday so 18-21 is a "Mon-Fri" so i won't miss that week's data

 

[BornToFly]

20k+/week using how much capital/margin?
In other words, what is the weekly % gain you are trying to get to, % of the capital/margin you are putting at risk?

Right now I'm using about $3million in margin. Staying about 20% OTM and hoping for only 1% weekly gain. When the SP rises I can increase to $4.5m.

 

[jeewee3000]

Opened some Iron Condors for this Friday, with intention of closing this out today or tomorrow before FOMC meeting.

790/800/1000/1010 @1.55

 

[jeewee3000]

FYI, folks should take a look at the options chains for July vs August and later. There is a big step change in prices in the higher strikes ($1400+). Looks to me like the MMs are preparing for the split, but what do I know. Would definitely appreciate thoughts/analysis from the experts: @Artful Dodger @Papafox @adiggs @Chenkers @jeewee3000 @Yoona @dl003

Edit: Thanks @bkp_duke for the advice. I’m only selling such risky CCs right now because I have sold cash-secured puts at 970s, 990s, 1000s, and 1100s (various dates out to Jan 2023). I’m trying to make some premiums on the CCs and will roll up and out as needed, maybe eventually catching or surpassing my CSPs. I’m feeling a bit like the @Max Plaid of old (before he made so much and got conservative).

The pricing on the call side seems to be inflated indeed starting July and especially August 2022, as compared to the put side.

If we were to reach ATH in the coming weeks I will ponder some longer dated covered calls (a few months) to:
- hedge against downside shorter term;
- play the IV crush that should happen after split.

I do say 'ponder', so I'll only go for this strategy if call premiums are really inflated and SP is quite high. I don't want to stand in front of a moving train.

But since many bulls are expecting the split to result in a huge SP increase, I'm quite skeptical that this will play out exactly as imagined.

 

[Discoducky]

I want to sell weekly calls and I like how big the $1000 call wall is, but worried about the pending annual shareholder meeting announcement/stock split.

Feel like it might be a rain dance if I did.

Yep, I'm staying out of CCs for the time being; even weeklies. I'm much more confident in selling puts, getting premiums and potentially getting assigned as I'm happy to acquire at or below the 200MA. Looking into the past, TSLA hasn't stayed below the 200MA for long (in the grand scheme of things).

I currently have weeklies at 800, 860 and 880 for this friday and 900, 950, 1000 and 1050 for Aug and Sept.

200MA is purple if that isn't obvious...

NOT ADVICE

 

[juanmedina]

I went all in on 1005 and 1010cc's for Friday

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I went all in on 1005 and 1010cc's for Friday

 

[phantasms]

I rolled my Friday p930 to next week p920 for $12 credit. It's not exciting but keeping with my $1k/week goal it seemed like a no brainer stress free move. Happy to get them at 920 if it happens.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm creeping up to my BPS expiration of 5/20. These are the spreads I widened and rolled out for small credit from the Jan/Feb massacre.

Sitting at:
$1050/880
$1050/870
$1000/850

My hope is to obviously see a post-fed run up and expire these, but realistically I know the best move may be to punt for credit if/when the opportunity presents itself.

I want all this cash margin back available in my IRA, but don't absolutely need it, so probably gonna play it safe. Especially since I've now moved entirely from shares into LEAPs and calls.

A SP of 950-970 lets me roll the worst of the bunch. I think I'll move the last more conservative bunch today if we spike up a bit and I can maybe tighten up the spread and move out to Jul/Aug.

My BIG concern with all of this is 2Q results. I'm confident they'll be near 1Q results, but there's gonna be plenty in there for shorts to distort. And it'll be summer, low volume and very easy to manipulate. Is it a far better idea to roll out to Nov and catch 3Q earnings as well? I consider that a lock to be $1200+ or at the very very least expire put contracts like these.

Am I being overly recession worried here?

 

[scubastevo80]

Am I being overly recession worried here?

Its a fair worry to have. We're one quarter into negative growth, and we could have another given inflation and continued supply chain woes. Given the magnitude of moves up and down, I'm not even going to try to predict where we'll be at the end of the month, but I personally wouldn't be feeling confident with those BPS. Hopefully a floor somewhere above $950 gives you the ability to buy more time.

I rolled one of my January problems out to Jan '23 980/830, so take that for what its worth. As of now, I'm looking to be out of options for any major news pertaining to inflation/rates, P&D and earnings. I closed my 5/6 BCS that was 90% and I'm sitting on a rolled BPS 780/700 that's up 79%. I'm likely to close this one late today/early tomorrow in the event there's a bad macro reaction to the Fed meeting.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Its a fair worry to have. We're one quarter into negative growth, and we could have another given inflation and continued supply chain woes. Given the magnitude of moves up and down, I'm not even going to try to predict where we'll be at the end of the month, but I personally wouldn't be feeling confident with those BPS. Hopefully a floor somewhere above $950 gives you the ability to buy more time.

I rolled one of my January problems out to Jan '23 980/830, so take that for what its worth. As of now, I'm looking to be out of options for any major news pertaining to inflation/rates, P&D and earnings. I closed my 5/6 BCS that was 90% and I'm sitting on a rolled BPS 780/700 that's up 79%. I'm likely to close this one late today/early tomorrow in the event there's a bad macro reaction to the Fed meeting.

Fortunately for me I was just in the beginning phases of learning to sell BPS when the *sugar* storm hit. I did pile on a bit when the premium was "too good to resist", but even then I still had spare cash to widen the spreads so I could roll out for "free".

Having sold all shares, I still have more cash to widen again and roll in an emergency, so I think I'll take a hybrid approach. Gonna move the most conservative ones out to Aug for credit, widen and roll the worst to Nov, and sit on a few another week to see what happens.

Thanks for listening. Like a lot of folks, I just need to type this out to rationalize it in my head.

 

[EVNow]

Got assigned my 1025 puts, so will be selling calls until the SP comes back up

 

[JustMe]

Got assigned my 1025 puts, so will be selling calls until the SP comes back up

What was the expiration date?

 

[ReddyLeaf]

Got assigned my 1025 puts, so will be selling calls until the SP comes back up

Interesting. I know we’ve gone over these types of assignments before, but I just thought of a variable that hasn’t been discussed: weeklies vs monthlies or quarterlies. I would posit that dATM weeklies have a higher probability of assignment vs quarterlies. Traders do weeklies while hedgers or investors do quarterlies. I was $200 ATM in June 2021 (almost $300 at one point), and was never assigned early. Food for thought.