Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[tivoboy]

How are you positioned in TSLA at this point? Did you ever pull the trigger on those short calls?

Still short 10/20 -c255 calls. Will look to buy them back if they get under ~ $6, (~70% gain) I think they‘ll go to 0, but I’m traveling next Weds AM, and on a beach next THURSDAY/FRIDAY and prefer to be checked out.

Still looking to sell Puts ~ 185/195/200 going into year end, but I’m patient and wait for the numbers to come to me. Premium isn’t there yet, but when we start printing sub $240/230, they will rise to levels I’m willing to sell at.

 

[thenewguy1979]

seem 252 was the bottom for today. Sold all my puts for a tidy profits. Dont want to be too greedy and hold til Weekend. Elon might make a cybertruck announcement and caused a big uptick on SP Monday. Have a good weekend everyone. Chow out for today.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I am impressed on how the technique of the daily trader Pierre Roberge doesn’t work at all any more. The stock becomes a technical buy after a big break out of the resistance and then when it’s time to be a technical buy the stock goes down and breaks down the support channel.

Stochastic comes over 60 and then there’s a reversal right after.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I am impressed on how the technique of the daily trader Pierre Roberge doesn’t work at all any more. The stock becomes a technical buy after a big break out of the resistance and then when it’s time to be a technical buy the stock goes down and breaks down the support channel.

Stochastic comes over 60 and then there’s a reversal right after.

It seems like all technical analysis trends work right until they don't. One has to be attentive, patient, adaptive, and a little bit lucky to do well in this game over the long term - but I do think it's possible, with the understanding that one can always be caught out by a black or white swan.

And on the subject of TA, I've never quite followed the logic of looking to past charts as a predictor of future price moves (ie., the stock price moved in "Pattern A" (for lack of a better term) in the past, and it's tracking "Pattern A" nicely now, therefore we can safely extrapolate that it will complete "Pattern A"!) - I think past charts can be helpful in us understanding how a stock price could move, but I don't think they necessarily dictate how a stock will move. A subtle but important difference imho.

There's enough data out there over years that one can probably always find an analogue in past charts to predict almost any scenario you could want.

 

[Jim Holder]

I am impressed on how the technique of the daily trader Pierre Roberge doesn’t work at all any more. The stock becomes a technical buy after a big break out of the resistance and then when it’s time to be a technical buy the stock goes down and breaks down the support channel.

Stochastic comes over 60 and then there’s a reversal right after.

Such is swing trading, need to be nimble and get out when momo fades.

 

[Max Plaid]

Irksome macro the last couple of days. I was on target for a monster week if we closed around 260, and only booked 50% of the profits I was expecting, still very good profits at that, but feel a bit cheated!

Obviously forced to buy back the 70x -p260's for $7.9 (=breakeven), but the -c260's I'll let expire rather than cough up the $175 broker fee (+$70). Curiously my broker allowed me to sell 70x 10/20 -c250 naked, I guess their cash/margin allocation algorithm is smart enough to see that today's are very likely going to expire - would need an EPIC reversal to bring this back into play!

So 70x -250 straddles now in play for next week @$18.3, I'm not in the camp of "the stock has to go down after ER", but I prefer to cover the downside and I'm very happy of it goes up too and I'm mostly positioned for upside in 2024

 

[Knightshade]

It seems like all technical analysis trends work right until they don't. One has to be attentive, patient, adaptive, and a little bit lucky to do well in this game over the long term - but I do think it's possible, with the understanding that one can always be caught out by a black or white swan.

And on the subject of TA, I've never quite followed the logic of looking to past charts as a predictor of future price moves (ie., the stock price moved in "Pattern A" (for lack of a better term) in the past, and it's tracking "Pattern A" nicely now, therefore we can safely extrapolate that it will complete "Pattern A"!) - I think past charts can be helpful in us understanding how a stock price could move, but I don't think they necessarily dictate how a stock will move. A subtle but important difference imho.

There's enough data out there over years that one can probably always find an analogue in past charts to predict almost any scenario you could want.

If any TA method worked reliably everyone would use it and it wouldn't work reliably anymore.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Holding 230 CC for next week.
Still some time value in it.
Could roll one month now for more than my monthly goal, but as we are approaching earnings I tend to wait until thursday to see how the stock reacts, unless we’re getting in a downtrend now and going red for the next three days. In that case we could end up flat or even up after earnings. Just my own thoughts ofc…

 

[phantasms]

Heck of an attempt at the close there.

 

[SebastienBonny]

Heck of an attempt at the close there.

Yeah, and after market right back to 251…

 

[thenewguy1979]

Here my advice is you plan to daytrade. Dont. Stick with monthly or weekly as minimum.

TA will only get you so far. Be alert and check on Macro

Dont be greedy take profit as much as you can. A small profit is better then any loss.

I was hitting myself on the head for selling too soon sometimes but once you close a contract dont look back. It done.

This is a good place with lots of good people who willing to help and share. Read and check often.

 

[EVNow]

I am impressed on how the technique of the daily trader Pierre Roberge doesn’t work at all any more. The stock becomes a technical buy after a big break out of the resistance and then when it’s time to be a technical buy the stock goes down and breaks down the support channel.

Stochastic comes over 60 and then there’s a reversal right after.

As I was saying a couple weeks back - TA ignores broader market which mostly dictates what happens with all major stocks.

 

[thenewguy1979]

what anyone plan for this week? Seem SP does not fade for shipment miss or EPS decline. Seem the drop we seen may have already price in. Now a good forcast and a cybertruck annoucement may sway the SP. Short been piling in and it seem to easy just to buy the downside. Was thinking about doing both short and call way out of the money but dont know how that pan out. Anyone have a thought?

 

[MikeC]

what anyone plan for this week? Seem SP does not fade for shipment miss or EPS decline. Seem the drop we seen may have already price in. Now a good forcast and a cybertruck annoucement may sway the SP. Short been piling in and it seem to easy just to buy the downside. Was thinking about doing both short and call way out of the money but dont know how that pan out. Anyone have a thought?

Was happily able to close my short calls in the 250s and 260s on Friday. Opened up 20x each -260c/-267.50c/-275c. Also have a -p250/-c250 straddle.

I’m still defensive because I told myself I wouldn’t ignore @tivoboy next time he went bearish. Also still prepared to see 230s a la @dl003.

My guess is down early in the week - if so, there might be room for an upside surprise on COGS or megapack margins on Wednesday and so I’ll close the calls and sell puts before that.

If flat to up next week, I would be more fearful of a post-ER drop. Still don’t see us busting out of this 200-300 range until we see margins getting back above 20%, which doesn’t seem soon with interest rates where they are.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

what anyone plan for this week? Seem SP does not fade for shipment miss or EPS decline. Seem the drop we seen may have already price in. Now a good forcast and a cybertruck annoucement may sway the SP. Short been piling in and it seem to easy just to buy the downside. Was thinking about doing both short and call way out of the money but dont know how that pan out. Anyone have a thought?

Aside from some Oct 20th short strangles, also have some Nov 17th +200p/+300c to take advantage of any sudden spikes/drops after ER. Gambling money.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Seeing the team playing it safe here. All goods. I personally looking out for the pre earning bump and keep the plays between 230 - 280. Then all bet are off at earning. Tesla has been running on Macro last 2 weeks. That may change into earning. Jim’s chart is a good basis so far for the daily along with feedbacks from the team here.

 

[intelligator]

Opened +p205/-p225 a bit early when at 253, happy nonetheless. Will open the call side of the IC when we are back at 265+, aiming for -c285/+c305 or -c290/+c310. Will also manage the put side then.

 

[Jim Holder]

From Yoona:

There are 8 ema/sma/avwap lines that *could* support $TSLA #TSLA if it goes south; not much volume profile there so elevated risk of freefall.

9:30-10am most of the time decides the High/Low of the week.

Very interesting to see all the interest up at 270 and even 280:

 

[EVNow]

Just listened to Wicked Stocks analysis. He didn't even mention ER ....

I'm sitting out this week. Except for one set of DITM calls I've from June (the other set got resolved when SP fell to 212 last time).

 

[thenewguy1979]

Stock may bounce going to earning and take off, up or down, depending on annoucement. Planning to trade the bounce and see macro goes before making any big move by close of Wednesday. Highly volatile week

Heard Iran may step in within 24hrs