bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
590/615 BPS opened on the dip for $1.95 credit.
Now when to close . . .
Now when to close . . .
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
jeewee3000
Active Member
With Tesla @ 700-1K range, I have been playing with margin against stocks that are 1/10th - 1/8th TSLA SP. (Auto manage the margin , as long as I don't go over board)
AAPL, NVDA , BABA on the SOLD PUT side on margin. Just looking for opportunities in depressed market. I will take ownership of these if assigned (in most cases)
Was able to get a few TGT 150 Jan 23 PUTS with $17 premium today. cheers!!
On TSLA just selling CC's when SP spikes .. waiting patiently
AAPL, NVDA , BABA on the SOLD PUT side on margin. Just looking for opportunities in depressed market. I will take ownership of these if assigned (in most cases)
Was able to get a few TGT 150 Jan 23 PUTS with $17 premium today. cheers!!
On TSLA just selling CC's when SP spikes .. waiting patiently
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Yes - plus I am prepared to roll if need be as a rising share price would help my troublesome bps.
May inflation numbers come out Friday. Macros driving the TSLA train this week, so whether we go up or down just depends on what the market is expecting the numbers to be. Next week anything is possible, but I think the last week of June TSLA climbs before Q2 numbers are released. If they are bad, we are going to drop like crazy. If they surprise to the upside, then this ridiculous 6 month drop will be over. I'm trying to not regret my Margin padding sale of those CCs this morning. I might need it. It is tempting to buy them back at a small loss and pay for the loss by selling much higher strike CCs, but then if we do drop, I won't have done myself any favors. I need to stop staring at the ticker now until Friday....
I'm holding 610/650 BPS for this week along with 850CC. The BPS have been flipping between red and green all morning but I'll likely keep holding up until Friday. Depending on where we are then I'll likely close prior to the CPI figures coming out.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm trying to figure out a plan for earnings if we do somehow see a drop. Even a mediocre EPS print takes the TTM figure a good $2 higher, so a drop to just $600 post-earnings pegs us at a 65 PE. On consistent ~80+% yoy growth and crazy positive guidance.
SIXTY FIVE! I just can't wrap my head around that being possible when the entire world knows 4Q EPS will likely be double 2Q. We shall see.
The ihns pattern has form its right shoulder. I was looking for 685 but 690 works as well. 710 is a crucial level as it separates the 2 fib channels. Closing above 730 will be the signal we will run. My bet is we will sideway for a few more days and break out @ 720 instead. If we break 680 on high volume we will test recent low at 625.
Puts and calls all have net outflow this week, suggesting traders are getting out of their positions before the CPI print on Friday.
Puts and calls all have net outflow this week, suggesting traders are getting out of their positions before the CPI print on Friday.
Thanks so much for these graphics. Where are they generated? You, within your trading platform or another service? I agree that $720-$730 is the breakpoint, but I don’t see it happening this week, and probably not the next (triple witching), but watch out on Monday 6/20. This week seems like an easy $700-$720 MM manipulation.
A general note to others: I’m finally starting to realize how much weekly premiums I’m not collecting because of being forced to roll out OTM CSPs from earlier this year. It really sucks watching an easy $10-$20/wk in put premiums roll off every week, while my Jan23 -p1000s just sit there. There’s a lesson in there somewhere. Don’t fly too close to the sun.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Closed this out just now for ~74% profit. Very happy with that for a day trade.
I drew these channels and patterns on tradingview.com.
Made $14 trading today
Yes, fourteen
I did not expect that run up to $720 and struggled the rest of the day. But I’ll always take an up day
It’s wild days when seemingly knowledgeable and reasonable people are talking about a near term price range of $500-$900
Yes, fourteen
I did not expect that run up to $720 and struggled the rest of the day. But I’ll always take an up day
It’s wild days when seemingly knowledgeable and reasonable people are talking about a near term price range of $500-$900
You did better than me. If I was to buy back those 30X CCs I sold to pad my margin, I would lose roughly $57,000.... Of course if I don't buy them back, and the SP is 3,000 in June 2024, then I lose $6million - $676k premium = $5.32million.... But if the SP drops to 600 in the next month and I get margin called because I bought them back, then I lose even more....Made $14 trading today
Yes, fourteen
I did not expect that run up to $720 and struggled the rest of the day. But I’ll always take an up day
It’s wild days when seemingly knowledgeable and reasonable people are talking about a near term price range of $500-$900
Just wanna take a minute to nerd out on this beautiful TSLA chart.
As you can see, there are potentially 2 bullish patterns developing concurrently on the TSLA chart.
An inverse head & shoulder pattern with the distance between the head and the neck line approximates $170 (790-620)
If this pattern plays out to its fullest extent, we have a target of 970 (close enough to the infamous 975 support/resistance line). This is calculated by adding 170 to the neck line but since it's a slightly slanted neck line, we use 800 instead of 790.
The second pattern is is an impulse 5 wave move. The first wave started at 620 and ended at 792. The distance is 172
The 2nd wave went from 792 to 690 = 102. A 0.618 retracement of 172 gives a target of 106. Close enough
Now get this, a 3rd wave that extends 1.618x the length of wave 1 would have a length of 278. 690 + 278 = 978,
Essentially, these 2 patterns, while separate and occupying a super wide trading range, have targets within $10 of each other. How often does that happen? This gives me butterflies because it feels like there's some method and, may I add, genius to the madness that is TSLA price action.
As you can see, there are potentially 2 bullish patterns developing concurrently on the TSLA chart.
An inverse head & shoulder pattern with the distance between the head and the neck line approximates $170 (790-620)
If this pattern plays out to its fullest extent, we have a target of 970 (close enough to the infamous 975 support/resistance line). This is calculated by adding 170 to the neck line but since it's a slightly slanted neck line, we use 800 instead of 790.
The second pattern is is an impulse 5 wave move. The first wave started at 620 and ended at 792. The distance is 172
The 2nd wave went from 792 to 690 = 102. A 0.618 retracement of 172 gives a target of 106. Close enough
Now get this, a 3rd wave that extends 1.618x the length of wave 1 would have a length of 278. 690 + 278 = 978,
Essentially, these 2 patterns, while separate and occupying a super wide trading range, have targets within $10 of each other. How often does that happen? This gives me butterflies because it feels like there's some method and, may I add, genius to the madness that is TSLA price action.
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Path to riches*
According to the chart posted by @dl003 above, TSLA could reach $970 in about two weeks - 6/21. Just for fun, I checked the potential returns on July 1 exp. call options ranging from strikes of $700 to $950 (with today’s prices). The table below shows the value of these options as percentage of purchase price with share prices of $800,
$900, and $970 on 6/21.
Isn’t it beguiling?
Estimated returns from optionsprofitcalculator.com
*possibly
According to the chart posted by @dl003 above, TSLA could reach $970 in about two weeks - 6/21. Just for fun, I checked the potential returns on July 1 exp. call options ranging from strikes of $700 to $950 (with today’s prices). The table below shows the value of these options as percentage of purchase price with share prices of $800,
$900, and $970 on 6/21.
Isn’t it beguiling?
Estimated returns from optionsprofitcalculator.com
*possibly
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Trying to time this with calls is an old mule's(fool's) game that's really tough to nail. Obvious lows to obvious highs aren't allowed to happen logically by MM's. You'd need to be willing to keep doubling down and also hope some macro nightmare doesn't arise.
Best to stick to LEAPs from here. And as far out as you can swallow.
I have a bunch of Nov $1200c which I acquired when selling shares to lever up with LEAPs & calls. Here's hoping this run to $1000 begins soon and we can uncork the spring from there after 3Q numbers hit. Seems very likely to me if macro stays the se or improves.
I am waiting for IV to come down in the next few months in order to bug LEAPS.
If the IV for 2024 Jan/Jun call options can subside to ~40 (IV was ~40 in Oct-2021), these DOTM LEAPS (strike $2000) can be pretty cheap (about ~$10). If all played out well in 2023 with Berlin and Austin giga factories ramping up, we can have substantial gains.
Is it possible? Any suggestions/comments?
If the IV for 2024 Jan/Jun call options can subside to ~40 (IV was ~40 in Oct-2021), these DOTM LEAPS (strike $2000) can be pretty cheap (about ~$10). If all played out well in 2023 with Berlin and Austin giga factories ramping up, we can have substantial gains.
Is it possible? Any suggestions/comments?
scubastevo80
Member
IV on the Jun'24 $2000s is around 62% and on the $400s is 70%. I'm not sure we'll see that level of crash given the options volume that TSLA now sees, but perhaps enough people get burned and shaken out and we have further IV drops.
I'm worrying less about IV for my DITM LEAPs and more about indecision given the present uncertainty. I made some money selling TSLA around $930 in early 2020 and then buying back a few days later at ~750$ and did the same again after the July runup (at the beginning of the chart below). Not advice, but I did this using the RSI again to understand when stocks, including TSLA, may be oversold or overbought. I used the recent touchdown of about 30 to convert some shares to those LEAPS and will be buying more shares if we get below 30. Unfortunately I didn't use this when we were off the charts in November, but lessons learned. I think this is also a good data point for a sanity check to avoid FOMO trades and spreads.
Thanks for your reply!
I am concerned about the high IV. My personal best entry point for DOTM LEAPS is when both share price and IV are down significantly. Right now IV is too high. And you are right, given the TSLA being the largest options trading ticker, AND the macro, it requires a lot of patience for IV to come down. (Or it may not.)
Just is an example in mid 2021. In April and May 2021, SP was down at ~700 but IV was at 60%; so 22-June 1000 calls were expensive. But in Oct, when SP was crawling back from 600 to 700 and IV was at 40%, the 22-June 1000 calls were very cheap. This was an ideal entry point.
Anyway, I find this scenario most rewarding for a stock like TSLA with huge potential. Buy LEAPS when SP and IV are low.
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