I do hear and have watched (All In Podcast) that Google is crushing it and will do very well long term, even after the George Washington debacle
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
to be clear I am building a put position. I want to see pain before buying calls.
dl003 said: Added back 30% of what I took off the table yesterday around 187.6, 170/165 put spreads exp 6/7. Will add more next week if the cost makes sense.
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Here's how +P170/-P165 6/7 looks in OptionStrat:
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Here's how +P170/-P165 6/7 looks in OptionStrat:
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Yup though that seems more on the back of Model 3 finally getting back to normal production rate in Fremont, while CT remains below the levels some folks in the other thread seem to think it's at... -and would still be quite substantially down from Q2 last year- the other thing is a 1H total deliveries only adding up to to ~800k makes not having a whole year decline an exceedingly tough lift.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's based on dude guessing from drone footage of parking lots in Texas.
Troy is using actual VIN registration data, and it's still sub-1k--- his latest stuff is paid so I'm not gonna be super specific beyond that.
Very interesting. One question: Does any MM really have enough $$ to push the market around like that?
I believe we have a former MM member in our forum here (@EVNow?) who said it’s impossible.
(Though that consolidation range and break out slap down sure looks like our good ole’ TSLA chart.)
Based on drone footage though it is pretty clear they are averaging well over 1k/week, although there was a bit of a reduction with the accelerator pedal issue. I don't think the CT deliveries will be material for another quarter though; 12 vs 24k is still a nothingburger.
So stay out until after delivery numbers are in? I think I am planning to go short until a week or so before Q2 earnings report. (I still have too many TSLA shares so I guess it is really more of a hedge than being short.) I'll wait and see how things open tomorrow though before committing-- I want to see 183 again first.
I didn't watch the video but MM's do not have the power to move the market around long term. They can do it short term and have several levers to pull to do it.
TSLA is negative over 3 years while the market is at ATH. That is not MM's that is TSLA being trash.
There have been several that have done this. One most recent and notable was SoftBank fund X
Softbank identified as the 'Nasdaq whale' that bought billions in stock options, betting on higher prices for the biggest names in tech
SoftBank was reportedly the mystery "Nasdaq whale," that bought billions in big tech company options, adding to a trading frenzy.
www.cnbc.com
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
No, based on guesses from brief looks via drone footage someone speculated it was that much.
Actual VIN data says otherwise.
This could be a lagging indicator if it's like "Well, guessing at current run rate based on footage today gives a higher number than VIN data that's going to be a week or two old"
But VIN data as recently as a week or two ago shows the typical run rate has been under 1k at least through the end of that reporting period, whatever the drone guys guesses based on counting parking lot cars when his drone is up might be.
That said- you're right it's not especially material- Elon told us it wouldn't be material throughout the entire year. Folks keep speculating though and they seem to keep doing so in excess of the available hard VIN data.
The quarter is +16.7% QoQ and -15.0% vs. 23Q3.
The best quarter so far after 8 weeks.
YTD is at -3.3% YoY.
The best quarter so far after 8 weeks.
YTD is at -3.3% YoY.
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
NVDA is up $30 to $1100 overnight
AAPL up $1 overnight
TSLA down $1 overnight
Seems NVDA is intent on getting passed 1150 this week.
AAPL up $1 overnight
TSLA down $1 overnight
Seems NVDA is intent on getting passed 1150 this week.
This is based on my personal observations from obsessively watching drone footage. There is about 50-75% more activity with production now than there was when they hit 1k. There are a few variables that can't be factored out reliably on a week-to-week or day-to-day basis, but the averages seem to hold.
The VIN data isn't as reliable as many make it out to be; this has been seen multiple quarters before. During the Y ramp VIN values over-stated production; early in the CT production it was under-reported. There is some latitude with how they are registered apparently.
But, utimately it is speculation on all ends. None of us will know until there are concrete numbers provided.
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