Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[EVNow]

At a macro level, I am mindful of the fact that the "X date" for the U.S. debt ceiling is now being discussed as early June. Though the markets have largely ignored the black swan of a US default, I am starting to eye the possibility of market volatility as we get closer to June without a resolution.

We'll see the usual drama till the 11th hour. But since Chamber of Commerce will remind that every last penny from corporate America will disappear for both the parties in case of default, they will pass the bill finally - even if it means it will have to be a bi-partisan bill that fringe of the majority caucus won't support.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Put an order in before open to close 7/21 220 CC for 5, but got closed under 4 (sold for over 8 yesterday).
Too bad we’re down here right now, but no open contracts right now anymore.

 

[dl003]

For what it's worth, this is exactly what wave 2 should feel like:

"Here we go again, more price cuts!"
"EV credit may go away after all!"
"Elon wasn't kidding, was he? TSLA is going to sell cars at 0% gross margin!"

Seems like things are not any better than 4 months ago, doesnt it? Soon enough the stock is going to run, leaving people in total denial. I think we're gonna see 250 in 2023.

 

[adiggs]

A bonus from today - down 10% triggers the uptick rule. I expect tomorrow to be flat as a result, and maybe up.


If I were market regulator for a day, that would be the first and easiest thing I would do -- reimplement the uptick rule for all tickers, all the time. Market makers can still sell short to buyers buying at the top of the bid/ask. Buyers that don't want to buy there won't have a market maker to help them out.

Short sellers can sell all they want at the top of the bid/ask, but that'll require buyers willing to pay the bad end of the sales range. And market orders that aren't picked up by others.


EDIT: In that spirit, and this being such a strong down day, open 145/135 put spreads for next Friday for .50.

 

[EVNow]

162 seems to be some kind of a major support level. SP at 162 even though Nasdaq is going down in the last 30 minutes.

Wicked Stocks mentioned 161.63 as a "session containment".

Daily Trader didn't have anything near 162.

ps : As soon as I posted this, SP went down below 162

 

[gabeincal]

Seeing heavy OI for 150p for 4/21.

View attachment 918596

So somebody DID know something. I had a feeling that this heavy 150p OI and the subsequent rising of its volume from 33.3k to 65k would be a magnet. I wouldn't be surprised if we touch 15x today or tomorrow. Then probably a reversal next week..

 

[gabeincal]

And in that fashion, here are two more heavy put OIs for the upcoming months.

05/19 heavy on 180:

06/16 unusually heavy on 100(!):

 

[vikings123]

For what it's worth, this is exactly what wave 2 should feel like:

"Here we go again, more price cuts!"
"EV credit may go away after all!"
"Elon wasn't kidding, was he? TSLA is going to sell cars at 0% gross margin!"

Seems like things are not any better than 4 months ago, doesnt it? Soon enough the stock is going to run, leaving people in total denial. I think we're gonna see 250 in 2023.

I still think holding options or LEAPS is risky. Yeah we could see 250 but we could also see 100 especially if macros don't improve. The one thing that is different about this time is the bulls also seem to be finally giving up. I'm not very optimistic for the next few months. The shorts are piling on and given where we are technically I see more pain.

The ER call also was not your typical upbeat tone. FSD or Bust was basically the message and I don't think investors will want to buy TSLA in an uncertain environment.

 

[gabeincal]

And in that fashion, here are two more heavy put OIs for the upcoming months.

05/19 heavy on 180:

View attachment 930319

06/16 unusually heavy on 100(!):

View attachment 930320

Looking into a broader picture:

NVDA heavy on 200p for 5/19 and 6/16. It is also VERY heavy on 600 strike calls for 6/16
AAPL very heavy on 130 and 140 puts for 5/19 and super heavy on 130 puts for 6/16
SPX crazy heavy on 4000 puts for 5/19 and 6/16

 

[Cherry Wine]

I still think holding options or LEAPS is risky. Yeah we could see 250 but we could also see 100 especially if macros don't improve. The one thing that is different about this time is the bulls also seem to be finally giving up. I'm not very optimistic for the next few months. The shorts are piling on and given where we are technically I see more pain.

The ER call also was not your typical upbeat tone. FSD or Bust was basically the message and I don't think investors will want to buy TSLA in an uncertain environment.

This call reminded me of either the Q4’21 or Q1’22 (can’t remember which) call where Elon intimated that Tesla was shelving a “Model 2” in favor of robotaxis. The stock price reaction to that call was similarly terrible.

 

[dl003]

I still think holding options or LEAPS is risky. Yeah we could see 250 but we could also see 100 especially if macros don't improve. The one thing that is different about this time is the bulls also seem to be finally giving up. I'm not very optimistic for the next few months. The shorts are piling on and given where we are technically I see more pain.

The ER call also was not your typical upbeat tone. FSD or Bust was basically the message and I don't think investors will want to buy TSLA in an uncertain environment.

All valid. However...

Stocks cant drop if there're no more sellers. Late 2022 made sure of that. Stock price doesn't always follow fundamentals and I think the crash to 102 was a massive overreaction by the market and people who bought down there, who are still holding, have already taken into consideration all the headwinds that TSLA will face in a recession. Once again, I'm not surprised at all by all the disappointment from the bulls since I've expected this to happen since January/February. The correction after the first spike off the low always feels like the sky is falling again. Remember early June 2021 when rumor had it that demand in China had halved? And that marked the 2021 low? Yet, when I predicted this would happen I was met with skepticism: "just a story you tell yourself to justify your bias."

Will we see 100? I don't think so. Like I said numerous times. This wave structure does not support a deep retracement, unless Q2 ER is worse. But, but, but. Think about this. TSLA has always dropped after Q1 ER because these months are seasonally weak for auto. Why suddenly get all bearish just because the stock does what it's always done around this time every year?

 

[Jim Holder]

All valid. However...

Stocks cant drop if there're no more sellers. Late 2022 made sure of that. Stock price doesn't always follow fundamentals and I think the crash to 102 was a massive overreaction by the market and people who bought down there, who are still holding, have already taken into consideration all the headwinds that TSLA will face in a recession. Once again, I'm not surprised at all by all the disappointment from the bulls since I've expected this to happen since January/February. The correction after the first spike off the low always feels like the sky is falling again. Remember early June 2021 when rumor had it that demand in China had halved? And that marked the 2021 low? Yet, when I predicted this would happen I was met with skepticism: "just a story you tell yourself to justify your bias."

Will we see 100? I don't think so. Like I said numerous times. This wave structure does not support a deep retracement, unless Q2 ER is worse. But, but, but. Think about this. TSLA has always dropped after Q1 ER because these months are seasonally weak for auto. Why suddenly get all bearish just because the stock does what it's always done around this time every year?

Reading between the lines, it seems then STO 6/23/23 -C200 on any pop or DCB in the next few days is a decently safe bet, correct?

 

[Jim Holder]

And in that fashion, here are two more heavy put OIs for the upcoming months.

05/19 heavy on 180:

View attachment 930319

06/16 unusually heavy on 100(!):

View attachment 930320

Can you help me understand the purpose when people buy puts above current price (such as 5/19 $180), isn’t that asking for trouble to be put shares early above current market ($160) or is it a bullish bet that TSLA will be over $180 by 5/19/23?

 

[dl003]

Reading between the lines, it seems then STO 6/23/23 -C200 on any pop or DCB in the next few days is a decently safe bet, correct?

I'd rather have a set level for the first, second, third, fourth, etc... bounces to sell calls into, instead of just saying "every bounce". Once wave 2 is complete, wave 3 can begin and although it may seem impossible now, we can break out of 200. I don't know what needs to happen for that to follow but I know there will be telling signs of it happening if it happens. Right now the first level to sell calls into if we bounce from here is 170. Next is 180.

 

[Jim Holder]

I'd rather have a set level for the first, second, third, fourth, etc... bounces to sell calls into, instead of just saying "every bounce". Once wave 2 is complete, wave 3 can begin and although it may seem impossible now, we can break out of 200. I don't know what needs to happen for that to follow but I know there will be telling signs of it happening if it happens. Right now the first level to sell calls into if we bounce from here is 170. Next is 180.

Thank you

Godspeed to us that $200 happens sooner than later (hopefully summer).

 

[MikeC]

A bonus from today - down 10% triggers the uptick rule. I expect tomorrow to be flat as a result, and maybe up.


If I were market regulator for a day, that would be the first and easiest thing I would do -- reimplement the uptick rule for all tickers, all the time. Market makers can still sell short to buyers buying at the top of the bid/ask. Buyers that don't want to buy there won't have a market maker to help them out.

Short sellers can sell all they want at the top of the bid/ask, but that'll require buyers willing to pay the bad end of the sales range. And market orders that aren't picked up by others.


EDIT: In that spirit, and this being such a strong down day, open 145/135 put spreads for next Friday for .50.

I used to think the uptick rule would help, but just the other week there was this story about Goldman Sachs: Goldman Sachs fined $3 mln by FINRA over mismarking short sale orders.

Fined $3 million for 60 million orders marked long instead of short - that's only $0.05/order. Although only ~12,335 of those were actually in violation of the uptick rule, it still shows that the rule can easily be violated and, if actually caught, the punishment is a slap on the wrist 5 years later. No idea how often it gets violated and not caught. I don't have much faith in the rule anymore.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Of course I took care of the last -P (not to big of a loss) early and sold some -P 137.5 for June and -C200 for June to cover. Still think the shorts will have it short term and although @dl003 ’s heartwarming comments feel logic and good, remember the power shorts applied until januari, beyond any logic. Since then they’ve let it run up, and now you watch the news, being extremely negative even while almost all analysts are at plus 200 stockpricetargets. That was equally so in November and December. The only thing that will keep the stock from doing a sub 100, is that now after moody’s and S&P ‘s upgrades institutions will wait a bit but not for the shorts to let everybody dump, because they aleady have been buying and don’t like a rinse and repeat to make them look foolish. I hope that more retailers wil truly hold, but a lot came in on higher SP. They will not all diamond hand.
All in all 157 bottom would be nice but 143 is such a big gap, begging to be closed, as I stated earlier. (Interest higher longer and other big companies maybe reporting badly or giving lower outlook next days.)
today‘s red solid candle does not signal trust.

 

[intelligator]

... Right now the first level to sell calls into if we bounce from here is 170. Next is 180.

Seems reasonable given the strong full court press today... some of us long TSLA may not see sunny days for a while. Heck , i bought 200 at 207.5 last week, oh well. Any pop Friday, I may consider -c170 or +c175 for the 28th, +/- week to week. Thx for sharing this view.

 

[JustMe]

Remember the good old days when we were stuck at $185? Those were good times

 

[jim0266]

The Capn has said on his streams he doesn't follow Tesla news, but seems to view Tesla from a trader's lens. This still kind of freaks me out. After what we've all been through the last few years nothing seems improbable anymore.