A tale of a CC trade gone bad:
Much is made on this site of the dangers of CCs and having your precious shares ripped from your hands in untimely fashion as the stock rockets away to Jovian heights. This a a real concern, especially with TSLA which snatched shares left and right from regretful CC sellers in 2020 as the stock did indeed imitate the latest SpaceX launch. However one must consider that even with continued volatility and SP upward pressure, it is doubtful that the stock can again engage in such a stratospheric rise due to the large numbers now involved. That is not to say that TSLA will not continue to spurt up and achieve the status of largest market cap in the world. I know many of us believe this is inevitable based on the continued innovation pushes from Tesla and the lackluster responses from the legacy OEMs.
I believe that the main reason people on TMC are so fearful of an assigned CC sale is that most of the population here is subject to US tax laws and also sitting on HUGE capital gains. I don't have any six dollar shares anymore (sigh. another story), but I am sitting on a lot of shares that are 95% capital gains. A forced sale would wallop me in NYC with a minimum of 35% (LTCG 20%, Medicare 3.8%, NYS 9%, NYC 4%) which would make it most difficult to market time my shares back (I would almost certainly fail and lose more) and just mess with my mojo and compounding.
So I have been selling CCs 20+% outta da money for usually well under a dollar (fifty to sixty cents depending) on a regular basis and thanking my lucky stars that I have enough shares for this to translate into what the majority of the population would consider some serious cheddar. But based on the heroics of this thread, I decided to start being more aggressive with shares owned in my IRA, which bear no such tax risks. Selling near ATM calls. And in this case selling exclusively ATM calls for one hundred of my shares. But I also agreed to stick with the idea that these shares must not sell! Sorry for the long preamble.
For the first few weeks this turned out great, with me harvesting large numbers in comparison to my other way out of the money CCs. After all, selling for 26 and closing out for 14 a day later to look for another opportunity makes my weekly 20% OTM sales look sickly with their returns. There is a time commitment I cannot reliably guarantee, however due to my other obligations in life.
I will not track the specific catalysts that were moving the SP here, as TSLA always seems to have some monster catalyst coming and usually decides to move dramatically for 'no reason' at random as well.
On July 20 I STO a 7/22 740 C for a credit of 25 with the SP at 742. Was betting that evenings catalyst would not amount to much, a bet that had been working out pretty well. July 21 did not agree as the SP rocketed to 817 where I knew my CC was already in trouble so I rolled to a 7/29 750 C for a 2.8 credit hoping things would cool off. On July 25 with the SP holding at 810 I rolled to 8/5 750 C for a 8.1 credit.
The stock gave me a dip on July 26 to 777. Still being underwater, I decided it was time to pump up the strike price for future returns. I rolled out two weeks this time to an 8/19 770 C for a 5.15 credit. The SP began to skyrocket again and by July 29 with the price at 886 I began to despair that my CC's long term fate was bleak, so I concentrated again on increasing the strike with a roll to an 800 10/21 C for a 23.27 credit.
On August 2 with the SP at 910 and the stock split coming fast I guessed (incorrectly) that a continued run was in the cards, so I milked the time bank again, rolling out to 1/20/23 850 C for a credit of 14.
On August 9 the SP had dropped to 850, but I still didn't think much of my CCs chances come January 20. I bit the bullet and went ballistic, cashing in all my chips to seal my CCs disastrous fate with a roll to a June, 21 2024 1250C for a credit of 43.
I know the experienced denizens of this thread would have had better results with this, perhaps even the foresight to close the position for a small loss as the SP skyrocketed out of the 700s, but one of the rules I try to adhere to is to never roll for a debit. I must always be paid for my time.
But now my shares are milked and locked in, and I have to twist for next two years over my lost opportunities, gnashing my teeth and beating my chest. Or do I?
Let us examine my 'disastrous' foray into the world of CCs.
I began with a SP and a call strike of 740 and ended at 1250 for an increase of 510 points.
I received credits of 121.32 with my desperate and impatient rolls. If my shares are called away two years from now at 1250 my overall gain will be 631.32 for an 85% gain from where I started. 1250 is an all time high SP from where we stand right now. TSLA may well be at 2500 come June 2024, and I will be crying over my lost profits, but looking back over my history of trading, would that all my disastrous decisions had yielded an 85% gain over two years!
I guess the overall point of my post is that yeah, selling CCs can definitely hurt your returns if you have a monster stock, but I don't understand when people paint it as some sort of reckless casino roulette wheel that could lead to catastrophe. If you manage it and do your best to keep your shares, you will get returns even with an SP that is punishing you, and even if you don't get more involved and let them go to play the wheel.
Oh, and one more thing. I do believe that 2025 strikes are dropping in September.