Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Yoona]

Does this mean that you think 280 is possible this week? Or are you hoping to do the same trade multiple times for even more premium?

I have 265CCs for Friday that I'm watching closely and trying to decide how I want to manage...

at the time i sold, 2 STDDEV was 280

i wanted to make sure i'm safe in case the stock rose further and i can't escape the daytrade

this means if my bet was wrong, there is high probability that it will still expire by Fri

 

[Yoona]

TSLA is blocked above by 50% fib but supported by upper BB; likely to fall short-term

 

[vwman111]

at the time i sold, 2 STDDEV was 280

i wanted to make sure i'm safe in case the stock rose further and i can't escape the daytrade

this means if my bet was wrong, there is high probability that it will still expire by Fri

Welcome Back Yoona. I've been on this thread since the start, lurking in the background and doing my weekly premium selling.

Do you close your position once it is less than 2 STEDEV? My assumptions based on some of your posts yesterday is that you would have stayed in those -c280s since the %OTM was very high - 95%.

280 was the strike i chose last week as well and my default is to stay in since the %OTM is high and i deem that still to be a safe strike.

I wouldn't have thought of closing it so soon? Are you looking to renter another position today or tomorrow? with an expiry for this week or next?

 

[dl003]

Sold a bunch of longs and short puts @258. How low can this retrace get do you think to get back in?

247 would be fine.

 

[Yoona]

Welcome Back Yoona. I've been on this thread since the start, lurking in the background and doing my weekly premium selling.

Do you close your position once it is less than 2 STEDEV? My assumptions based on some of your posts yesterday is that you would have stayed in those -c280s since the %OTM was very high - 95%.

280 was the strike i chose last week as well and my default is to stay in since the %OTM is high and i deem that still to be a safe strike.

I wouldn't have thought of closing it so soon? Are you looking to renter another position today or tomorrow? with an expiry for this week or next?

it was just a daytrade, play again tom

 

[wooter]

Hey @Yoona, I’m a big fan and welcome back to TMC!

A question about tooling: What‘s the source of those dark blue Net Gamma Exposure graphs? Which tool or website do you use for those?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Wow, that’s a good premium. Thanks, I may roll 4 x 22Dec$260 to that, netting $13 in 2 months, very good.

Booked it for a $13.64 credit and $5 strike improvement. Had planned to let $260CC assign on Friday, then rebuy in the probable $240s, but this accomplishes the same gain with certainty (260-18.64=241.36).

 

[Yoona]

Hey @Yoona, I’m a big fan and welcome back to TMC!

A question about tooling: What‘s the source of those dark blue Net Gamma Exposure graphs? Which tool or website do you use for those?

quant

 

[Yoona]

MMD arrived 10:45ish

 

[elasalle]

closed CC's in personal from last week, waiting to milk them cows again

 

[Jim Holder]

QTA levels for today

12/22

12/29

Bookmap

 

[Jim Holder]

STC various short puts at $258 for gains and STO -C285 12/29 @$1.15
BTC this and various short calls now at the MMD.

Still holding these below since they're still a bit red and watching how things play out from here if to BTC, roll, or let run:
-C260 12/22 @1.80
-C265 12/22 @1.00

 

[BornToFly]

If we stay under the rising resistance we almost touched earlier 265 will be safe for Friday. This is from the Daily Trader's chart.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Tony Seba powerpoints aside, that doesn't change the physical and economic reasons hitting 2.4M in 2024 seems to be fueled by hopium instead of where will the cars come from and who will buy them at current prices.




Sure. But TAM at a given price is also a thing. Elon himself has called out the issue is not a lack of people who WANT to buy one- but a lack of people who CAN.

(and that's ignoring where like 500-600k more production without any new factories, and seemingly no new lines being under construction right now)




Sure- but that seems like a goalpost move from discussion of vehicle deliveries?

And while its a great business growing quickly that one is much FURTHER to the left on the S-curve than auto... Last I knew the chinese megapack plant isn't scheduled to even START production until 2H2 2024? In which case it won't be material to 2024 financials, so you're left with just the one CA plant. It's not nothing but it's not 500k cars of revenue either.




$0.00 improvement in revenue or earnings there for 2024.



$0.00 impact to revenue or earnings in 2024. (arguably negative given the capex cost of development/line building/ground breaking in Mexico)




This. Is. Not. A Thing.

Elon said they'd license superchargers too, and it took 7 years for anyone to actually take him up on it. And superchargers actually exist unlike >L2 FSD.

That said-- even if they DID magically sign a deal tomorrow, it'd require significant vehicle redesign from whatever OEM did it- so again no help for 2024.




Also not a thing in 2024.

Tesla has barely scaled any DOJO for themselves, and need tons more.




Nobody suggested it was? Just that 2024 will be an unusually low year for it on the vehicle side. In fact I specifically called out I expect that growth to go back to eye watering once next-gen production starts scaling. But that's not 2024.





Huh? How do you retool a manufacturing line without any dip in production at all?

You are posting in the wrong thread. This kind of detailed analysis belongs in the main thread.

 

[dl003]

You are posting in the wrong thread. This kind of detailed analysis belongs in the main thread.

 

[Zaddy Daddy]

You expect a 40% increase in production in Q1 of 2024?

From where?

Because otherwise those #s don't work that way.

Plus you're gonna need to find buyers for those extra vehicles. Given there's already thousands in inventory discounts at the 480k run rate that seems unlikely unless we're slashing margins again?

40% YoY growth (down from 50 I guess), every single year, forever, isn't a thing. Even Elon has pointed this out.

When they have next-gen factories starting to ramp I expect you'll see a lot more than 50% YoY. But 2024? From where? Selling to whom?




Again -where?

Fremont is full AFAIK... (in fact they're going to need to lose a bit of production time in order to retool for Highland in 2024).

Austin AFAIK has no lines being added currently except the ones speculated to be for the next-gen car-- which won't be material in 2024 deliveries.

Berlin isn't even running the CURRENT lines at full capacity, just 2 shifts instead of 3, because they haven't the demand for justify the third shift.

Shanghai is cranking, but already retooled for highland and I'm unaware of any 40% capacity bump being built out there either- let alone ready for Q1. Are you?

Plus see again they'll need to find another 400k buyers for 400k more 3/Y even if they find somewhere to get the batteries and factory lines to build them.

Rates coming down might help a bit- but that's ALSO not a thing that'll be significantly happening by Q1.

IRA (and other countries) subsidies dropping out for at least some models will do the opposite of help there- and that IS happening in Q1.

Thank you for your level-headedness which this forum desperately needs more of.

Think about last year when everyone thought Elon's 1.8 million estimate was low-balling the true amount which was going to be above 2 million. Now according to @Troy 's analysis Tesla might be a bit under 1.8 or barely make it.

 

[Jim Holder]

Daily, so far:

 

[strago13]

Does anyone else keep detailed metrics?

As of now, I had a 16.2% ROI on the money invested selling puts and covered calls. Of that, 12% came from puts, and 4% from CC. How did everyone else do for the year? Not terrible, but not great.

 

[Nocturnal]

Dang, did someone's sell button get stuck?

 

[BornToFly]

Today I watched this incredible new video on how the Cybertruck steel is cut and bent, doors made, etc. When I watch this, I'm very glad to see the SP down and my CCs saved, because I definitely don't want my shares called away. ATH will come again when more people learn that Tesla has no competition. Trade carefully.