Morning! Can you share your thoughts with us on anticipated TSLA action today/tomorrow?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Morning! Can you share your thoughts with us on anticipated TSLA action today/tomorrow?
jeewee3000
Active Member
He told us yesterday.
In other words, he expects a green day today. Retest of 278-280 minimum. Maybe gap fill to 290.
(note: my interpretation of another posters viewpoint, NOT advice)
I bought FOTM call spreads in case there's some news coming in the AH and jacking us up, like back in June.
We are holding above the support so while I'm looking for cheap bets to the upside, I'm also watching this 267-280 zone for signs of deteriorating technicals for the next few days. As of yesterday's close, flow has been annoying bullish. Maybe it's the MMs jacking up option prices for PPI today and that's going to fall as soon as market opens. That's also the reason why I bought those calls. In hindsight, maybe I should have waited one more day for IV to settle down, which is today.
Doesn't matter how much I sharpen my TA tools and make sure they're unique enough to see things the majority can't see, it's hard to shake the feeling of doubt over whether I'm part of the often wrong majority I'm trying to stay out of.
Thank you. I'm thinking 9/29 -C290 might be safe since even if we test $280-285 this week or next it'll likely head back to test support below.
Does that make sense?
This is not going to last long. In my opinion, delivery is still forecast to go down QoQ. Therefore, we will not break 296 before P&D and if we will not 296 before P&D then the default trajectory once the gap has been filled is down.
PPI and CPI came out. Core numbers show shelter (Fed's main headache) is indeed slowing down. The overall numbers are much higher than expected, but that's because energy prices went up during an especially hot month. Many people took to short the market based on this readily available information and when the numbers came out that surprised no one, the market naturally floats up as those short bets are closed. But still in the end, nothing really worth celebrating. Short lived.
As for TSLA, I'm going purely off of option flow and it is screaming FOMO. However, my bets are more of a white swan hedging variety.
PPI and CPI came out. Core numbers show shelter (Fed's main headache) is indeed slowing down. The overall numbers are much higher than expected, but that's because energy prices went up during an especially hot month. Many people took to short the market based on this readily available information and when the numbers came out that surprised no one, the market naturally floats up as those short bets are closed. But still in the end, nothing really worth celebrating. Short lived.
As for TSLA, I'm going purely off of option flow and it is screaming FOMO. However, my bets are more of a white swan hedging variety.
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We are approaching the downward resistance that TSLA has been under for almost two years. Need to crack around 280 to finally get out of it. I'm guessing this won't be easy. See The Daily Trader for more details.
Edit: By the end of the month the number will be closer to 275....
Edit: By the end of the month the number will be closer to 275....
From QTA:
Ranges for today ($267.87 low - $276 high)
MP $246.67
The longer it holds over $270 and 2 sigma the more pressure it puts on shorts/call sellers because they're the ones taking on more risk right now. IF price gets and holds above $275 there isn't much in the way until $280. If TSLA breaks over $280 it will likely trigger a squeeze up to even $300 in the following weeks.
Looking past tomorrow's expiration shows interest all the way up to $300 and there's gap on the chart up to $300. $270 is support as the AbsGEX strike (magnet) for expirations from next week until Oct monthly OPEX. This is good for bulls. $300 is a likely target for them using $270 as support and $260 as the major support level.
Ranges for today ($267.87 low - $276 high)
MP $246.67
The longer it holds over $270 and 2 sigma the more pressure it puts on shorts/call sellers because they're the ones taking on more risk right now. IF price gets and holds above $275 there isn't much in the way until $280. If TSLA breaks over $280 it will likely trigger a squeeze up to even $300 in the following weeks.
Looking past tomorrow's expiration shows interest all the way up to $300 and there's gap on the chart up to $300. $270 is support as the AbsGEX strike (magnet) for expirations from next week until Oct monthly OPEX. This is good for bulls. $300 is a likely target for them using $270 as support and $260 as the major support level.
Didn’t like the bullish feeling this AM, so closed out 9/15 ICs: +p240/-p250/-c280/+c290 for a small $0.10 profit (only opened yesterday). In hindsight, I knew a test of the -c280s was likely and should have opened at strikes $5-$10 higher. If I had, then I would have let them ride until tomorrow. Also, decided against re-opening puts (had sold -p245, -p250 on Friday, closed near Tuesday peak for 90% profit), and instead did a Buy-Write 9/15 -c272.50s @$4.xx. This AM, rolled to 9/22 -c275 for $3cr. Planning to just keep those near ATM and roll for credit, perhaps eventually turning into core shares if the SP drops in October. Also, had some 9/15 -c260s that I rolled to 9/22 -c262.50s for $0.50cr. Again, rolling if I can still get some credit for a strike improvement, otherwise those will either turn into cash or get pushed into 300+ strikes in 2024.
Now we wait to see if the MMs take the SP back behind the woodshed and wack it back down to $250 or the bulls continue buying through tomorrow. Witch (
) way will they Triple trick us?
Edit: just read @dl003 ’s post above and bought 10x 9/15 +p265s for $0.50 just to dare them into dropping it this afternoon.
All of this could a mute point, as my availability to trade/watch options might dramatically change in October.
Now we wait to see if the MMs take the SP back behind the woodshed and wack it back down to $250 or the bulls continue buying through tomorrow. Witch (
) way will they Triple trick us?Edit: just read @dl003 ’s post above and bought 10x 9/15 +p265s for $0.50 just to dare them into dropping it this afternoon.
All of this could a mute point, as my availability to trade/watch options might dramatically change in October.
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Nice to see QTA daily "Range high" hold true so far for the second day I'm tracking it:
It's built every morning based on option flow and deep studies of probabilities specific to Beta stocks, incl TSLA.
So far it augments well what we share here.
Stocks don't like being above 2sigma and tend to revert to the mean below them. That's not to say TSLA can't find mojo and run some more, just probability favors it falling back below 2AVWAP (rising gray line) and 2sigma ($271.96).
It's built every morning based on option flow and deep studies of probabilities specific to Beta stocks, incl TSLA.
So far it augments well what we share here.
Stocks don't like being above 2sigma and tend to revert to the mean below them. That's not to say TSLA can't find mojo and run some more, just probability favors it falling back below 2AVWAP (rising gray line) and 2sigma ($271.96).
Yeah, I bailed out earlier today as well at a slight loss on my bullish short-term positions.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Half-followed... sold -C290 9/22 for $2.48
A likely White Swan will be the CyberTruck delivery event. I expect approx 2 week notice. High probability the delivery event will be between 9/28 to 10/2. The delivery announcement could be the spark that pushes the stock to 295 before falling off after P&D shows Q3 < Q2.
Be ready. Delivery announcement could be any day now.
Be ready. Delivery announcement could be any day now.
Also, don’t forget that large funds will likely be EOQ window dressing. Anybody else planning to trade that? I’m looking to buy 9/30 calls somewhere during a large MMD.
If a bunch of people expect something, that thing isnt gonna be a White Swan. With a flood of sightings, pictures, hypes, discussions etc... do you really think a delivery date is going to surprise anyone, much less cause the stock to run up uncontrollably?
TSLA holding over daily high range $276 for decent amount of time...a close aorund here would be the highest sequence in the recent run.
Let's see if it holds or if the MM/Pirates bring out the Sledge-O-Matic.
[Edit:] Looks like we have a rocket returning to base for now. Let's see if the bulls can muster a close over $276:
No sell walls yet SP selling down. Anyone know why? Is it DP not appearing on L2/bookmap?
Let's see if it holds or if the MM/Pirates bring out the Sledge-O-Matic.
[Edit:] Looks like we have a rocket returning to base for now. Let's see if the bulls can muster a close over $276:
No sell walls yet SP selling down. Anyone know why? Is it DP not appearing on L2/bookmap?
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OK, as mentioned earlier, was interested in some Jan 24 -300 straddles... sold 15x -c300 earlier on what I thought was the pop at $23.1, waited for the MMD with a $47.1 sell on the -p300's, but never happened
So just got them sold now for $43.1, not a huge difference, I'll live with it
Just went with a few to try out the method, will continue with weeklies in parallel
(and there is goes dropping more now, typical!)
20x -c260, 20x -c270, 20x -p270 to look after tomorrow
So just got them sold now for $43.1, not a huge difference, I'll live with it
Just went with a few to try out the method, will continue with weeklies in parallel
(and there is goes dropping more now, typical!)
20x -c260, 20x -c270, 20x -p270 to look after tomorrow
Maybe it was the 2 billion (this is an exaggeration!) contracts at $275 clearing, dark pools, maybe up and above the strike level?TSLA holding over daily high range $276 for decent amount of time...a close aorund here would be the highest sequence in the recent run.
Let's see if it holds or if the MM/Pirates bring out the Sledge-O-Matic.
View attachment 973831
View attachment 973832
[Edit:] Looks like we have a rocket returning to base for now. Let's see if the bulls can muster a close over $276:
View attachment 973836
No sell walls yet SP selling down. Anyone know why? Is it DP not appearing on L2/bookmap?
View attachment 973837
BTC 9/22 $262.5 CSP for $2.19 after ~ 24 hours open for 46% gain. Ill take that everyday of the week.
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