Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[MikeC]

The worst thing that the board can do right now is to buy back. "Balls to the wall" and "buyback" can't coexist. TSLA needs all the capital it has for the next phase, be it to survive an economic downturn or to launch RT.

Your bear thesis hinges on Elon being an a-hole who prioritizes his personal gain over the mission, who will sabotage the stock if he doesn't get what he wants. I'm not saying that's not true, but if it is true, makes no sense to be invested. Not now, not ever.

I’m thinking a buy back could happen if we crash down near $100 but you’re right that with upcoming capital expenditures and now lower free cash flow, it’s not something Elon would be likely to do.

Re: Elon being an a-hole - not that he would purposely sabotage the company, but he is a busy guy and he might be able to find more time to actively support the stock price if he was actually being compensated.

We know he doesn’t really care about the day to day SP but it sure seemed like he was more on the ball with Tesla when he had to hit those comp plan milestones.

 

[jim0266]

Someone bought 30,000 +C105 12/18/2026
(OI is 11, vol is 30,000)

View attachment 1039335

Another 30K 18JUN26 100 strike calls today.

 

[tivoboy]

The worst thing that the board can do right now is to buy back. "Balls to the wall" and "buyback" can't coexist. TSLA needs all the capital it has for the next phase, be it to survive an economic downturn or to launch RT.

Your bear thesis hinges on Elon being an a-hole who prioritizes his personal gain over the mission, who will sabotage the stock if he doesn't get what he wants. I'm not saying that's not true, but if it is true, makes no sense to be invested. Not now, not ever.

Yeah, there is no buyback coming as appealing as it might be (cheap stock price, boost stock price).. If they DO a buyback, wow, I don’t think the market would think that was the best use of capital for a supposedly high growth company getting ready to ramp on the next growth phase.

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[CorneliusXX]

I’m thinking a buy back could happen if we crash down near $100 but you’re right that with upcoming capital expenditures and now lower free cash flow, it’s not something Elon would be likely to do.

Re: Elon being an a-hole - not that he would purposely sabotage the company, but he is a busy guy and he might be able to find more time to actively support the stock price if he was actually being compensated.

We know he doesn’t really care about the day to day SP but it sure seemed like he was more on the ball with Tesla when he had to hit those comp plan milestones.

I'm more confident than ever that a buyback won't happen. They need to spend every dollar they can spare on GPUs until FSD/optimus product is solved.

 

[thenewguy1979]

TSM and Netflix ER tomorrow.

The start of Tech ER for Q1.....going be exciting.

AAPL and NVDA. Both shall be impacted by the Earning tomorrow to be release before Market open.

 

[EVNow]

Lol why? There's statistical data that shows meaningful progress happened in the past 2 months. No one here is saying FSD suddenly becomes perfect L3 in 2 months.

We have absolutely no statistical data from Tesla - it’s all subjective now.

Can someone ask questions about FSD hard data at the ER ? If some one has registered to ask questions pls ask questions about disengagement rate, FSD take rate and # of subscribers.

Without hard data any SP movement around FSD and 8/8 is just FOMO + pump/dump.

ps : Nothing specific about you, but there are apparently some who think an actual fully working robotaxi will be shown on 8/8.

 

[juanmedina]

We have absolutely no statistical data from Tesla - it’s all subjective now.

Can someone ask questions about FSD hard data at the ER ? If some one has registered to ask questions pls ask questions about disengagement rate, FSD take rate and # of subscribers.

Without hard data any SP movement around FSD and 8/8 is just FOMO + pump/dump.

ps : Nothing specific about you, but there are apparently some who think an actual fully working robotaxi will be shown on 8/8.

Will the Vegas loop count as a fully working robotaxi?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We have absolutely no statistical data from Tesla - it’s all subjective now.

Can someone ask questions about FSD hard data at the ER ? If some one has registered to ask questions pls ask questions about disengagement rate, FSD take rate and # of subscribers.

Without hard data any SP movement around FSD and 8/8 is just FOMO + pump/dump.

ps : Nothing specific about you, but there are apparently some who think an actual fully working robotaxi will be shown on 8/8.

I wasn't talking about data from Tesla. I was talking about the Twitter user gathered data since it's all we have to measure progress right now

Like you said, if Tesla wants their autonomy to be valued materially higher than it is today, they need to start showing metrics and data themselves.

 

[EVNow]

I was talking about the Twitter user gathered data since it's all we have to measure progress right now

Are you talking about CYBRLFT ?

 

[Jim Holder]

Update: BIG breach here on the SPY, games are about to begin

I'd like to order a DCB to $512 so I can re-buy some SPY puts...

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, I was out playing music, so not following the markets, but could see there was quite some volatility - WTF was that all about?

And tomorrow we have jobs numbers and 4 FEDiots speaking, well 3, but Bostic, one of the biggest Hawks gets to speak twice

Aside the trades mentioned earlier:

STO 2x SMCI 5/3 -p1000 @$100.1
BTO 2x SMCI Jan 2025 +p100 @$316
STO 2x SMCI 4/26 -p930 @$35.1
BTC 5x NVDA 4/19 -p900 (net -$29) -> STO 5x NVDA 5/24 -p900 @91.1 -> plan is to straddle with 5x -c900 once this week's 5x -c850 have the extrinsic washed out

And yes, I know, the idea with the SMCI was to sell my Jan 2026 +p800's to fully fund the +p1000's (with the premium from the -p1000's, but it became apparent that I'll just make more money keeping them for the moment and selling 4x weeklies rather than 2x, why not... will sell the +p800 if they start to get too far OTM, like the NVDA +p600 I had for a while

 

[Patrick66]

Well, I was out playing music, so not following the markets, but could see there was quite some volatility - WTF was that all about?

Yeah, that caught me off guard. Questioning my NVDA stragtegy more as the price goes below $840. History tells me to keep a cool head, but it gets harder. Fundamentally I still believe that they are a great value and will be well over $1,200 in 9 months... but the path to get there is murky at best.

 

[Jim Holder]

He can’t complain about not having 25% voting if he keeps selling off his shares, right?

Do we know if the dates would stay the same? Will he still have that big tax sale in 2026 or 2027?

Maybe that's what's behind this odd mystery number

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1780705156830818676

 

[Jim Holder]

Okay to watch at 1.5x speed

8 minute update:

 

[thenewguy1979]

forgot to ask the bigMan.....

@tivoboy can you please share how are you aligning to ER next week? Not seeking FA but was wondering your stance since you've been on fired lately with the layoff and macro etc....

 

[Yoona]

Yeah, that caught me off guard. Questioning my NVDA stragtegy more as the price goes below $840. History tells me to keep a cool head, but it gets harder. Fundamentally I still believe that they are a great value and will be well over $1,200 in 9 months... but the path to get there is murky at best.

NVDA is inside 2 downtrend channels and resting on lower-BB and 50sma; couldn't get above mid-BB ceiling

if both are lost tomorrow then possible 825-830 which is the weekly/monthly support

last 2 minutes are all bearish

 

[Yoona]

tech selloff continues

 

[tivoboy]

I'd like to order a DCB to $512 so I can re-buy some SPY puts...

View attachment 1039424

If i told you to do that NOW, would you? I’m suspect.. ;-0

Disclaimer: three fingers, long day