Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[bkp_duke]

Yes - the whole ER was a disaster (for short term). They gave no reason at all why investors should stick with Tesla and not sell now and buy a couple of quarters later at lower price. The talk was all negative ... not one positive (Mexico, New platform, New smaller car ....) was mentioned. Why should anyone stick with TSLA for next 6 months if all the positives are to come next year and later ..... except for FOMO ?

We're we listening to the same call? CT - on track for this year. 4680 Ramp, on schedule, with Austin increasing production by 50% in just the last quarter.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

STO 10 x c170 ($1.05) for next week on today’s strength.

This comes on top of the 10 x p150, 5 x p146 and 6 x p144 I sold yesterday.

I don’t think this bounce has legs.

 

[Cherry Wine]

STO 10 x c170 ($1.05) for next week on today’s strength.

This comes on top of the 10 x p150, 5 x p146 and 6 x p144 I sold yesterday.

I don’t think this bounce has legs.

I like it. This morning I kept my 5/5 10x -c150 position, but I did close a 10x -c170 position at $0.61. I'm going to give it until tomorrow to re-open...maybe add to it at 20x or even 30x.

 

[CHGolferJim]

STO 10 x c170 ($1.05) for next week on today’s strength.

This comes on top of the 10 x p150, 5 x p146 and 6 x p144 I sold yesterday.

I don’t think this bounce has legs.

Considering rolling down -c180 to -c170 for 5/5, but a little wary of Fed possibly holding steady and market reaction. Guess I could always roll up 5/5.

 

[EVNow]

We're we listening to the same call? CT - on track for this year. 4680 Ramp, on schedule, with Austin increasing production by 50% in just the last quarter.

We sure did - except I don't see how small volume CT later this year - and "on schedule" 4680 ramp that has been painfully slow ... will actually help SP in the medium term. In any case any small positive was hugely overshadowed by coasts of "we are the only company that can sell at 0% margin". Anyway, I think this is best left to the finance thread where I can address it fully.

I think many of the Tesla fans here (esp. in the main thread) don't try to understand the "other side". So they can't figure out why SP is moving the way it does .... I know, because I used to be that way. Painful 7 figure losses in '19 has taught me to try to understand the market dynamics without always resorting to conspiracy theories ("all selling is done by shorts", "MMs always manipulate the price" etc).

 

[UltradoomY]

Considering rolling down -c180 to -c170 for 5/5, but a little wary of Fed possibly holding steady and market reaction. Guess I could always roll up 5/5.

Not sure what to make of it but there was leak of info from JPOW to some Russian trolls - from January that there were 2 more hikes left. One already happened - so one more....
I am not sure what to make of this since it was from January and things have changed but they could also want to stick to their plan...

Please check it out and let me know if I should delete my reply.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Not sure what to make of it but there was leak of info from JPOW to some Russian trolls - from January that there were 2 more hikes left. One already happened - so one more....
I am not sure what to make of this since it was from January and things have changed but they could also want to stick to their plan...

Please check it out and let me know if I should delete my reply.

Highly doubtful of the alleged leak, but wouldn’t surprise me if the decision was already taken to bump another 0.25% prior to GDP data (1.1%).

 

[DaBooster]

Whaaaaaaaat? Are you crazy or is that a typo? This week? That’s too much, even for you.

its at 10.00 now

 

[Max Plaid]

Whaaaaaaaat? Are you crazy or is that a typo? This week? That’s too much, even for you.

Wait and see… you all thought I was nuts with the -c160’s this week, but guess what, +$54k realised on those when I closed today

I’m covering the downside, essentially. We have had a few good earnings the last few days, what happens if Amazon reports bad, or, Dog forbid, Netflix, Snapchat? Will go south fast

In the meantime, the indices are rampant, so TSLA reluctantly follows, will it continue…? I have no idea, but I’m not feeling great about the stock right now, as mentioned earlier, ER was a train-wreck

 

[Max Plaid]

its at 10.00 now

It’s where it is next week that matters, not now

 

[EVNow]

you all thought I was nuts with the -c160’s this week, but guess what, +$54k realised on those when I closed today

Don't forget to send a thank you note to Jeffries

ps : Sold -175/+180 spread for next week.

 

[dl003]

Yes - the whole ER was a disaster (for short term). They gave no reason at all why investors should stick with Tesla and not sell now and buy a couple of quarters later at lower price. The talk was all negative ... not one positive (Mexico, New platform, New smaller car ....) was mentioned. Why should anyone stick with TSLA for next 6 months if all the positives are to come next year and later ..... except for FOMO ?

Interesting.

No offense but I think staying within the TSLA bull bubble is distorting your perception a little bit.

My inner and outer circles of trading friends are the cream of the crop when it comes to professional standing, much like a lot of people on this board. The difference is they are not hardcore TSLA bulls. In fact, they are not bullish on most stocks and most are in agreement that we are in a recession. Many were waiting to buy TSLA at 154-156 based on TA. They didnt listen to the CC. They didnt read the deck. They didnt even know what Elon did or didnt say or what TSLA has in store for the next 6 months. A lot of them bought the stock since the ER. Their sentiment is as follows:

1/ They like TSLA and they like Elon.
2/ We are in a recession. Companies are expected to miss estimates. Thats not a reflection of their long term profitability.
3/ When all bad news have been priced in, they buy the stocks.

When non-believers act that way, you’d expect hardcore bulls to show a lot more optimism but interestingly, some are discouraged and talking about “the next 6 months.”

Maybe you are disappointed only because you are expecting too much out of these events. Most people dont care. As to Wall Street, it only cares about PE and the likes. It doesnt care about 4680 or Cybertruck. 2023 EPS est has already come down by 10% and so has the SP.

 

[EVNow]

No offense but I think staying within the TSLA bull bubble is distorting your perception a little bit.

No - I deliberately go outside TMC and read, listen and try to avoid reading the main hopium thread.

When non-believers act that way, you’d expect hardcore bulls to show a lot more optimism but interestingly, some are discouraged and talking about “the next 6 months.”

That is what I'm hearing on YT, CNBC etc. Rob of TeslaDaily talked about a Morgan Stanley (?) event where they said everyone thought Tesla will underperform the market in the next 6 months. Can't be a coincidence.

Obviously there are people who think ~ 154 is the bottom and buy (as we have been seeing). I don't know how much they will buy ... because I see a lot of TAs saying 146 is the "target" .... too many people seem to believe in gap fill theory.

ps : SP seems to be "targeting" 160 for this week. I guess thats the new max pain.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Sold 5/12 175 CC for 1.55. Let’s go

 

[Jim Holder]

Interesting.

No offense but I think staying within the TSLA bull bubble is distorting your perception a little bit.

My inner and outer circles of trading friends are the cream of the crop when it comes to professional standing, much like a lot of people on this board. The difference is they are not hardcore TSLA bulls. In fact, they are not bullish on most stocks and most are in agreement that we are in a recession. Many were waiting to buy TSLA at 154-156 based on TA. They didnt listen to the CC. They didnt read the deck. They didnt even know what Elon did or didnt say or what TSLA has in store for the next 6 months. A lot of them bought the stock since the ER. Their sentiment is as follows:

1/ They like TSLA and they like Elon.
2/ We are in a recession. Companies are expected to miss estimates. Thats not a reflection of their long term profitability.
3/ When all bad news have been priced in, they buy the stocks.

When non-believers act that way, you’d expect hardcore bulls to show a lot more optimism but interestingly, some are discouraged and talking about “the next 6 months.”

Maybe you are disappointed only because you are expecting too much out of these events. Most people dont care. As to Wall Street, it only cares about PE and the likes. It doesnt care about 4680 or Cybertruck. 2023 EPS est has already come down by 10% and so has the SP.

Thank for you clear talk and reminder.

What’s the latest update on your EW model and forecast given the past couple days activity?

 

[dl003]

No - I deliberately go outside TMC and read, listen and try to avoid reading the main hopium thread.


That is what I'm hearing on YT, CNBC etc. Rob of TeslaDaily talked about a Morgan Stanley (?) event where they said everyone thought Tesla will underperform the market in the next 6 months. Can't be a coincidence.

Obviously there are people who think ~ 154 is the bottom and buy (as we have been seeing). I don't know how much they will buy ... because I see a lot of TAs saying 146 is the "target" .... too many people seem to believe in gap fill theory.

ps : SP seems to be "targeting" 160 for this week. I guess thats the new max pain.

Fade them.

When TSLA was 400 and everyone of them had PTs 300-500, did it help propel the stock further? Ive found most Youtube personalities, including Rob and SMR to be counterproductive. How many weekly episodes does one need to make to make the point that TSLA is a great stock? How many people have bought TSLA higher and hold it longer than they were confortable with just because Rob or Steven said so? SMR called chartists all kinds of nasty names from 300s all the way to 100s. Tesla Economist was another one.

 

[mongo]

Fade them.

When TSLA was 400 and everyone of them had PTs 300-500, did it help propel the stock further? Ive found most Youtube personalities, including Rob and SMR to be counterproductive. How many weekly episodes does one need to make to make the point that TSLA is a great stock? How many people have bought TSLA higher and hold it longer than they were confortable with just because Rob or Steven said so? SMR called chartists all kinds of nasty names from 300s all the way to 100s. Tesla Economist was another one.

I haven't found Rob to be as described. He gives the daily news, positive and negative, and isn't spouting "to the moon, buy moar!" (Hyperbole)
He let's my wife know all the stuff I already knew from being on here all day...

 

[dl003]

Thank for you clear talk and reminder.

What’s the latest update on your EW model and forecast given the past couple days activity?

I think 151 was the bottom.

 

[Jim Holder]

Excellent! What spot are you looking at to sell CCs again for a $152 retest (if expected), and do you see the retest going that low?

Thanks again.

 

[Vova]

I think 151 was the bottom.

0 is the bottom.