Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[SebastienBonny]

The open looks like to be giving some opportunities for next weeks CC-contracts as this rise is just a reaction to the jobs number....

 

[Discoducky]

That unemployment macro thing has pushed pre-market wildly green (+3%)

Looking to do this when it spikes/capped at maxpain for next Friday (~$227.50)

 

[SebastienBonny]

That unemployment macro thing has pushed pre-market wildly green (+3%)

Looking to do this when it spikes/capped at maxpain for next Friday (~$227.50)

View attachment 870994

Had the same strike on my mind, looking for 2.4 premium.

 

[Knightshade]

My perspective is if a specific method of TA was reliably predictable, everyone would already be using it and it'd suddenly stop being useful.

The fact you ask any 10 TA guys what's the "important" numbers and you get 10 different answers doesn't help either. (Oh, I trade the 5 minute XYZ... No, you need to focus on the 1 minute ABC! Nonsense, the 20DMA tells you all you need to know! Foolishness, the Fib numbers on alternate tuesdays is the key! and on and on)

Likewise everyone has the same historical data, but they all produce WILDLY different charts depending how they draw their own lines... "See, this is a wildly bearish head and shoulders pattern here..." "Naah, that is an incredibly bullish Pantene Pattern!"

 

[phantasms]

Had the same strike on my mind, looking for 2.4 premium.

Same. That didn't go as planned. lol

 

[ammulder]

With many of us facing Margin calls from our BPSs, whether the SP may continue to go down is extremely relevant. Some of as are also experimenting with day trading stock rather than selling options, hence the Fib levels, etc. It all belongs here as we try to learn from each other and are trying to figure out a "reliable" source of income for retirement. It is the natural evolution of this thread.

I feel for you — margin calls suck.

But I would also prefer to keep TA in TA threads and day-trading stock out of the options thread. No offense to any TA fans but personally I don’t really believe it has good predictive power, so to me it’s reducing the value of this options thread. No reason it can’t live in its own threads for those who feel differently.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

With many of us facing Margin calls from our BPSs, whether the SP may continue to go down is extremely relevant. Some of as are also experimenting with day trading stock rather than selling options, hence the Fib levels, etc. It all belongs here as we try to learn from each other and are trying to figure out a "reliable" source of income for retirement. It is the natural evolution of this thread.

The problem is that no one can predict if the SP will continue to go down or not. As @Knightshade said, if you ask 10 TA-experts what the stock is going to you'll get 10 different answers. Any TA-expert that can correctly predict the majority of stock movements will not be sharing their expertise on Youtube or TMC but will be sipping cocktails at the pool enjoying the hundreds of millions he made.

I understand the need: we as investors (speculators?) crave for something to hold on to during uncertain times. But TA is not the holy grail. Ofcourse there is place for some TA in this thread, as there is for some macro news. But in moderation. The ratio between TA posts and options posts has been getting out of whack. Especially with daily TA-updates and links to Youtube-analysts.

There's a reason there's a dedicated TA thread. It was created a long time ago after TA started to take over the main thread. The same should not happen to the options thread, even if some of us are becoming day traders.

 

[dl003]

My perspective is if a specific method of TA was reliably predictable, everyone would already be using it and it'd suddenly stop being useful.

The fact you ask any 10 TA guys what's the "important" numbers and you get 10 different answers doesn't help either. (Oh, I trade the 5 minute XYZ... No, you need to focus on the 1 minute ABC! Nonsense, the 20DMA tells you all you need to know! Foolishness, the Fib numbers on alternate tuesdays is the key! and on and on)

Likewise everyone has the same historical data, but they all produce WILDLY different charts depending how they draw their own lines... "See, this is a wildly bearish head and shoulders pattern here..." "Naah, that is an incredibly bullish Pantene Pattern!"

Only 10% of traders can consistently make money. When I post my charts, I ask that they be judged by the result. If I'm consistently wrong, I won't be littering this thread with my failed approach.

 

[dl003]

The problem is that no one can predict if the SP will continue to go down or not. As @Knightshade said, if you ask 10 TA-experts what the stock is going to you'll get 10 different answers. Any TA-expert that can correctly predict the majority of stock movements will not be sharing their expertise on Youtube or TMC but will be sipping cocktails at the pool enjoying the hundreds of millions he made.

I understand the need: we as investors (speculators?) crave for something to hold on to during uncertain times. But TA is not the holy grail. Ofcourse there is place for some TA in this thread, as there is for some macro news. But in moderation. The ratio between TA posts and options posts has been getting out of whack. Especially with daily TA-updates and links to Youtube-analysts.

There's a reason there's a dedicated TA thread. It was created a long time ago after TA started to take over the main thread. The same should not happen to the options thread, even if some of us are becoming day traders.

Respectfully disagree, Fred. TA is not solely for day trading. By definition, option sellers are swing and position traders as we hold on to our position over(multiple)nights and sometimes for months. There're TA approaches that can tell me with high certainty whether we're going up or down or range bound, whether we've topped or bottomed and where the next top/bottom will be. These are essential for risk management.
I'm not Chicken Genius, telling people TSLA will go to 120-140 without any timeframe. I said specifically: 195 is my target for this crash leg. The bottom? 198.5. I'm not a god. I can't see the future but I'm certainly better than the average Joe when it comes to TSLA.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Respectfully disagree, Fred. TA is not solely for day trading. By definition, option sellers are swing and position traders as we hold on to our position over(multiple)nights and sometimes for months. There're TA approaches that can tell me with high certainty whether we're going up or down or range bound, whether we've topped or bottomed and where the next top/bottom will be. These are essential for risk management.
I'm not Chicken Genius, telling people TSLA will go to 120-140 without any timeframe. I said specifically: 195 is my target for this crash leg. The bottom? 198.5. I'm not a god. I can't see the future but I'm certainly better than the average Joe when it comes to TSLA.

And what is your timeframe for the 180, you mentioned (it is mine too, and expect it to roll out before christmas this year. Not sure though because of macro (more risk than opportunity on that front with China (Real-estate/Taiwan) Russia (Ukraine (Cherson=dirty boobytrap?)/Oil).

 

[dl003]

And what is your timeframe for the 180, you mentioned (it is mine too, and expect it to roll out before christmas this year. Not sure though because of macro (more risk than opportunity on that front with China (Real-estate/Taiwan) Russia (Ukraine (Cherson=dirty boobytrap?)/Oil).

Right now 180 is not a real target as the important condition has not been met. We need to break 198.5 first. I know this sounds kinda silly. We break 198.5. How long do I think before we get to 180? Actually no, even if it was 140 or 150, the condition is still the same. If we break 198.5, then my time target is in late November.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Right now 180 is not a real target as the important condition has not been met. We need to break 198.5 first. I know this sounds kinda silly. We break 198.5. How long do I think before we get to 180? Actually no, even if it was 140 or 150, the condition is still the same. If we break 198.5, then my time target is in late November.

Indeed, forgot to mention, I have posted on the Dutch forum [Edit] Yesterday [/edit] that first 200 must be crossed for that to come into play! (Repeated such today) Thanks

 

[WattsHappening]

Whelp, I got assigned on my June 2023 short 350/400 BPSs overnight. This being in an IRA account and fully invested, I had to fully unwind the position. Sold the 350s and the shares put to me. I timed it fairly well (selling the shares at $223 and selling the puts when SP was $219.50. Avoided max loss, so I guess I should consider that a small victory?

In any case, I'm done with BPSs for the time being. It was a costly, but worthwhile lesson.

EDIT: and of course, now the SP is $217.

 

[dl003]

Daily recap:
Yesterday I predicted that TSLA would bounce around the 217 area which is along the support trendline running from the 2020 presplit peak. During Wednesday trading hours following Powell's Q&A session, TSLA dipped as low as 215, shedding nearly 6% in one day while SPY only gave up 2.5%.
It's only reasonable to expect this relative weakness to spill onto Thursday. In fact, TSLA opened Thursday as low as 210 before shooting up to 220, closing the day roughly unchanged from the closing price the day before. SPY lost around 1%.
What is the lesson here? TSLA is not weak compared to the general tech index. The stock only displayed relative weakness on Wednesday because it had a mission: to get to 217 as quickly as possible. Having studied TSLA for the last 2 years, this is a unique tendency of TSLA. Once an upside/downside target has been identified, TSLA will get there at a breath-taking pace, displaying temporary but extreme resilience / weakness on the way. Once the target has been reached, its behaviors can change quickly, punishing both bulls and bears who jumped on the bandwagon too late. Today is a prime example. Overzealous bears who thought they got TSLA by the balls were trapped within the first hour of trading @ 210. Joke on them, we're not ready to give up this trendline yet.
It looks like we've completed the first down leg of wave B/2. We should get a bounce into next week mid term election, targeting the 224 area before turning sharply down again to complete wave B/2.
I don't know if this is a B or a 2 yet. B is the second wave in a corrective sequence. 2 is the second wave in an impulsive sequence. Impulses are much more bullish/bearish than corrections. Obviously, we'd prefer this to be a wave 2. The most important criteria for a wave 2 is it cannot terminate beyond the starting point of wave A, which is 198.5. Therefore, 198.5 will be the most important level to watch until the chart shows selling pressure of this wave has been exhausted.View attachment 870867

I don't think this is the end of the bounce yet. We'll go again on Monday. May not go any higher than 224 but don't be worrying into the weekend just yet.

 

[juanmedina]

I don't think anyone knows, but at some point people will start to notice the elephant in the room that's continually beating consensus, growing 50% per year and printing cash like the FED did the last few years...

For my side I'm not inclined to let go shares down here, well other than the lower priced ones that I'm currently selling calls against, my plan is to keep scraping in small weekly gains and try to keep my nose ahead, regardless

On that front, yesterday rolled this week's 10x -c220's to next, -c230, for +$0.70 - I thought this was a pretty good deal as I get a little more cash and +$10 on the strike. Still have 10x -c220's in play next week too, and as mentioned previously, am OK for one set of 10x to exercise and beef-up my cash-on-hand, sell some puts and take less risk on the call side

Taking quite some discipline for me not to write weekly 100x -cATM for $100k, strong chance they'd expire any given week right now, but would be annoyed if that was the week we got a bear-market rally... get away with that 10 weeks in a row, then you don't care any more... NOT ADVICE!!

I feel bad that I am making more money by buying puts than by selling calls. The premiums are tiny and IV is so low that I don't even feel like selling calls although my account can really use some cash. I bough $200p for next week for $1 this morning and they are already $2.6. Like you I am trying not to lose my shares at such low prices.

For this week my few 230cc and $200p for worked out.

 

[euro2012]

I don't think this is the end of the bounce yet. We'll go again on Monday. May not go any higher than 224 but don't be worrying into the weekend just yet.

So this is a time to buy some calls?

 

[vikings123]

Respectfully disagree, Fred. TA is not solely for day trading. By definition, option sellers are swing and position traders as we hold on to our position over(multiple)nights and sometimes for months. There're TA approaches that can tell me with high certainty whether we're going up or down or range bound, whether we've topped or bottomed and where the next top/bottom will be. These are essential for risk management.
I'm not Chicken Genius, telling people TSLA will go to 120-140 without any timeframe. I said specifically: 195 is my target for this crash leg. The bottom? 198.5. I'm not a god. I can't see the future but I'm certainly better than the average Joe when it comes to TSLA.

Plus there is nothing wrong in hedging as a long term investor. Or if you are looking to add to your position there is nothing wrong in picking the right levels to set your buys.

The moves in the market these days are very quick so it's important to be nimble.

I have followed one particular trader and I'm not going to mention his name here again but I'm a big believer in TA after having understood the process and seen the results. I agree that we don't follow 10 traders. I have always maintained that the days of opening BPS positions and forgetting about them are over. All these positions now require active management and TA helps with that.

 

[vikings123]

I don't think this is the end of the bounce yet. We'll go again on Monday. May not go any higher than 224 but don't be worrying into the weekend just yet.

IMO 210 level will be key. They keep coming for weekly puts. If that does not hold I'm not sure we see 224 next week.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Sure looks like we're heading to 200 already.. Didn't see that coming

 

[dl003]

IMO 210 level will be key. They keep coming for weekly puts. If that does not hold I'm not sure we see 224 next week.

I'm looking at a double bullish diversion on the 30m timeframe. A convincing diversion requires the stock to make a lower low than 210. It could be running an extended flat or running flat formation, both of which have wave B to extend 1.236x of wave A. As such, the target is conveniently 207.