Looking at the huge (77k) triple witching 3/15 wall at $220, I'll be looking to open more CCs next week on more spikes to get behind that wall.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
Here's a map of the contract price looking ahead for that strike/DTE. Seems waiting to mid-next week will need about $209 SP to get same $1.50 as now at $203.
Thx! I went with 20X $210s for 3/8 in the meantime. I feel like we'll see a spike Monday or Tuesday and I'll sell more.
round 2 from yesterday (1dte!) is also
close=202.64; tuesday morning's tsla prediction is
Gave me a little pause there, but being patient and confident in the numbers saved a couple k by letting the 1Mar$205 expire (sto 14Feb).
Last edited:
Does that table take account of typically higher IV and decent chance of a $2-$5 SP rise (both raising premium) early in the week? (Closed today at $1.39 with hi/lo $1.79/$1.09)
On the bottom right of the screenshot you'll see a slider where you can change IV and the prices will change accordingly. The snapshot was at the IV of the late afternoon today.
Hope nobody has open bear spreads or naked calls on SMCI. They got added to S&P 500.
Took the week off, sold cc tuesday for 3/8 207.5 and 3/15 220. Today I rolled 3/8 207.5 to 3/22 210... staggering these , stepping up and out on the dips before they are ITM. I have some catch-up reading and my own due diligence before Monday. At the surface (what I've been reading from you all) seems we may be flat for a few weeks with +/- $7 to $10 SP moves?
Non-TSLA, I'd sold a smci BCS Monday 3/1 -c1020/+c1060 ... Looked safe then, can't set and forget! I closed out this morning for 75% , wasn't gonna be around rest of day. While the spread could have survived, look how quick SP climbed after hours. As Fidelity had said to m once before, your not in the clear until the entry is logged as expired in the journal. Not sure how long after market close assignment or calling away can happen... close early, keeping a little is better than losing a lot!
Non-TSLA, I'd sold a smci BCS Monday 3/1 -c1020/+c1060 ... Looked safe then, can't set and forget! I closed out this morning for 75% , wasn't gonna be around rest of day. While the spread could have survived, look how quick SP climbed after hours. As Fidelity had said to m once before, your not in the clear until the entry is logged as expired in the journal. Not sure how long after market close assignment or calling away can happen... close early, keeping a little is better than losing a lot!
Yeah, this2x Jan 2026 +p800's I bought are going to look a bit poorly on Monday! Still, just need 50c premium per week out of them to recuperate, but particularly bad timing otherwise...
I guess this is how TSLAQ were feeling through 2021
As we popped above $204 yesterday, totally against logic, I bought-back 50x -c210 for 2c - the pain in that trade is the $125 in fees, rather than the cost itself... still, +$4.08 net
Scraped some beer-money buying back the 20x -c200's net +15c
STO 25x TSLA 3/8 -p200 @$2.6, tried to add 15x more into close at $3.1, which got hit multiple times, but must have been a lot of orders at that price as the order did get executed at all -> note to self, non-psychological pricing would be better, even though it's not aesthetics, 3.07, for instance
Gave-up waiting for SMCI pull-back and took $7.6 for 2x 3/8 -p800, and finally tried to sell 7x NVDA -p800's into close, but kept rising away from my chasing order (I don't have an "at market" possibility for selling)
Was a very profitable week, even taking into account a bit realised loss rolling TSLA -c175's) and I come out of it with much less upside exposure on TSLA, although it's still too much, working on that...
Scraped some beer-money buying back the 20x -c200's net +15c
STO 25x TSLA 3/8 -p200 @$2.6, tried to add 15x more into close at $3.1, which got hit multiple times, but must have been a lot of orders at that price as the order did get executed at all -> note to self, non-psychological pricing would be better, even though it's not aesthetics, 3.07, for instance
Gave-up waiting for SMCI pull-back and took $7.6 for 2x 3/8 -p800, and finally tried to sell 7x NVDA -p800's into close, but kept rising away from my chasing order (I don't have an "at market" possibility for selling)
Was a very profitable week, even taking into account a bit realised loss rolling TSLA -c175's) and I come out of it with much less upside exposure on TSLA, although it's still too much, working on that...
SpeedyEddy
Active Member
Very luckily I saw Thursdays move as a threat to my march 15 SMCI -C890 and around that SP managed to close that for less than a dollar loss. SPY-inclusion obviously was known in hindsight. So Monday I will again ride the SMCI-waves. Friday I had to make and produce a last-minute photoshoot for a magazine, so only had time for two waves of in total 15 dollar a share on a C840. Did not have the guts to go long SMCI over the weekend, although Thursday’s pattern was followed through strongly on Friday and that looked very market-turning. Still got the April -C1480. Guess that will stay safe.
Palantir cut-back to 50% on Friday morning worked out well.
Stil being in the “$TSLA will not do any 195” camp I did not change any of my mostly long and fully loaded $TSLA position. Stil got the -C230 for march 15 though. Now I will read your Friday postings. Guess Monday I will be proven wrong on the 195 because of the ridiculous 5.95 billion attorney claim in the Delaware case.
Palantir cut-back to 50% on Friday morning worked out well.
Stil being in the “$TSLA will not do any 195” camp I did not change any of my mostly long and fully loaded $TSLA position. Stil got the -C230 for march 15 though. Now I will read your Friday postings. Guess Monday I will be proven wrong on the 195 because of the ridiculous 5.95 billion attorney claim in the Delaware case.
Last edited:
Troy on Q1-2024 sales:
1) Q1 2024 will be much less than Q1 2023, not just a little less. [Edit: see below, Troy clarified he meant Europe, not globally.)
2) Model 3 Highland is not doing well in Europe or China. That's one of the main problems in Q1. Model Y is also not doing great in Europe, China, or the US. (Not sure how this jives with Model Y on track to be best-selling car globally in Q1…)
3) Interest rates have not affected total car sales. For example, passenger car sales in the US in 2023 were at their highest level in the last 4 years.
4) I can't talk too much on Twitter but the situation for Q1 is changing rapidly and people are too optimistic.”
Seems to matches Tesla’s ambiguous comments for little to no growth for 2024
Although BYD is said to have a terrible Q1 too
If Troy's not totally off or gone full TSLQ, it may indeed be prudent to consider being less long and more short between now and deep into Q2 or even further. But keep in mind that Troy could also be wrong.
Matches this possibility of TSLA not being able to close over the $205-$209 area and instead may head back to channel bottom:
Last edited:
ChiefRollo
Member
Seems aligned with dl003’s read.
Per Troy on Tesla’s sales in Q1:
1) “Q1 2024 will be much less than Q1 2023, not just a little less.“
2) “Model 3 Highland is not doing well in Europe or China. That's one of the main problems in Q1. Model Y is also not doing great in Europe, China, or the US.”
3) “Interest rates have not affected total car sales. For example, passenger car sales in the US in 2023 were at their highest level in the last 4 years.”
If true and he’s not totally off or gone full TSLQ, it may be indeed prudent to consider being less long and more short between now and deep into Q2.
No. I said that about Europe, not about global sales. For Europe, even though Jan+Feb 2024 will be higher than Jan+Feb 2023, Q1 2024 will be much less than Q1 2023, not just a little less.
If you look at my tweet here, I was responding to a comment about Europe.
Here is a table that shows Tesla registrations in Europe in 2023. January plus February 2023 was 9,492 +23,342 =32,834.
This year, January + February 2024 will be around 45,000. So, it's clearly much higher than the same months last year. Therefore, some people are assuming that Q1 2024 sales in Europe should be higher or at least similar to Q1 2023. That's not the case at all. In fact, Q1 2024 will be much less than 94,242 units in Q1 2023.
The reason is that, January and February 2023 were low because Tesla was intentionally keeping them low by trying to deliver most cars in the last month of the quarter. You might say, why would they do that? It's because they wanted to minimize the number of cars in transit at the end of the quarter. I guess Tesla's idea was that as long as the car is delivered within Q1 2023, it doesn't matter if it's delivered in Jan, Feb or March 2023. Therefore lets just try to keep the end of quarter inventory low.
That idea worked OK when Europe deliveries were low. It used to cause these massive delivery waves where month 1 and 2 of the quarter was low and month 3 was super high. See
However, Tesla mostly eliminated the wave in recent quarters. For example, month 3 used to account for 88% of quarterly deliveries in Europe. Nowadays it accounts for 40-42% thanks to Giga Berlin and more balanced Model 3 exports from China each month. Europe doesn't get any Model Y anymore from China except for the right-hand-drive countries (UK and Ireland). All other Model Y comes from Giga Berlin.
In short, March 2024 deliveries in Europe will be much less than 61,408 in March 2023 and Q1 2024 will be much less than 94,242 in Q1 2023.
Last edited:
Thanks @Troy for visiting our thread and thanks for clarifying.
Do you see Q1-24 sales globally (not just Europe) a lot below 450k?
Last edited:
I'm glad you know what March deliveries will be. So Q1 is way ahead right now, but you think it is suddenly going to fall off a cliff. Did you tell Elon? Meanwhile Berlin just hit 6,000/week production. LOLNo. I said that about Europe, not about global sales. For Europe, even though Jan+Feb 2024 will be higher than Jan+Feb 2023, Q1 2024 will be much less than Q1 2023, not just a little less.
If you look at my tweet here, I was responding to a comment about Europe.
Here is a table that shows Tesla registrations in Europe in 2023. January plus February 2023 was 9,492 +23,342 =32,834.
This year, January + February 2024 will be around 45,000. So, it's clearly much higher than the same months last year. Therefore, some people are assuming that Q1 2024 sales in Europe should be higher or at least similar to Q1 2023. That's not the case at all. In fact, Q1 2024 will be much less than 94,242 units in Q1 2023.
The reason is that, January and February 2023 were low because Tesla was intentionally keeping them low by trying to deliver most cars in the last month of the quarter. You might say, why would they do that? It's because they wanted to minimize the number of cars in transit at the end of the quarter. I guess Tesla's idea was that as long as the car is delivered within Q1 2023, it doesn't matter if it's delivered in Jan, Feb or March 2023. Therefore lets just try to keep the end of quarter inventory low.
That idea worked OK when Europe deliveries were low. It used to cause these massive delivery waves where month 1 and 2 of the quarter was low and month 3 was super high. See
However, Tesla mostly eliminated the wave in recent quarters. For example, month 3 used to account for 88% of quarterly deliveries in Europe. Nowadays it accounts for 40-42% thanks to Giga Berlin and more balanced Model 3 exports from China each month. Europe doesn't get any Model Y anymore from China except for the right-hand-drive countries (UK and Ireland). All other Model Y comes from Giga Berlin.
In short, March 2024 deliveries in Europe will be much less than 61,408 in March 2023 and Q1 2024 will be much less than Q1 2023, not just a little less but for Europe, nor globally.
Similar threads
