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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Wtf are all these big words.
Overall, I think Tues/Weds of this week will turn out to be one of the mother of all short squeezes for indexes across the board, most equities across the board, and even bonds. I expect a great deal of retracement, selected and now totally overall.
The overall price action today, tells me that the large players - who were positioned for flat to down, indexes and most equites got clear by Thursday Close.
Remember, this weeks triple witching was the largest SPX/SPY/QQQ/NDX options expiration in the past more than a decade and it was NOT positioned for this much move in the USD$, and FOMO.
JPow messed up his planned messaging I think, and they are going to desperately try and walk a lot of that back in the coming days/weeks. While treasury loves the lower US$, the fed will not (lower US$, higher prices, higher stock prices and anything priced in dollars)..inflationary.
I sold a sugar ton of covered calls Wednesday and Thursday, while trying to travel (man, FSD really just needs to get better FAST!) for mostly Jan/ February expiry. I’m still willing to sell TSLA basically here, $260/265 for February expiration. If we get a bit more pop, the 260 will be over $20 and I’m fine with that.
The overall price action today, tells me that the large players - who were positioned for flat to down, indexes and most equites got clear by Thursday Close.
Remember, this weeks triple witching was the largest SPX/SPY/QQQ/NDX options expiration in the past more than a decade and it was NOT positioned for this much move in the USD$, and FOMO.
JPow messed up his planned messaging I think, and they are going to desperately try and walk a lot of that back in the coming days/weeks. While treasury loves the lower US$, the fed will not (lower US$, higher prices, higher stock prices and anything priced in dollars)..inflationary.
I sold a sugar ton of covered calls Wednesday and Thursday, while trying to travel (man, FSD really just needs to get better FAST!) for mostly Jan/ February expiry. I’m still willing to sell TSLA basically here, $260/265 for February expiration. If we get a bit more pop, the 260 will be over $20 and I’m fine with that.
Wow! Do you think those of us with -C260, -C265 for 12/22 should roll today or it won’t get taken that fast?
It's Friday; did you mean NEXT Tues/Weds will be a short squeeze?
My read, those would be fine, but well as always - that’s what makes a market. US equity markets will be closed 12/25 of course and global reduced activity 12/26.
Term structure of MP out 2.5 months, all healthily below $240/250, many much lower to $210…there are some very odd high strikes, could be a very very large player simply collecting easy premium.
I disagree. I think JPow knew exactly what he was saying, and the animal spirits it would unleash. Other Board members will jawbone a bit to help walk back what JPow said to try and keep a lid on things, but the Fed is telling us they're okay with loosening financial conditions to an extent, and we should probably listen - I think "Don't fight the fed" is a good mantra both to the upside as well as the downside.
I'll toss out another data point supporting this thesis in the form of Costco's update on inflation from today:
It’s sort of too hard to tell, but I would till say yes. If there is anything port managers will want to do is BOOK gains solidly, or hedge against an odd final short week of the year TLS, or bear raid.
I like that! Jives with $257-263 being “max” top for this sequence before turning back down as bulls will be fighting profit-takers. A close above $265 negates this and it’ll run more.
Once again, Adam Jonas coming out for exit liquidity.
Once again, what bad macros? What bad fundamentals? What low margins?
If they want the stock up, the stock's gonna go up.
I bet not a lot of people paid this any attention.
Never!
Gotta be nimble and move with the market.
I like what you once said that you’re more anxious in a bull run then downtrend, totally relate to that.
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Other than consolidation around here into next week, how do you think this plays out for now?
This is still very rudimentary but my expectation is if TSLA pulls back right here then there will be more upside to come.
If it goes straight to 263-265 without pulling back, I'll be a lot more defensive.
Closed out my collection of 12/22 and 12/29 puts with strikes in the 220 range. These were all ahead 85-90% leaving little remaining value to earn. By closing them today I'm free of any possibility of reversal over the weekend, and am indeed eager to see it happen
The pattern I've been seeing in my winning trades the last few months is that instead of opening 1 week / current week options, and then closing them the same week, I am instead opening 2 and 3 week options that are then closed in the same week. Once we're down to 1 week to expiration it seems like the time value has melted away. This time the 12/29's were also far enough OTM that their time value had melted as well.
The pattern I've been seeing in my winning trades the last few months is that instead of opening 1 week / current week options, and then closing them the same week, I am instead opening 2 and 3 week options that are then closed in the same week. Once we're down to 1 week to expiration it seems like the time value has melted away. This time the 12/29's were also far enough OTM that their time value had melted as well.
By defensive you mean sell/reduce longs/+C/+P and lean short?
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Man, this sure looks like the volcanic situation in Grindavik (Iceland).
You smelled sulphur. Ground is moving, they talked about a magmadike under the city.
You get evacuated. There is a land-rise and -fall, damage. But the magma does not show. After a day, new magma-intrusion, according to the volcanic expert. Will it blow next week? They build a dike around the power plant. Will it hold? Will the town exist in a month? Or will we have an eruption that will last until the beginning of 2024?
253+ was suppressed with success today, not enough "magma-pressure" yet, We all know that a little earthquake can open up the fissure that starts a large and steady inflow, maybe leading to a short-squeeze.
All ingredients are present, will it cook? I will bet yes.
STO 12/22 -P245.
STO 12/22 -C265 BUT bought the shares to that as well, assignment is okay
BTO 2/216 C295
You smelled sulphur. Ground is moving, they talked about a magmadike under the city.
You get evacuated. There is a land-rise and -fall, damage. But the magma does not show. After a day, new magma-intrusion, according to the volcanic expert. Will it blow next week? They build a dike around the power plant. Will it hold? Will the town exist in a month? Or will we have an eruption that will last until the beginning of 2024?
253+ was suppressed with success today, not enough "magma-pressure" yet, We all know that a little earthquake can open up the fissure that starts a large and steady inflow, maybe leading to a short-squeeze.
All ingredients are present, will it cook? I will bet yes.
STO 12/22 -P245.
STO 12/22 -C265 BUT bought the shares to that as well, assignment is okay
BTO 2/216 C295
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