If TSLA tops out at 930 on Monday, I will expect 800 to be tested shortly after. Watch for 840 to act as the first support. A bounce to 880 should then fail for a second leg down to 800. I dont see us falling lower than 800.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Regarding gamma squeezes, my observation is that it is as likely to happen on Friday as it is on Monday. On Monday, buyers are more enticed to enter the trade which means higher volume to get the job done. However, on Friday sellers may find it difficult to re-position and hedge, as @Drezil has eloquently explained. On Monday since there is a lot of time value left on each option, call sellers can say, roll a call up $40 at a cost of 50% of the premium. On Friday, rolling a near ATM calls up $40 will cost 95% of the remaining premium so they just cut the loss.
At times like this I find most Twitter personalities to be wildly unreliable. Judging by market sentiment and the number of high PE stocks trading above their 200 EMA, I think its irresponsible to suggest TSLA will trade above 1000 next week. After the March FOMC, TSLA and SPY were 900 and 445, respectively. Right now they are 900 and 412. Thats progress. I wont be one pushing it here. Believe me, after Q3 ER I think sky is the limit. Not here. Most big techs have had their EPS reduced YOY. Market is not bullish. If market is not bullish, TSLA wont push 1000+. When SPY goes to 430s, market will be bullish again.
At times like this I find most Twitter personalities to be wildly unreliable. Judging by market sentiment and the number of high PE stocks trading above their 200 EMA, I think its irresponsible to suggest TSLA will trade above 1000 next week. After the March FOMC, TSLA and SPY were 900 and 445, respectively. Right now they are 900 and 412. Thats progress. I wont be one pushing it here. Believe me, after Q3 ER I think sky is the limit. Not here. Most big techs have had their EPS reduced YOY. Market is not bullish. If market is not bullish, TSLA wont push 1000+. When SPY goes to 430s, market will be bullish again.
Studying max pain call walls seems to suggest there is going to be a ton of rolling for the >=$900 calls **IF** macros and any other players keep the buying volume high. Then we could build more squeezing/covering trading
I'm watching the 200MA at $909 and also SPY to hit $416.
Whatever happens though, it will be interesting. We seem to be either breaking out of the bear market or this has been a big head fake, but I feel it is former due to other economic indicators (low unemployment and a seemingly peak to inflation in March...I don't like the negative GDP however)
For the first time, I allowed a blown up CC to get exercised. In the past, I either rolled or closed out for a loss. First, let me say that I have an unhealthy negative reaction to losing shares. 
It hurts way more than covering the CC for a loss.
I now have some cash to write a CSP, which I intend to do, as this was the point of allowing my shares to get called away. The only thing is, I want to be a bit more aggressive with strike price. Optimally, I would write CSPs either ATM or slightly in the money. Because the SP ran so far past my CC strike price, I am in a position where I would have to sell a few more shares to provide enough cash in the account to cover the CSP.
What to do? Any non-advice would be appreciated. Sell shares Monday morning and write the CSP immediately? Or watch to see if the SP retraces a bit? Or am I missing a different possible play? This is in a non-margin IRA account.
It hurts way more than covering the CC for a loss.I now have some cash to write a CSP, which I intend to do, as this was the point of allowing my shares to get called away. The only thing is, I want to be a bit more aggressive with strike price. Optimally, I would write CSPs either ATM or slightly in the money. Because the SP ran so far past my CC strike price, I am in a position where I would have to sell a few more shares to provide enough cash in the account to cover the CSP.
What to do? Any non-advice would be appreciated. Sell shares Monday morning and write the CSP immediately? Or watch to see if the SP retraces a bit? Or am I missing a different possible play? This is in a non-margin IRA account.
I read that the seasonal adjusted GDP was +2.1%, only the direct measured was negative. But i got no intuition for seasonal variation in that area. So take it with a huge grain of salt
Are you looking to get assigned and buy shares, or are you looking to keep the premium and put to expire otm?For the first time, I allowed a blown up CC to get exercised. In the past, I either rolled or closed out for a loss. First, let me say that I have an unhealthy negative reaction to losing shares.
I now have some cash to write a CSP, which I intend to do, as this was the point of allowing my shares to get called away. The only thing is, I want to be a bit more aggressive with strike price. Optimally, I would write CSPs either ATM or slightly in the money. Because the SP ran so far past my CC strike price, I am in a position where I would have to sell a few more shares to provide enough cash in the account to cover the CSP.
What to do? Any non-advice would be appreciated. Sell shares Monday morning and write the CSP immediately? Or watch to see if the SP retraces a bit? Or am I missing a different possible play? This is in a non-margin IRA account.
Those two Twitter accounts deserve to be muted forever. Both of them are just spewing somewhat random targets and theories all the time.
The short version is that I trust we are invested in the best way to mitigate the coming economic cycle downturn which is X amount of years away and a high liklihood if the Fed continues to push hikes beyond 5%...
The longer version...since it is the weekend...I looked into the 2008 bubble a bit more as a friend of mine is currently sitting 80% cash as they see a CDS (Credit Default Swap) set of dominos falling in the next two years causing another major recession.
So I look into the way back machine to see this interesting graph
With the Fed currently raising rates as fast as they are, it seems very similar to the raises (**Between June 2004 and August 2006, the Fed raised interest rates again and again, because they were "...growing more uncomfortable about inflation".**) prior to the housing bubble where we also had fairly low unemployment
My thoughts are that, even though we are in a better place now with 'too big to fail' banks have better regulations, I do see a coming wave of bankruptcies with these sudden rate hikes if we get to the 5 to 6% plateau as before. This time it might not be as much housing as it might be the auto industry failing. It is so crazy that $F does NOT make money on selling cars, but rather on "financing cars" (NOTE: The Q2 SEC filing is STILL not available; Is this normal?)
It is like we are forcing an economic cycle "trough" stage. It is not a matter of "if" but "when" we get there as this cycle keeps repeating and is somewhat necessary.
Obviously, my thesis is that Tesla can weather this better than any other company due to their high margins, crazy high demand and robust multiyear supply chain contracts...etc
Ideally, I would keep the premium at least for a few rounds. But I have no issues with getting assigned shares. Something like ATM weeklies with SP rising slightly every week so I can keep increasing the strike price and ultimately get assigned shares at $1,000+.
Then you could avoid the need to sell shares by using a really wide bps.. like 600 points wide. It'll pretty much behave like a cash secured put, but need less cash backing.
I got
Non-Chinese banks are only involved in 15% of financings - but if the Chinese inner economy collapses it could put much pressure on the supply chain again...
I have not followed up on this and I don't know the trustworthiness of the channel. But keep your eyes open if that is indeed true and the CCP just had the lid on it for now...
I'm not sure if it's a matter of markets not being open or my account doesn't have the appropriate trading levels. But Schwab is indicating I don't have enough cash to cover the following spread:
Short 8/12 P900
Long 8/12 P600
My account has approximately $77K in cash. This is in an IRA account. This should require $30K in cash to secure this spread, no? Currently, this account is a Option Level 1 account. Does this trade require Level 2? The below is Schwab's option levels.
Level 1
Level 1 can be used for long options to take advantage of speculative directional opportunities. All of level 0, plus:
Long calls
Long puts
Long straddles
Long strangles
Brokerage, including non-retirement business accounts and trusts
Retirement plans
Individual Retirement Accounts
Level 2
Level 2 includes the addition of spread trading, enabling you to take advantage of more defined risk strategies. All of level 1, plus:*
Vertical spreads
Long calendar/diagonal spreads
Long ratio spreads
Butterfly spreads
Condor spreads
Iron butterflies
Iron condors
Brokerage, including non-retirement business accounts and trusts
Individual Retirement Accounts
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
On Fidelity you need "Level 2 + Spreads"
Thanks, that's what I thought. I thought I had done a BCS in this account before, so I wasn't sure whether it was different for a put spread versus a call spread. Will get level 2 approved.
Edit: this is a SEP IRA account that I set up when I was self-employed. I'm no longer self-employed. Schwab is indicating that they can't approve Level 2 options trading for a SEP IRA account if I am no longer self employed. I guess I need to just roll this account over into my rollover IRA account before I can trade spreads. And looking back, I see my previous spread trades were in my rollover IRA account, which is already approved for level 2 options trading.
Edit: this is a SEP IRA account that I set up when I was self-employed. I'm no longer self-employed. Schwab is indicating that they can't approve Level 2 options trading for a SEP IRA account if I am no longer self employed. I guess I need to just roll this account over into my rollover IRA account before I can trade spreads. And looking back, I see my previous spread trades were in my rollover IRA account, which is already approved for level 2 options trading.
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but I'm not sure if it's smart if you're planning to buy the shares anyway.. gonna be hard to make the difference between current share price and 1k sp from premiums, unless we trade at this range for a while..
I don't like it when TSLA and the NASDAQ are so divergent. Going to try to sell BCS at the open (1080 or 1100 short legs), and then BPS on a dip if the rest of the market pulls TSLA down.
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