Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[ReddyLeaf]

Again, I don’t know anything, but here are the largest options trades for last Friday as reported by my brokerage. Notice the green highlighted ones are large, definitely bullish bearish (?) trades, right near the close. I’m not sure about the ITM puts, could be closed trades, or someone trying to really bet on a big rebound , I don’t know. But the green highlights are definitely bullish bearish (?). Here’s to a quick rebound (my open positions really need a bounce).

Edit: Crud, now I’m confusing myself. Are these put spreads bullish or bearish? Now, I think they’re bearish, because I would normally sell -p270 and buy +p265, hoping for the SP to NOT drop.

 

[Max Plaid]

Cary's update for Monday trading:

Up pivot level: $254.47
Down pivot level: $241.64

If TSLA opens or breaks below $241.64 it can test the $233.95 channel bottom same day and then rotate up from there. Decent bottom-picking area for longs. A close Friday below $231.61 area indicates a new sell signal and you may want to exit longs, expecting a fall toward the $217 and then possibly the $190's area in 1-2 weeks.

For upside, weekly buying pressures can be contained at $261.18 and rotate back down toward $230's.

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Thanks, really appreciate you summarising these...

OI for Friday expiary looks interesting, put dominated 270 and below

Europe delivery numbers took a hit the last two weeks with inventory Model 3 drying up, of course we don't have visibility on all markets, so we don't really know, but I see very few new cars available (I found 2 M3 in Germany) and suspect the P&D will come in lower than we'd like it to be, but of course that will be next week's story, not this

 

[SebastienBonny]

Thx for this insight @Jim Holder , I'm going to sell 2x ATM calls for this Friday.. it'll cover a margin loan I don't want to continue paying interest; weeklies are too volatile, up or down, not enough profit after fees and interest. If trend continues down, I have 2x 11/17 -C235 that might cleanup well.

Actually I'm selling monthlies now (ie rolling a contract every month, because still ITM) with a target of 6/contract. Has been working since june when the steep rise caught me and weekly rolling wasn't worth it anymore. Also anticipating SP coming back down which happened (that gave me the possibility to roll 225 to 230 and add my target premium on top).

I'm feeling way better and calmer selling monthlies. You actually don't really care as much about SP action, because after a steep rise, SP will get back down (for now that is).

 

[phantasms]

Actually I'm selling monthlies now (ie rolling a contract every month, because still ITM) with a target of 6/contract. Has been working since june when the steep rise caught me and weekly rolling wasn't worth it anymore. Also anticipating SP coming back down which happened (that gave me the possibility to roll 225 to 230 and add my target premium on top).

I'm feeling way better and calmer selling monthlies. You actually don't really care as much about SP action, because after a steep rise, SP will get back down (for now that is).

Same. Although did start doing small weekly trades but the set it and forget it monthly might not be as profitable but sure is less stressful.

 

[Max Plaid]

Shorty bears having a riot in pre-market...

 

[intelligator]

Actually I'm selling monthlies now (ie rolling a contract every month, because still ITM) with a target of 6/contract... You actually don't really care as much about SP action, because after a steep rise, SP will get back down (for now that is).

I'll need to sell a couple hundred shares now, so 2 contracts will be for this week. For the others, I'd sell October ATM now, roll when to November? An example would help, pls. I'm not comfortable with taking a read 30DTE. Thx.

While I'm in here may as well post OI shift... 240 may be the line in the sand.

 

[SebastienBonny]

I'll need to sell a couple hundred shares now, so 2 contracts will be for this week. For the others, I'd sell October ATM now, roll when to November? An example would help, pls. I'm not comfortable with taking a read 30DTE. Thx.

Well, it's not easy to say when to roll.

When I got deep ITM with 225CC I already said goodbye to those shares (in my mind).
But then the stock went down and gave me more possibilities.
So when deep ITM I'd wait as long as possible (as long as there's time value in it) to see whether stock goes down.
If it isn't, you let the contract expire, if it is, you can roll one month if the premium is starting to be worth it.

When not ITM, it's obvious to just sit and wait and let time value burn/close for x% gain/...

I started this when someone here said he had been rolling a contract monthly for over a year.
Of course weeklies are more profitable, but the extra premium is not worth the time needed to monitor.

If you want concrete numbers:

5/30: Sold 220 CC 06/09 for 2.01
Cash position: +201

6/07: Rolled 220 CC 06/09 to 225 CC 06/16 for +0.24
Cash position: +225

6/12: Rolled 225 CC 06/16 to 225 CC 06/30 for +4.49
Cash position: +674

6/21: Rolled 225 CC 06/30 to 225 CC 07/28 for +5.94
Cash position: +1 268

07/28: Rolled 225 CC 07/28 to 225 CC 09/15 for +4.94
Cash position: +1 762

08/21: Rolled 225 CC 09/15 to 230 CC 10/20 for +5.89
Cash position: +2 351

So actually it was not my intention at first to roll this one monthly, but the stock price action drove me into it. I tend to seek strike improvement and premium together when possible.
If I just let this go for now (but I'm planning to roll it this week if stock price action gives me a good opportunity to roll to November for extra premium and strike improvement to 235), then these are the possible numbers:

If the contract gets executed, I earned 2 351 premium and 1 000 stock appreciation (cost base was 220).
This would be 3 351 for 5 months or 670.20/month.

If it's OTM on 10/20, then it's 2 351 for 5 months or 470.20/month.

But I repeat, I just plan to keep on rolling this.
Should this go OTM this week, I will be looking at November 235 and around 600 premium.

 

[elasalle]

Closed my CC's for next week for +60%, added a few couch Jun 24 300 Calls ... back to wait and see ....

Sept worst performing mth is almost over ...
heard/read-- "sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur" .... and my kids have Yom Kippur holidays today

 

[Knightshade]

Any general non-advice for someone holding -p$255 for Friday? Hypothetically they're cash secured so could just turn into a wheel thing, or we could always get a CT announcement or something that bounces them OTM before end of week-- but wondering if anyone has any more interesting thoughts on doing something with em given current state of the stock and the fact PD over the weekend is likely a miss (and then ER a few weeks later likely won't be thrilling either?)

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Near the bottom I took my gains on the Friday +P's AND -CC so -P240 dec is naked again, which I want to cover again on ay bigger move downward later this week. For now, buffer has increased 1 dollar a piece so assignment @ 225 would still be profitable. That could happen on the still (expected)further move down ahead of dec 15, but I am feeling safe about the depth of that as long as SPY is holding up. Bank puts are running in the money quite a bit to cover the rest. Powder for LEAPS and share buy-in still dry on this side....

 

[Nocturnal]

Posted in the other thread, AI predicts $232.15 by Oct 1st, $278 by Nov 1st, $390 by 2024, and $570 by 2025. We shall see.
AI predicts Tesla stock price for October 1, 2023

Do you think it has been talking to Optimus and getting insider info?

 

[BornToFly]

Any general non-advice for someone holding -p$255 for Friday? Hypothetically they're cash secured so could just turn into a wheel thing, or we could always get a CT announcement or something that bounces them OTM before end of week-- but wondering if anyone has any more interesting thoughts on doing something with em given current state of the stock and the fact PD over the weekend is likely a miss (and then ER a few weeks later likely won't be thrilling either?)

I have -p265 for Friday. I'm waiting until Thursday, and then rolling to just before the ER in October. Good premiums and hope for pre-ER rise to get them OTM. If the Friday before the ER it is still ITM, then roll another week for the high ER premium.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Near the bottom I took my gains on the Friday +P's AND -CC so -P240 dec is naked again, which I want to cover again on ay bigger move downward later this week. For now, buffer has increased 1 dollar a piece so assignment @ 225 would still be profitable. That could happen on the still (expected)further move down ahead of dec 15, but I am feeling safe about the depth of that as long as SPY is holding up. Bank puts are running in the money quite a bit to cover the rest. Powder for LEAPS and share buy-in still dry on this side....

And made countermoves now (-C255 and + P240 for Friday), which I like to close again on SP 235-ish for a pretty buffer-extension.

 

[john tanglewoo]

I know this thread and forum is for TSLA, but I was looking to sell some puts if we break certain support levels this week.....and one of my money managers who is really in-tune with macro sent me this (to be taken with grain of salt if you don't pay attention to broader markets):

The broader stock market is in a downtrend and seasonality is bearish for two full more weeks . No reason to be in a rush to buy anything until second half of next week. And then buy stuff but also buy tail puts just in case this is the 15% of the time the 4Q is a massive selloff in stocks

Note I have 2 other buddies who work at different funds and they are both Risk OFF for right now. So take that as you will. I'll be waiting for a support break before selling more puts, but in the meantime may consider some different spreads. Will update if/when I take on any positions.

 

[UncaNed]

Closed my CC's for next week for +60%, added a few couch Jun 24 300 Calls ... back to wait and see ....

Sept worst performing mth is almost over ...
heard/read-- "sell Rosh Hashanah and buy Yom Kippur" .... and my kids have Yom Kippur holidays today

Yikes! I hadn't noticed... How much of September's worst performance typically happens in the last 5 days of September?

Asking for a friend...

 

[tivoboy]

Obviously, the bears have fired their warning shot with a clean break of AVWAP. However, I concur with @tivoboy (although I'm not sure if he still holds his view through the weekend), that the 252 253 level should be retested at least once. Here we have a clear 3 wave structure that has the potential to morph in a full 5 wave down. 244-245 is exactly where wave 3/C should terminate so it's about time for a shallow recovery to 252 before the reaching for the final target of 237. This impulsive leg down doesn't carry any unique identifier to help with predicting price action down here.

Sorry, sort of missed this.

At this point I don’t know if we’ll get back to 253, but as I’ve posted 234 remains my target.. many things are now flashing this level. I’d be comfortable selling Oct 20 -c$255 against my entire current position, but there isn’t enough premium in it now. I’m focusing on 10/20 -c245 looking for closer to $18, we’re at 14.5 now.. a little run up to 250 could get me there.. it’s a call sell for me.

I’m also putting together a put spread, for Oct/Nov maybe, BUYING either the 220 +P (target <5$) or 210 (target <$2.75) strike. And for Nov, I’d probably buy the 215 +P (sub $6), and SELL somewhere in the $189-195 level for November expiration.

I’m looking to wait out this week before SELLING PUTS sub $200, for Nov monthly expiration. but it may happen this week.

We’re holding at some support here, pretty STRONG support $244-$245, but my next level is as I’ve said the $234, should come this week.. it’s NOT strong support, so beyond that we’re back down to prior bounce around $211 (adjusted) and then STRONG support at $205, that’s probably what is keeping sub $200 PUT prices low, but once we’re running below $220, those will come up quickly and that’s when I’d be a PUT seller for those November sun $200 strikes.

 

[elasalle]

Yikes! I hadn't noticed... How much of September's worst performance typically happens in the last 5 days of September?

Asking for a friend...

Don't know, but per the saying seems things seem to get better after Yom Kippur (which is today with ~ 5 days left ....)

 

[dl003]

Obviously, the bears have fired their warning shot with a clean break of AVWAP. However, I concur with @tivoboy (although I'm not sure if he still holds his view through the weekend), that the 252 253 level should be retested at least once. Here we have a clear 3 wave structure that has the potential to morph in a full 5 wave down. 244-245 is exactly where wave 3/C should terminate so it's about time for a shallow recovery to 252 before the reaching for the final target of 237. This impulsive leg down doesn't carry any unique identifier to help with predicting price action down here.

Right now the bias is firmly to the downside. I don't know if we'll bounce to 252 or if we'll go down to 237 after, but what I know is if that happens, then short every rally off of that until a lower low has been carved out. 5 wavers are not one-offs. There'll be a follow through at some point. You can see that we don't have a lot of room between the SP and the lower trendline. It means if we have a 5 waver for the 1st leg down, it's almost guaranteed we'll drop out of the 2023 uptrend and start (or resume) a multi month correction. Now, I try not to let the TSLA bull in me cloud my judgment. I just think that, logically, no bear is going to commit to that scenario right before P&D. In case they do, it'll speak volume to the intention of the big boys and we should start preparing for 185. Keep in mind that earlier in the week I didn't think they'd commit this far this early but apparently I was wrong. It will take a lot of surprises to fill the gap and a hell lot more to break 298. I'm talking maybe 20k P&D beat followed by a 1% gross margin surprise and re-affirmation of the yearly delivery target, maybe even a little price hike.
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The 2 main scenarios still remain:
Bounces from 245 (lowered to 238) and 291 gap fill still on the table (low chance but non zero)
Bounces to ~250 before going lower and 291 is off the table and 185 is confirmed. However, this small bounce needs to stretch out for a few days. If not I'll have to redo the chart.
You can see that once anchored VWAP (blue dot) was broken, the stock went all the way down to lower band #1. Right now it's trying to form an inverted hammer on the daily. If an inverted hammer can remain into the close then we can start counting on a bounce to 250-252.

Yes, the chart is getting increasingly bearish, but if there's one lesson in TSLA, it's that it aint over until the fat lady sings. RIght now it's still just a 3 wave down. I need to see 5 waves. Keep in mind one effective way to make new highs (291 in this case) is by frontloading the drop and trapping in enough bears to produce a face-ripping dead cat.

 

[john tanglewoo]

The 2 main scenarios still remain:
Bounces from 245 (lowered to 238) and 291 gap fill still on the table (low chance but non zero)
Bounces to ~250 before going lower and 291 is off the table and 185 is confirmed. However, this small bounce needs to stretch out for a few days. If not I'll have to redo the chart.
You can see that once anchored VWAP (blue dot) was broken, the stock went all the way down to lower band #1. Right now it's trying to form an inverted hammer on the daily. If an inverted hammer can remain into the close then we can start counting on a bounce to 250-252.

Yes, the chart is getting increasingly bearish, but if there's one lesson in TSLA, it's that it aint over until the fat lady sings. RIght now it's still just a 3 wave down. I need to see 5 waves. Keep in mind one effective way to make new highs (291 in this case) is by frontloading the drop and trapping in enough bears to produce a face-ripping dead cat.
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Where'd you learn to do your charting?! Liking the thought process.

 

[john tanglewoo]

Sorry, sort of missed this.

At this point I don’t know if we’ll get back to 253, but as I’ve posted 234 remains my target.. many things are now flashing this level. I’d be comfortable selling Oct 20 -c$255 against my entire current position, but there isn’t enough premium in it now. I’m focusing on 10/20 -c245 looking for closer to $18, we’re at 14.5 now.. a little run up to 250 could get me there.. it’s a call sell for me.

I’m also putting together a put spread, for Oct/Nov maybe, BUYING either the 220 +P (target <5$) or 210 (target <$2.75) strike. And for Nov, I’d probably buy the 215 +P (sub $6), and SELL somewhere in the $189-195 level for November expiration.

I’m looking to wait out this week before SELLING PUTS sub $200, for Nov monthly expiration. but it may happen this week.

We’re holding at some support here, pretty STRONG support $244-$245, but my next level is as I’ve said the $234, should come this week.. it’s NOT strong support, so beyond that we’re back down to prior bounce around $211 (adjusted) and then STRONG support at $205, that’s probably what is keeping sub $200 PUT prices low, but once we’re running below $220, those will come up quickly and that’s when I’d be a PUT seller for those November sun $200 strikes.

How does Macro factor into your consideration? What if you sell ATM 10/20 calls, and the Cybertruck gets released this week? What if delivery numbers come in better than expected? Then you'd have earnings coming up. Would you continue to hold those -C245s despite positive catalysts?

Of course I am just playing devil's advocate here, as we are playing the same game and I hope for our continued success.