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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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Do you guys think that we are going to run up towards the stock split? I know Google and Amazon didn't get a huge run up but this is Tesla who we are talking about lol. IV is really low in the low 50's. If the macro was good and there was no Twitter stuff it would be a no brainer. I wonder what some like Emmet is doing 🤔.
Well, since I bought a few OTM calls for the next few weeks….. I’m now certain that the SP will stay flat or go down.:mad:
 
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Based on what was reported in TMC about stockholder meeting. EM mentioned TWTR as if it was something that was going to happen. So if he did it would be for TWTR again. As you write, that requires lots of cash.

Again, while there was relentless bid hitting selling all day on high volume while the indexes were basically flat, I am not convinced this was EM. Sell the news, swing trading, FUD and bear raiding could have managed it just fine.
Watch the meeting. Elon definitely still wants twitter and has always wanted twitter from his public comments on it. He’s going to end up owning twitter one way or another.
 
I'm playing this for fun -
BTO - $1000C's for tomorrow exp (same ones I sold for $5.55 and closed for $1.50 a couple of days ago) for $0.80 each
BTO - $850P - $0.40 each for tomorrow exp
BTO - $1200's 08/19 exp for $1.75 each

Round trip for all of these is less than half of my profit from selling the $1000's earlier this week.

So everyone is welcome for the flat close tomorrow!
Was offline from the board but managed to eek out a nice profit on the $850's - out for $1.30 each
Kept the now "free" $1200's and let the $1000's calls expire.
Now what to do this week...

Thinking I will try and position for the split by looking at January 2023 calls that divide by 3 easily - the $1200's and also the $1500's have the highest open interest for my range and also seem pretty affordable.
So if you see the volume inching up - that's me!
 
Well, I did something totally different -
Went with the shotgun spread - All BTO Calls
08/26 - $1200's
09/23 - $1200's
10/16 - $1200's
12/21 - $1200's
01/23 - $1200's

This was quite fun - I haven't spent this much money on options since before I learned to be the "house"
no stop loss until after 08/17 for sure.
 
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Well, since I bought a few OTM calls for the next few weeks….. I’m now certain that the SP will stay flat or go down.:mad:
Sold enough of the +c930s & +c960s to make a little profit (even considering my early buys on Friday). Still holding a few for the “big” profit. Really like that the MMD was only $10 so far, so I’m waiting for another leg up before selling the rest. Today’s action so far suggests that the hedge pirates are sitting on the sidelines.
 
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I can't decide if the 1,000 call wall will hold this week. That is only about 10% up from here, 1 hr down and still an entire week of trading left....
I hate to leave a lot of money on the table, but one bad week can wipe out income from a couple months of safe trades.

Edit: Market makers have gotten really good at playing chicken, and might hold the SP down until a few days before the split. Who knows.
 
as of right now, 60% IV and 2 STDDEV (95.45% probability) ITM is 8/12 800-1032

1659970273437.png


not advice, do not use for trading
 
I read many worrying about/expecting a SP increase running up to the stock split.

Whilst a modest SP seems very likely, I think it will be a big nothingburger since the split didn't come out of nowhere this time.

When the 3:1 split was first "announced" via Twitter, we saw some gains IIRC. Then months passed and we voted on it in the shareholder meeting. All this was expected and priced in IMO.

Also the % of shorted shares vs the float is much lower now than it was last split. So what if the "total dollar amount" of shorted TSLA-stock is high? Percentage of float is what matters to create a squeeze. (Because that is what people are implying: a squeezy runup to the split).

The shorts were warned way ahead of time and had enough time to prepare. They are not caught off guard and therefore there will be no squeeze.

The thing driving us higher now is better market sentiment regarding macros/inflation/recession and maybe positive response to TSLA Q2 ER and guidance.

TL;DR: the $1000 call wall for this friday is fine.

(Note: the above is my opinion and I cannot be sued for your losses should you sell agressive cc's which turn out to be steamrolled if I'm wrong :p)
 
When rolling ITM CC, I am trying to write for same credit as strike improvement. Right or wrong, it's been playing out well. For instance, a 8/12 855 cc can be rolled to 8/19 for 4.65 , for slightly less credit than improvement. If I roll two weeks out, the 19th it's roughly the same, close to $5 for $5 improvement. That works well up to Sep 2nd at 870. The 9th of Sep, there is a drop-off to average $4.25 weekly (improvement of $20 for $16.93). I know the expectation is we rocket. I have BPS with short legs at 1150 for December, couldn't be happier. Not knowing whether we go up or down, I do know that the deeper ITM the sold CC are, the less forward roll credit I've been able to get, eventually the shares will be called. I am considering rolling this contract to Sep 2nd, locking in the credit I aim for weekly per contract and improve strike to capture the appreciation if/when called away. Side benefit, it's a contract I won't need to watch weekly... one I will review expiry week. It's an arbitrary minimum roll credit capture ($5) I set for myself. Any reason why I'd not want to take this approach, instead keep evaluating and rolling weekly?
 
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