Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
I've still got a bunch of -260c for tomorrow... currently better off letting em exercise than rolling (tax-free account so not a factor there) and then selling ATM puts but we'll see how things look tomorrow afternoon I suppose.


Closed all these for about 70% profit at open... probably too early but as red as these were last couple days happy enough with the win
 
I'm not surprised by the price cuts in the US on 2023 Model 3/Y when China and Europe have the new models. If I'm a US buyer for either of those cars, I'm waiting to buy until we have the same updates.
It’s FAR better for this company at this stage to lower price to keep demand and supply in sync THAN to throttle production.. Q3, we had production and delivery essentially EQUAL.. going INTO Q3 from Q2 numbers, we had ~ 20K surplus of production vs. delivery. Where did those cars go? If they rolled into Q3, and were sold (at a discount we know), then the ~ 10-12% reduction in production due to factory shut downs was sufficient production reduction to equal demand - reduction I would say. I think we’re going into an even slower period for consumer interest and demand, we know that to some extent already.

So, better to sell the cars at a discount than to even open the window a TAD that might indicate that there is a demand / supply imbalance either at the company level or sector level, or just overall macro level.

If Tesla for example dropped a shift (shift drop is better than slowing the line) in any one of the three primary factories, or offered more model variants (that is essentially a line slow DOWNER with the hope that it adds to margin), then analysts would jump all over this.

With the price drops now, on say a M3 RWD, including federal and most state tax credits, cost is about ~25-27K.. that is essentially the price on a good USED car these days, and probably one of the lowest priced EV on the road.
 
It’s FAR better for this company at this stage to lower price to keep demand and supply in sync THAN to throttle production.. Q3, we had production and delivery essentially EQUAL.. going INTO Q3 from Q2 numbers, we had ~ 20K surplus of production vs. delivery. Where did those cars go? If they rolled into Q3, and were sold (at a discount we know), then the ~ 10-12% reduction in production due to factory shut downs was sufficient production reduction to equal demand - reduction I would say. I think we’re going into an even slower period for consumer interest and demand, we know that to some extent already.

So, better to sell the cars at a discount than to even open the window a TAD that might indicate that there is a demand / supply imbalance either at the company level or sector level, or just overall macro level.

If Tesla for example dropped a shift (shift drop is better than slowing the line) in any one of the three primary factories, or offered more model variants (that is essentially a line slow DOWNER with the hope that it adds to margin), then analysts would jump all over this.

With the price drops now, on say a M3 RWD, including federal and most state tax credits, cost is about ~25-27K.. that is essentially the price on a good USED car these days, and probably one of the lowest priced EV on the road.

There is also the added benefit that it erodes demand for the "competition" (I put that in quotes for obvious reasons to everyone here).
 
I'm not surprised by the price cuts in the US on 2023 Model 3/Y when China and Europe have the new models. If I'm a US buyer for either of those cars, I'm waiting to buy until we have the same updates.
True. In the EU it's even more complicated: which model Y you get when you order one depends on the trim. If you get one from Berlin (you're only certain if you get silver/midnight cherry red) you get the "old" model Y, if you get one from Shanghai, you should get ambient lighting Y.

My parents-in-law are thinking of getting a Y and I'm trying to explain this to them. They'll talk to a sales rep to find out how to be sure.
 
QTA Levels for today:

Range high: $259.02
Range low: $249.3

1696600536807.png
 
I am holding 20x -C280 10/20 @$4.45

Was thinking of adding more today as they are now above 5, but going to wait.
Closed these for measly profits of 30%, but profits are profits.

Not keen to hold these over the weekend, market seems to be doing cartwheels and consensus is all over the place. Will be watching this chat closely!
 
My -C260's 10/6 (tomorrow) are hanging in there, still watching to see if to close/roll/bounce/leave alone.

STO 10x -C275 10/13 @$2.05
STO 10x -C280 10/13 @$1.40
These are based on GEX walls for 10/13 being heavy on $270 (should be good resistance if even tested) and 275 and 280 smaller walls behind them. Will add if we get a Friday push.

View attachment 979859

BTC all short calls for nice gains, especially from deep red on -C270 10/20. Nice treat to end the week!
TSLA holding $251 area as of now so I wasn't going to skip the chance. Will re-open various short calls as a trend solidifies.
Of course it's possible we chop in the 251-258 range today due to options pressure and sell off Monday. Will react accordingly then.

1696602307072.png


1696602378708.png
 
BTC all short calls for nice gains, especially from deep red on -C270 10/20. Nice treat to end the week!
TSLA holding $251 area as of now so I wasn't going to skip the chance. Will re-open various short calls as a trend solidifies.
Of course it's possible we chop in the 251-258 range today due to options pressure and sell off Monday. Will react accordingly then.

View attachment 980126

View attachment 980127
Told you those -c260's would be fine 😋

Of course I have no idea where the SP will go on any given day, but the options open-interest was definitely pointing to a sub-260 close today and the jobs report gave the perfect boost to dump it back down

Had the jobs report been as cold as yesterday's custard then might have been a different story, but I bet they still would have tried for it
 
Thanks to the dip, BTC 70x -c240 @11.9 for net +$2.2 -> these were trading at a $8 loss yesterday

Now wait for bounce for the 100x -p255 and resell the calls

Come to think of it, maybe I should sell puts for next week now

Edit: STO 70x -p250 @$6.1
Same here. BTC various BCS and CCs near AM bottom and sold 10/13 -p250s at $5.20. Waited for a slight bounce then sold some 10/13 -p250s at $8.55 to form the straddle. Unfortunately, I had BPSs at +p245s/-p255s that were in bad shape, so I jumped ship on those and rolled to 10/13 +p245s/-p255s for credit, then later paired with +c260s/-c270s to form the IC. Not ideal, but timed the roll and BCS sell well enough to remain in the green currently.

Yesterday, the remaining rolls hit (into -c350s Jan2026 LEAPs), generating a nice wad of cash, which allowed me to sell the above mentioned 10/13 -p250 CSPs. I will continue selling short-term ICs and straddles on a small fraction of my accounts (<10%) for the remainder of the year, then push everything out into 2026 as my time will become too constrained for trading. If/when DL003’s $200 price target is reached by 2024, I might close all the -CCs and just hold shares until 2026. Hard to know at this point.

Edit: I can’t believe it. The bastards tricked me again. Now the SP has risen above the -p255 BPS and will likely expire worthless. Damn, gave back a bundle of profits on those by rolling.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • Funny
Reactions: Max Plaid
DL003 mentioned 200 should be reach by end of the year. One thing that doesn't pan out yet is no Analyst downgrade. Price cut and lower shipment should see a decrease in earning for 2023. Unless Tesla is pulling a rabbit with COG and realizing gain from FSD. Cybertrunk if launch would still not impact the revenue that much till 2024.
 
DL003 mentioned 200 should be reach by end of the year. One thing that doesn't pan out yet is no Analyst downgrade. Price cut and lower shipment should see a decrease in earning for 2023. Unless Tesla is pulling a rabbit with COG and realizing gain from FSD. Cybertrunk if launch would still not impact the revenue that much till 2024.
It’s hard for most analysts to upgrade the stock and price target one week and then DOWNGRADE earnings the next, so I expect that to come maybe next week or another week out. Since MM have probably sold calls, they’ll want to wait it out a bit.

I have 10 CC -c255 for 10/20, I’d like to buy them back at sub 50% or less, I’ll wait till next week or even earnings week - which is also OPEX for the month of October
 
DL003 mentioned 200 should be reach by end of the year. One thing that doesn't pan out yet is no Analyst downgrade. Price cut and lower shipment should see a decrease in earning for 2023. Unless Tesla is pulling a rabbit with COG and realizing gain from FSD. Cybertrunk if launch would still not impact the revenue that much till 2024.

My guess: Wall Street analysts are waiting for Q3 financials to be reported and confirm drop in margins then rush to downgrade left and right. Its a double whammy they like to stack together. No better timing for those vultures and stick it to us.

Like many here I closed all my CCs (-260, -265, & -270) with today's big drop in the trading and subsequently opened a bunch of -240 & -235 puts for next week.