Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[thenewguy1979]

I'm on the same boat - got some +170P exp 3/22, The greedy bug bite me again.

Someone posted yesterday about Euro # coming out Thursday.
Planning to wait and see. The force is strong with the MACRO pump going into AH and possibly tomorrow.

Perhaps someone can tell Elon so he can post something to help

 

[Yoona]

I'm on the same boat - got some +170P exp 3/22, The greedy bug bite me again.

Someone posted yesterday about Euro # coming out Thursday.
Planning to wait and see. The force is strong with the MACRO pump going into AH and possibly tomorrow.

Perhaps someone can tell Elon so he can post something to help

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770227409721192603

 

[Jim Holder]

View attachment 1030094
View attachment 1030095

https://twitter.com/x/status/1770227409721192603

So we’re in good company

 

[thenewguy1979]

So we’re in good company

We're not alone Jim. Plenty are betting on a dump after ER. Just not many are posting the plays.

Mine don't count - it's just 1 contract

Sometimes doing nothing is the best thing......as Yoona posted couple days ago.

 

[john tanglewoo]

I have a ton of +145p as a hedge in case TSLA drops.

Had a +180P / -150P that I got out of in the sweet spot when the stock was in the low 160s, and then opened the +145P (hoped to sell the 115P to fund some/all of it if the stock kept dropping).

As I said before, I use my entire stock portfolio as leverage to borrow money for real estate deals. So I cannot afford the value of that portfolio to deteriorate. Tesla is a huge part of that portfolio. My moves were out of necessity, not necessarily speculation.

 

[Jim Holder]

I’m glad I BTC my -C175’s 3/22 for gains yesterday, though knowing TSLA it may still close <$175 by Friday, but not looking to tempt fate.

 

[Jim Holder]

I have a ton of +145p as a hedge in case TSLA drops.

What expiration?

 

[intelligator]

In play are 4/26 +p140/-p130 that I opened last week. While there may be upside to the down when opening these, as a hedge is probably the right way to leverage a long put rather than speculate a drop to gain a few bucks, offset with a sold put on the other side. I've open a few of these in the past few months, one was a bull call spread and another put spread like this... each have been a loss. They are small, so not too bothered. Nonetheless, it is money that could have been put to better use. I'll hold on to see how strong we move up tomorrow... we'll see.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I’m glad I BTC my -C175’s 3/22 for gains yesterday, though knowing TSLA it may still close <$175 by Friday, but not looking to tempt fate.

I should have closed them with a +50% profit yesterday too

However I love to see my 6 underwater 175 CCs against my 100 DITM LEAPs

 

[BornToFly]

Also in the news is Biden Administration doubling down on EVs and stringent emission regulation to reduce ICE vehicles in 6 years.

 

[MrMoo]

I'm holding on to my 100x July +p150's... sure the markets rallied after FOMC today, but based on nothing, and Tesla story remains unchanged. The stock has picked-up thanks to a few price increases, but these seem to be more of a demand lever to me rather than a throttle, and indicative of poor sales in Q1

Will this be the case, don't know, no idea whatsoever, even if P&D is terrible, is it "priced-in"? Again, zero clue... but I'd sure kick myself if I sold them off, then watched the SP dump, so I prefer to wait and see, then sell shitputs against them to recuperate

What I might do is go for a -p170 YOLO on them for 3/28, given that I have 100x -c170's that I intend to roll if they're ITM, then might be worth doing a big-ass straddle if the SP looks like it will rise pre-P&D

So not advice, just saying what I'm doing with mine, plus they have +3 months more time to run than yours, which makes them more interesting to keep for the moment

China's numbers were disappointing this week, I also think the price increases are short term demand levers. Troy predicts weak deliveries for Q1, noting that inventory for Model Y is growing in the U.S.

I haven't engaged in short selling or bought puts but I'm still severely underweight TSLA shares.

The Federal Reserve's indication of three rate cuts this year could benefit Tesla. There's potential interest from big money at the current lower prices, as the stock market tends to look forward. Yet, if these large firms have analysts who have already crunched the quarterly numbers, why wouldn't they wait to invest post-delivery or earnings announcements. Or maybe they all think that so they are making moves now. Who knows!

I plan to maintain my current underweight share position and wait to see the performance of P & D in two weeks before making any new moves.

 

[elasalle]

Also in the news is Biden Administration doubling down on EVs and stringent emission regulation to reduce ICE vehicles in 6 years.

But looks like it benefits hybrids more than pure EVs
Next year 25K M2 will need to compete with even cheaper hybrids….

 

[Knightshade]

Also in the news is Biden Administration doubling down on EVs and stringent emission regulation to reduce ICE vehicles in 6 years.

Seems like it's being reported differently depending on the source.... but this was a significant watering down of the originally planned "doubling down" on EVs, due to pressure from auto unions to back off some and slow the EV transition.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/20/climate/epa-biden-electric-cars/index.html

in a concession to automakers and labor unions, the rules will be phased in more slowly than originally proposed and will give automakers more choices for how to comply.

Instead of pushing automakers to sell more EVs to meet stringent pollution targets, the administration is allowing plug-in hybrids — vehicles that combine gas engines and EV-like batteries — to play a much bigger role in the electric transition.

 

[Jim Holder]

For anyone trapped in short calls or otherwise caught off guard position-wise, before getting too scared/excited about a new bull run about to launch, TSLA needs to close over the following levels to confirm a bottom was in @$160:

• $183-184 (March high/0.5 Fib)
• $187.00 (@dl003's hard resistance)
• $200.00 (@tivoboy's very hard resistance)
• $205.61 (February high)
(• And DannyTrades says TSLA must stay over $172 for 10 days to even consider going long.)

The real question is what level to sell into for the rotation down.
Anybody?

 

[Jim Holder]

Seems like it's being reported differently depending on the source.... but this was a significant watering down of the originally planned "doubling down" on EVs, due to pressure from auto unions to back off some and slow the EV transition.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/20/climate/epa-biden-electric-cars/index.html

Plus that's only IF Biden's re-elected. He's also beholden to Unions which are beholden to Big Auto, so not unreasonable to expect watering down of any pressure that can harm legacy ICE too much.

 

[Jim Holder]

One possibility, but beware of trapdoors galore, as April is filled with puts and lots of -GEX:

4/05-4/26:

 

[Knightshade]

Plus that's only IF Biden's re-elected. He's also beholden to Unions which are beholden to Big Auto, so not unreasonable to expect watering down of any pressure that can harm legacy ICE too much.

OTOH if he is re-elected he doesn't need the unions anymore, he can't run again

Don't wanna get too into politics though (apart from mentioning if the other guy wins it's even worse for near-term EV-favoring rules)

 

[2Pearls]

So we’re in good company

If we feel confident of a dump, Why not just double down as the stock goes up so you dollar cost average? As TSLA was going up later in the day, I kept buying the same put for 4/5 at a lower price. My overall average price is now not so under water, and if it does tank, due to P/D being lousy, you make additional money.

 

[Jim Holder]

If we feel confident of a dump, why not just double down as the stock goes up so you dollar cost average?

Yes, but I’m not super confident of a dump. The market can do crazy things including “see past” the bad Q1 (stranger things have happened). Though I am neither super confident we won’t dump. So I’m trying to set up for both sides conservatively (like selling a bunch of -C260 1/17/25 @12.25 which gives plenty time to maneuver around it if things go either way) but wary of throwing more money counting on a dump.

Also “Don’t trade against the trend” they say, and nearly every time I try to I got a whop in the face (and wallet).

 

[Patrick66]

I'm going to take the contrarian position. I think we put in the low. 12.3 is starting to go wide release, and Elon said minor fixes are coming this weekend. Reviews continue to be excellent with many people posting zero intervention drives to multiple destinations. I think smart money is going to look past Q1 and start to look at FSD. Rumors on X say that FSD engineers are targeting robo taxi level by July.

Beware of the rose-colored glasses though. Personally, I think Tesla is going to struggle with a 50 P/E (max $205 based on earnings expectations), and there is an easy case for the P/E dropping to 30 ($120). Something positive beyond top-line revenue, bottom line profit, or an Elon "prepare to have your mind blown!" is needed at this point to get people off the sidelines. Right now, I don't see what that is... but I am also not going to bet against it.