chiller
Member
I started selling options 13 months ago, and yes, I can confirm that the last 12 months have been a struggle.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Yer his probably right. Elon capitulating.
AquaY
Member
well he feels 173 is support and we should bounce then due to capitulation. I hope he's right. But I think we can easily drop into the 160s.
Of course CPI is the important part. I hate relying on hope but I hope its a good number. I actually just hope its not worse than expected.
Margin Calculator says I'm good to 135. I don't know if I should sell more shares at this level while they are still worth something in case we keep dropping, and then try to buy them back on the climb out of the hole. Of course that will generate long term capital gains.... 
I thought this was a very good discussion about TSLA tanking and Elon buying and running Twitter.
I think it’s likely that Elon sold today and my guess is he’s done selling for now. That and S&P futures up by almost 0.2 % should make for a better day tomorrow
I think it’s likely that Elon sold today and my guess is he’s done selling for now. That and S&P futures up by almost 0.2 % should make for a better day tomorrow
Isn't that super arbitrary? You think he sold today and that his done. Could you elaborate a bit on the reasoning. Especially the reasoning on why his done, since the reason why you think he sold today I guess is big red + big vol.I thought this was a very good discussion about TSLA tanking and Elon buying and running Twitter.
I think it’s likely that Elon sold today and my guess is he’s done selling for now. That and S&P futures up by almost 0.2 % should make for a better day tomorrow
With share price around 180 later in the day, I rolled 185/155 BPS for this week to 183.33 / 153.33 for next week. Being somewhat ITM I feel there's a good chance that the position will finish OTM if I'd let it go for this week. However decided to roll now anyway in case we keep dropping. Before sitting down to do the roll I wanted to also review a 2 week roll - see if that would get me a bigger strike improvement. Then I forgot
The expiration date is still close enough that the spread value will move rapidly in my favor if we do get some sort of a bounce.
The 275 csp in Jan and Feb are starting to look like they'll need another roll soon. They had a couple $ worth of time value when share price was closer to 200 - now more like .50 or less. It's hard to tell when they're farther out and so far ITM - the b/a spread is engulfing the time value.
The expiration date is still close enough that the spread value will move rapidly in my favor if we do get some sort of a bounce.
The 275 csp in Jan and Feb are starting to look like they'll need another roll soon. They had a couple $ worth of time value when share price was closer to 200 - now more like .50 or less. It's hard to tell when they're farther out and so far ITM - the b/a spread is engulfing the time value.
I don’t know if I can believe anything Ross says. He is not exactly very sharp when it comes to these things. The problem with his argument is Twitter has what 6B in cash so it does not make any sense to sell now unless he has other plans. The bridge loan idea makes the most sense to me. I’m still wondering why he would not sell some SpaceX shares. I know it’s private and all but he also owns more than 40% of SpaceX. Today’s TSLA price action has completely baffled me especially after the morning bounce. It sure seemed like Elon was back at it again. Maybe he sold the additional 1-2B that was needed for Twitter purchase. It is really set up badly from a TA perspective so a bad CPI report will be bad. I don’t think we have seen capitulation yet.I thought this was a very good discussion about TSLA tanking and Elon buying and running Twitter.
I think it’s likely that Elon sold today and my guess is he’s done selling for now. That and S&P futures up by almost 0.2 % should make for a better day tomorrow
Having given it more thought I’m getting concerned about what’s happening with Tesla primarily related to China’s economy. Rob also talks about it and it is cause for concern given we had the price cuts first and then additional incentives for inventory cars.
Im actually hoping to go all cash and trade like @Yoona using a different process that I have now become very comfortable with and have had really good success. CPI report will obviously be important and if that’s above expected I will definitely get out and reassess. Even if the CPI report is good Im planning to sell half of my portfolio and sell some ITM calls for the rest. Half of my shares have a purchase price of 250-315 and the losses will help offset gains I had this year.
Sorry for the rambling but sometimes it helps to write out your thought process.
Thanks for reading
Legally he has time until Friday.
If CPI print is good tomorrow and market rallies till Christmas to ATH I am giving $100 bills to every homeless man or woman I come across the street for the rest of my life.
And I’ll pay for Twitter blue and post a video of me every time I do so.
Why did I close my CCs when we reached $200? We are at 177… I expected a bounce.
I’m so stupid.
I am still expecting a bounce… I am probably crazy.
And I’ll pay for Twitter blue and post a video of me every time I do so.
Why did I close my CCs when we reached $200? We are at 177… I expected a bounce.
I’m so stupid.
I am still expecting a bounce… I am probably crazy.
Don't get too excited. If Elon is truly still selling you could see the Nasdaq and other growth stocks like NVDA rally and TSLA just lie still like a dead dog.
My reasoning is based on the discussion in the linked video, recent reports of his sales, and the price action today which seemed to me like someone was intent to sell millions of shares today (perhaps ahead of cpi report I suppose). but of course we don’t know who it was. I suspect that the drop was helped along by short selling. The speculation in the linked video is he was selling to either pay off $4-5 billion of short term loans for the Twitter purchase or as a cash cushion to support Twitter which may be losing over $200 million per month as advertisers flee. It looks like he has raised more than enough to keep Twitter afloat even in a recession for a few years.
Well, it’s just like my opinion, man.
Protective puts at 185p are now itm, but I can't sell them because then I don't have enough margin anymore.. I might just exercise these.
I just want to get out of my sold options now.. I'm getting sick of all this drama.
And all this Elon selling, he's been selling from the start of this year. Is really the only way for him to sell dumping billions worth of stock in a few days?
I'd imagine he could set up a plan and sell over the course of a few months, little bit at a time.. maybe I'm wrong. But definitely feels like there was never any plan.
I just want to get out of my sold options now.. I'm getting sick of all this drama.
And all this Elon selling, he's been selling from the start of this year. Is really the only way for him to sell dumping billions worth of stock in a few days?
I'd imagine he could set up a plan and sell over the course of a few months, little bit at a time.. maybe I'm wrong. But definitely feels like there was never any plan.
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AquaY
Member
Elon sells in the worst way possible
he does not have to sell in the open market and usually huge blocks like this are sold in private placements.
When he first sold and crushed us because he had to pay huge amounts of taxes( the highest in American history )I felt he either didn’t know because he didn’t speak to anyone on how to sell or he was doing it to make a point that everybody would know how much taxes he had to pay.
That was the first time. After that fiasco to do it again with his Twitter fiasco seemed like he just didn’t care.
Then he said some thing about it was important not to have an emergency sale in the future, which I took to be he wouldn’t do this again but I guess it kind of meant it was important not to have an emergency sell for him to pay for Twitter expenses because he’s doing it or did it again
perhaps he doesn’t want to do these block trades off market because he gets in trouble with the SEC often and let’s be honest, the government hates him, so he’s worried about having investigations or what not. I don’t know , this is way beyond the little guy that I am
It’s the Niagara Falls chart. The barrel we are in is about to either hit the rocks when we hit the bottom or we are lucky and we land in water and bounce.
I had 336k margin left yesterday morning. My portfolio dropped 250k yesterday and my margin left this morning is still 199k from a 7% fall from the stock which was 13.5% fall with my underwater put contracts getting drawn in the Mariana fossa. I can sustain another 10% drop before being margin called. The I have a CAD145k in an account that was intended to pay house renovations, we just changed all the windows and doors for the house, got heat pumps installed for more energy efficiency. The kitchen and the floors were delayed because of supply problems so instead of changing it this month they delayed us to March… I could convert that to USD105k to cover margin for another 5.3% drop in the stock price.
So emergency funds are now at risk to be used to cover to the greatest open market shares dumping of all time.
What are the odds of the stock dropping another 15% after dropping 20% in 5 days? I really don’t know but Cory said in his TA video that we are extremely oversold and should see a bounce. But how the f can you see a bounce when there are endless shares being dropped at market price every day.
Now, our only hope is CPI…
My other option is to poison my
Portfolio by selling ITM CCs but that that point in the lowest of the year with the 20% recent drop it’s just too late to act. I expected a bounce to sell CCs again but it never happened.
If the stock price goes to $150, then Ibget margin called and start selling stocks or closing underwater puts I sold when the stock price was 59% higher. Or I sell 150 ITM CCs right now but then the SP will rally as soon as Elon is finished selling. It’s impossible to know.
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Dan Ives has cut PT to $250 and removed Tesla from Wedbush "Best Ideas" list, FFS
I’m not a big fan of Dan but he is right about Twitter and institutions read these reports. Our institutional ownership was already low compared to other mega tech stocks. And IMO these institutions will either cut their losses or stay on the sidelines especially given today’s macro.
I’m just livid over the timing of his sales and the words we heard from him at the Baron conference. I don’t know how anyone can say that Elon was not pumping. I don’t mean to go all TSLAQ but damn I would have never guessed we would be in this position today even with the Q3 delivery miss. Long term story does not change but I was bracing for a painful 12-18 months and it’s already exacerbated by the Twitter distraction.
We are at a point where all rips will be sold as shorties will happily provide all the liquidity. It looks like Elon has run out of all 4D chess moves.
edit: Hope CPI comes to our rescue.
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