This rally ran $26 in a week, much more extreme than the one that it just broke out from. Imagine the energy and buying volume it would take to keep going up like this. It's unsustainable. The longer it tries to follow this path, the harder it's going to fall after.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Was tempted to roll this morning, but right now I’m glad I held my 8x -c182.50 for this week.
Still holding 8x -c185 for next week and 10x -c180 for 6/9.
Also have 2x -p190 and 2x -p185 this week.
Still holding 8x -c185 for next week and 10x -c180 for 6/9.
Also have 2x -p190 and 2x -p185 this week.
Still holding my -185C. Will see if a roll is necessary comes Friday.
You’re brave! Seeing $192.96 this morning was eye-watering for those holding -C185 for this Friday, though I see now how what goes up must come down.
Any sold puts?
Still holding -c180/+c190 , will roll those if we get back to 190 (better debit) or close if we go down further (preferred). Opened 5/26 +p167.5/-p177.5 for .65 ... One of these will finish OTM, will take close opportunity if presented.
Puts are not paying much as I was hoping for a down day like today to sell some. I have a bunch of 190s+ CCs that I'm holding for a little longer before taking action. I did sell some more 205s this morning before the push down that looking like a smart move.
Same here.
Currently holding -185C for this Friday and -170P for June 2nd.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Tesla is too volatile to sell long term ...
Also, cumulatively 4 weekly options yield more than monthly options for the same risk.
ps : 190 call expiring 5/26 on Friday closed at 1.09 . That was $10 OTM from SP. $40 OTM call i.e. 230, expiring 6/16 was only 0.38 !
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If volatility is high, I think it is even more profitable to sell long term options instead of short term (Vega).
I think you hit the point, adrenalineWhat EVNow wrote. Plus more hits available on the adrenaline bong with short-term.
I mentioned previously that I have been experimenting with strike prices at which I would be OK with my shares being called away. Of course, this has to be balanced with duration to be worth it.
Whereas I once sold CCs 3 to 10 DTE for 0.50 cents or so hoping for free money with low risk only to find myself scrambling and rolling and sweating furiously all too often, today I sold Jan 19 2024 350 and then 360 strikes for 4 dollars on the push up. They closed at 3.45 and 3.10 respectively today. I could have closed both positions today for more than the 0.50 that I once struggled for. TSLA may rip up again in the next few days and put me under water, but I know how hard that is from being on the buying side in the past.
Best part is how easy it is to be patient here. Even if TSLA were to rip madly to 280 over the next month, I would have options. First, worst case scenario, let it ride and let them get called away at 354 or 364. But I had already chosen these strikes as OK. Prices I can live with. Much more likely the stock would stall and grind and consolidate and give me ample opportunities to roll to much higher strike prices, if my desire was to keep shares at all costs. And I would even have the chance of still making 100% on the trade. January is closer than you think, and more than doubling the stock price in 8 months time is no small feat given TSLA's MC.
Anyway, the lack of overall urgency helps me pick my spots better as well, as I did today. In the end, whatever strategy you employ, nothing beats buying or selling at the right time.
Whereas I once sold CCs 3 to 10 DTE for 0.50 cents or so hoping for free money with low risk only to find myself scrambling and rolling and sweating furiously all too often, today I sold Jan 19 2024 350 and then 360 strikes for 4 dollars on the push up. They closed at 3.45 and 3.10 respectively today. I could have closed both positions today for more than the 0.50 that I once struggled for. TSLA may rip up again in the next few days and put me under water, but I know how hard that is from being on the buying side in the past.
Best part is how easy it is to be patient here. Even if TSLA were to rip madly to 280 over the next month, I would have options. First, worst case scenario, let it ride and let them get called away at 354 or 364. But I had already chosen these strikes as OK. Prices I can live with. Much more likely the stock would stall and grind and consolidate and give me ample opportunities to roll to much higher strike prices, if my desire was to keep shares at all costs. And I would even have the chance of still making 100% on the trade. January is closer than you think, and more than doubling the stock price in 8 months time is no small feat given TSLA's MC.
Anyway, the lack of overall urgency helps me pick my spots better as well, as I did today. In the end, whatever strategy you employ, nothing beats buying or selling at the right time.
Dopamine rather...I think you hit the point, adrenaline
I do both. Sold naked long dated calls heavily on the way down.
Judging by the premium on these calls, you can probably tell they were sold when TSLA was in the 300s. Same positions, a couple days later.
But I'm not doing this anymore, because in my opinion, TSLA has begun a new bull market, vs last September when it was on the way down. In order to capture large gains without risking massive losses if the stock ran against my chart, I chose to sell super FOTM long dated calls for high premiums and large cushions.
Right now I'm only selling weeklies. It's nice to have a setup to sell monthlies into for a quick close, but days like the last 3 days can't be predicted in advance. By the time they happens, I'm usually already locked in. The post split and post Q3 ER plays which net me 75% of last year return were planned in advance. Not so easy now.
Judging by the premium on these calls, you can probably tell they were sold when TSLA was in the 300s. Same positions, a couple days later.
But I'm not doing this anymore, because in my opinion, TSLA has begun a new bull market, vs last September when it was on the way down. In order to capture large gains without risking massive losses if the stock ran against my chart, I chose to sell super FOTM long dated calls for high premiums and large cushions.
Right now I'm only selling weeklies. It's nice to have a setup to sell monthlies into for a quick close, but days like the last 3 days can't be predicted in advance. By the time they happens, I'm usually already locked in. The post split and post Q3 ER plays which net me 75% of last year return were planned in advance. Not so easy now.
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Another perspective:
Cary suggests that TSLA topped out today at the $192 area that $166.68 is a likely 1-3 week target from here.
$194.45 might be tried again but small chance of that happening.
$184.86 is bottom support for tomorrow, but it might be violated, especially if it opens below.
If it does, then $180.94 likely next. A close under $180.94 brings $166.86 shortly after.
In general we can expect $166.68 by end of the next week or so.
QQQ and SPY being on top of their ranges is adding to the pressure.
Cary suggests considering a $165-168 OTM +P for 14-21 days DTE (or sell -C190's?), or a +P145 put 60 days out.
Closing out those near-term -C this morning with strikes over $200 might not have been necessary for me after all.
After a great March and April recouping losses from last year, this month was completely off rhythm for me.
Cary suggests that TSLA topped out today at the $192 area that $166.68 is a likely 1-3 week target from here.
$194.45 might be tried again but small chance of that happening.
$184.86 is bottom support for tomorrow, but it might be violated, especially if it opens below.
If it does, then $180.94 likely next. A close under $180.94 brings $166.86 shortly after.
In general we can expect $166.68 by end of the next week or so.
QQQ and SPY being on top of their ranges is adding to the pressure.
Cary suggests considering a $165-168 OTM +P for 14-21 days DTE (or sell -C190's?), or a +P145 put 60 days out.
Closing out those near-term -C this morning with strikes over $200 might not have been necessary for me after all.
After a great March and April recouping losses from last year, this month was completely off rhythm for me.
What a stressful morning! Thankfully, I believed @dl003 ’s advice from a few days ago that if we broke the rising channel, then the SP would return into, and probably hard to the bottom of, the channel. Furthermore, since I had -c195s and -c200s sold yesterday (too early), that our prognosticator of prognosticators said could likely be rolled to safety, I decided to just enjoy the morning sunshine, cool temperatures and a beautiful walk in the park. On my return, checked the SP dumping to near $185 and did a little happy dance. Even considered selling +p155/-p175 BPS before the close, but decided to wait until tomorrow’s MMD to further follow @dl003 ’s predictions. Thank you, not for this particular prediction, but rather for helping me practice patience and timing, which will pay off for years to come.
So what can I add to the collective learning? TSLA just printed an inverse hammer or shooting star doji.
Guide To Understanding Shooting Star Candlestick Patterns
It will be interesting to see if what Cary expects happens. It certainly flies in the face of our slight euphoria during the first day and a half of this week. Things change fast. Personally, I feel there’s a decent chance of SP $184-$185 at Fri close, enough to not do anything yet with 28May$185 CC.Another perspective:
Cary suggests that TSLA topped out today at the $192 area that $166.68 is a likely 1-3 week target from here.
$194.45 might be tried again but small chance of that happening.
$184.86 is bottom support for tomorrow, but it might be violated, especially if it opens below.
If it does, then $180.94 likely next. A close under $180.94 brings $166.86 shortly after.
In general we can expect $166.68 by end of the next week or so.
QQQ and SPY being on top of their ranges is adding to the pressure.
Cary suggests considering a $165-168 OTM +P for 14-21 days DTE (or sell -C190's?), or a +P145 put 60 days out.
Closing out those near-term -C this morning with strikes over $200 might not have been necessary for me after all.
After a great March and April recouping losses from last year, this month was completely off rhythm for me.
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