Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Drezil]

The fact AAPL was leading the bull trend and is a market moving stock is not good news.

Exactly my fear..

At the same time QQQ (295) and SPY (390) were trying to break the bear-trendline. The even hovered slightly above it so a close above would be very bullish ... and then AAPL came and everything went below the bear-resistance again...
QQQ now again at the middle of the trend-channel (current 290, channel 285-295), SPY closer to turning bearisch (current: 383; Channel 380-390)...

Thing for AAPL: 150 was a 1-year long support/resistance-line. Breaking it would indeed be very bullish. We were above before the news. Now at 147 again

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think the bears were just looking for anything to trigger them and it was this. The news itself isn't very bad at all, nothing really, but they jumped on it

I think that's the most likely scenario. Bears certainly don't want the narrative of a rebound gaining too much traction. Asian markets were way up. Europe up. Crypto recoving.

AAPL has been rallying strong. Knocking them down and all of QQQ is the smart move. Maybe it'll repeat again tomorrow and y'all can get two BCS rounds in by Tuesday afternoon!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Exactly my fear..

At the same time QQQ (295) and SPY (390) were trying to break the bear-trendline. The even hovered slightly above it so a close above would be very bullish ... and then AAPL came and everything went below the bear-resistance again...
QQQ now again at the middle of the trend-channel (current 290, channel 285-295), SPY closer to turning bearisch (current: 383; Channel 380-390)...

Thing for AAPL: 150 was a 1-year long support/resistance-line. Breaking it would indeed be very bullish. We were above before the news. Now at 147 again

The 295 qqq trend line seems to be as hard to attain as orbital flight for blue origin.

This is a green day that feels like a red day. Trend reversal momentum breaking from the big bears.

 

[Chenkers]

How many cont

How many contracts do you buy/sell on average with that level of premium?

Currently somewhere in the range of 40-70 overall, although I sometimes split them across different strikes. The number of BCS are usually matched by a similar number of BPS and then whatever shares I have free to match CC's to. It's still a far cry from the bad old days when I'd sell a few hundred BPS at a time (but a lot safer).

 

[Drezil]

what should i say ..

 

[scubastevo80]

View attachment 830155

what should i say ..

Short the short garbage... I like your style! I feel bad for anyone buying that ETF - you'd effectively be paying 115bps in fees for a single swap to bet against 50% YoY growth.

 

[Drezil]

Short the short garbage... I like your style! I feel bad for anyone buying that ETF - you'd effectively be paying 115bps in fees for a single swap to bet against 50% YoY growth.

I can't. They are listed as LSE-ETF (London). No shortable shares in sight (i.e. other people willing to lend them out), no CFDs, no Options on it... And warrants usually collide with 871(m) of the IRS-code .. but as this is in london maybe there is a way..

 

[intelligator]

OT: sell points and pivot points

I've been leveraging pivot points , resistance and support markers. Monday I typically don't sell 5 DTE. What I observed yesterday and the flip today is that when price bangs up against one resistance or support above or below the opening price, that is an opportune time to sell into strength CC or CSP. Monday it was at about 748 to sell CC, today it was the 711 support point to sell CSP. Of course it is easy to make this judgement after the fact. However, yesterday could have been quite profitable as a day trade to buy back a sold CC at the resistance.

I know these are guide markers only.... interested to hear using pivot points similarly? My target is the 7/22 -675 CSP at the next breach of the 711 or 698 support points.

 

[ReddyLeaf]

OT: sell points and pivot points

I've been leveraging pivot points , resistance and support markers. Monday I typically don't sell 5 DTE. What I observed yesterday and the flip today is that when price bangs up against one resistance or support above or below the opening price, that is an opportune time to sell into strength CC or CSP. Monday it was at about 748 to sell CC, today it was the 711 support point to sell CSP. Of course it is easy to make this judgement after the fact. However, yesterday could have been quite profitable as a day trade to buy back a sold CC at the resistance.

I know these are guide markers only.... interested to hear using pivot points similarly? My target is the 7/22 -675 CSP at the next breach of the 711 or 698 support points.

Good observations. A typical day spread is $30+/- and if timed properly can be more profitable than when mistimed. I decided to sell one -c755 Monday AM at $21.00. I should have sold more, because they were below $14 recently. I’m still holding, expecting the IV crush to help on Thursday. Unfortunately, it looks like TSLA is being massively held down, perhaps to keep those c750s from going ITM.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Final steamroller warning before earnings. Why not keep those sold call spreads far out this week and make .5% rather than the usual 1.2%? They're coming for your money!

 

[BornToFly]

On what alternate universe should F and GM be up almost 6% while TSLA is almost 0?

(Asking for a friend)

 

[adiggs]

On what alternate universe should F and GM be up almost 6% while TSLA is almost 0?

(Asking for a friend)

Random market gyrations of course. There will be another day reversed, and I'm confident / certain that over a longer window of time, TSLA will be up a lot more.

 

[vikings123]

On what alternate universe should F and GM be up almost 6% while TSLA is almost 0?

(Asking for a friend)

I finally get to agree with our dear friend Gary. Twitter drama is clearly impacting the stock today and will likely be at the forefront until the case is heard(trial set for October).

OT, if anybody is looking to play NFLX earnings the premiums are not too bad. I sold some 240 naked calls for this week's expiry. I got $2.40.

Full disclosure: I got burned badly with these one off non TSLA trades but I like my odds with this one.

 

[Matias]

Here's a thread where I try to find academic evidence about the possible profitability of selling the options.

Expected Option Returns

Hopefully this thread is appropriate although it is meant to be generalized Expected Option Returns discussion. I'm not looking for anecdotal evidence but academic research. I'm interested if there is scientific evidence to suggest that writing options could have higher risk adjusted return...

teslamotorsclub.com

 

[cbh03]

Anyone have any plays around the earning report?

I still have open 7/22 805 CC (opened 7/14). I was hoping to close before the earnings report, but am fine with rolling these if the SP breaches 800.
I closed out 7/22 450/600 BPS for ~70% gain yesterday (opened 7/14).

 

[MikeC]

For this week, but I may close some tomorrow if the stock price cooperates:

2x -p675/575
2x -p650/550
2x +c800/-830
10x -c855 CC

 

[BornToFly]

Anyone have any plays around the earning report?

I still have open 7/22 805 CC (opened 7/14). I was hoping to close before the earnings report, but am fine with rolling these if the SP breaches 800.
I closed out 7/22 450/600 BPS for ~70% gain yesterday (opened 7/14).

Iron condors 20% OTM on both sides.

 

[Knightshade]

I've got some -600/+500 put spreads and some -865 CCs, both opened Monday though at different times (got the CCs sold near the top, the puts a little earlier than optimal)

The best the calls got to any point today was about 60% profit, and the puts were odder, the short leg was about even despite SP being $20 higher and 2 days of time decay since sold so spiking IV I guess....and the long leg was up like 50% again despite the 2 days of decay and higher SP.


I might consider closing the calls before ER if they get more in the 70-80% profit range maybe...but I'd be 100% comfy leaving them open and if we magically spike up $120+ Thurs/Friday I'm fine rolling em.

Will probably leave the put spreads open unless they move a lot more into green overall tomorrow, again not really concerned about the chances of these getting into trouble.

 

[Yoona]

top = Probability ITM

• this week 7/22 - pink (ie calls 15% chance expiry 800+)
• next week 7/29 - blue (ie calls 22% chance expiry 800+)

bottom = latest gamma

 

[Yoona]

OT: sell points and pivot points

I've been leveraging pivot points , resistance and support markers. Monday I typically don't sell 5 DTE. What I observed yesterday and the flip today is that when price bangs up against one resistance or support above or below the opening price, that is an opportune time to sell into strength CC or CSP. Monday it was at about 748 to sell CC, today it was the 711 support point to sell CSP. Of course it is easy to make this judgement after the fact. However, yesterday could have been quite profitable as a day trade to buy back a sold CC at the resistance.

I know these are guide markers only.... interested to hear using pivot points similarly? My target is the 7/22 -675 CSP at the next breach of the 711 or 698 support points.

my CSP is at -p690 and i don't care if assigned

i use Fibs to help determine res/supp; for ex, today's High was 934am and the quick drop that followed was cue to STO 7/22 830cc for quick +37% daytrade; yesterday was +54% daytrade on 820cc

the secret is:

• be patient to wait for big move up or down
• this is always followed by multiple small pullbacks
• wait for a local pullback to reach res/supp
• confirm using MACD (sometimes 50SMA) that the reverse is about to start
• buy shares if at supp
• add 1% Trailing Stop Loss (this also takes care of the sell once res is reached)

today is busy and profitable...