Posted in Twitter thread, but bears repeating here:
If Elon were going to sell, it would have been when the stock was ~300, right after it came out that he will close TWTR under the original terms. I'm in the camp that he's not selling anymore (but I've been wrong before).
And I've said this before, but it bears repeating - he MAY NOT need to sell any TSLA to buy TWTR. The key is this: if he picked his share lots carefully when he sold the last two times, he should have zero tax burden. I'm specifically referring to the shares he bought when he exercised options late last year. Tax was paid on those options exercises, and his basis on those new shares would be higher than the price he sold at (actually generating him a tax loss to claim).
Now, if he was stupid and sold old old old share lots with a basis of like $10 or something, well, he's screwed and will pay > 50% tax on those.
Again, the devil is in the details. And only Elon and his brokerage know what lots were picked for those share sales.
But the difference is literally billions of dollars, possibly as much at $10B.