Service and communication (out of main)

[Singuy]

Something that has served me extremely well over the years:

If it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck, it's probably a duck!

I guess I'm saying your statement about Neroden doesn't pass my sniff test.

Considering him knows exactly how badly short sellers got burned, I doubt he is into the camp of wanting to set his money on fire. His short thesis depends on Tesla never fixing service. I don't think he is the type of guy who bets on a "never" level of certainty.

If you see his other posts, he still defends and spread truths about the whole battery debacle class action law suit. Tq people are into conspiracy theories which Neroden is not into.

 

[tinm]

Based on his comment to that article, it's probably a good thing that he isn't on these forums. His dislike for Tesla service has grown to a point where he completely ignores evidence to the contrary and he irrationally equates service issues with a fundamental problem with Tesla's business that will cause it to go bankrupt. He completely ignores that dealerships have terrible service as well and like everything in life, the quality you get is going to be determined by your own circumstances and who you deal with.

Never mind the fact that the recent quality and satisfaction survey gave Tesla the high marks

I don't agree with @neroden on the bankruptcy thing, but I do agree that Tesla's service experience is atrocious. Not everywhere, but in some locations.

In my personal experience, here in New Mexico (where by law Tesla is unable to open even one service center), especially in the past six months right up til present day, Tesla's service has collapsed into a pile of rubble. Communication is even more insane and atrocious than ever, maddeningly Kafkaesque, and that is during those few moments when there *is* communication; weeks pass in-between such periods, and no degree of emails/calls/texts to Tesla make much of a difference. I'm to the point that if anyone were to walk up to me in New Mexico and say, so, should I buy a Tesla? I would say, if you live in New Mexico, DON'T buy one, wait until there's a service center here, and that might be years from now.

(Like always, I will add the perpetual disclaimer that once you get a mobile service tech to your house, they are knowledgeable, friendly, courteous, conscientious, and do everything they can to resolve all issues. I have no beef with the mobile techs. My beef's with the people (where they still exist) back in the cubicles in undisclosed locations who demonstrate zero accountability nor any understanding of the importance of managing expectations, and the senior management who likewise show zero accountability or understanding of the importance of managing expectations, but also, I fear, are utterly unaware of these service communications failures because they, like most Tesla owners in TMC, rely on confirmation bias and assume glowing reviews from surveys means everything's hunky-dory. It isn't.)

 

[StealthP3D]

Considering him knows exactly how badly short sellers got burned, I doubt he is into the camp of wanting to set his money on fire.

You're not making a lot of sense here. I mean TSLA longs have been burned too. Does that prevent him from being a TSLA long?

His short thesis depends on Tesla never fixing service. I don't think he is the type of guy who bets on a "never" level of certainty.

That doesn't make sense either. He said their terrible service is ruining the company and if they don't fix it very soon they will be bankrupt. If I believed that it would make sense to be short as long as you didn't see the situation improving. Taking a short position is reversible, much in the same way that Neroden missed out on the current bull run. If he was also short, it's a double disaster.

If you see his other posts, he still defends and spread truths about the whole battery debacle class action law suit. Tq people are into conspiracy theories which Neroden is not into.

Kinda like good cop, bad cop? I just find him irrational in his analysis of Tesla. And when he's currently out there saying things like "Tesla is dead", and "This was all avoidable by simply doing customer communications properly and spending the money to staff up service. Tesla is killing itself for super dumb reasons. It is already visible in the financial statements if you know how to read them.", well, I have to interpret them in a very plain way.

Because he talks just like a duck.

 

[Cherry Wine]

You're not making a lot of sense here. I mean TSLA longs have been burned too. Does that prevent him from being a TSLA long?



That doesn't make sense either. He said their terrible service is ruining the company and if they don't fix it very soon they will be bankrupt. If I believed that it would make sense to be short as long as you didn't see the situation improving. Taking a short position is reversible, much in the same way that Neroden missed out on the current bull run. If he was also short, it's a double disaster.



Kinda like good cop, bad cop? I just find him irrational in his analysis of Tesla. And when he's currently out there saying things like "Tesla is dead", and "This was all avoidable by simply doing customer communications properly and spending the money to staff up service. Tesla is killing itself for super dumb reasons. It is already visible in the financial statements if you know how to read them.", well, I have to interpret them in a very plain way.

Because he talks just like a duck.

Neroden was always prone to hyperbole. Everything he writes needs to be filtered with that in mind, imho.

 

[sdtslafan]

I always liked Neroden. He was truly a wealth of knowledge. Unfortunately, I think he probably sold his stock before the big rise and that must be very disappointing.

Regarding service, its hard to me to understand because my experience with San Diego service has been excellent for both my S and 3. As an investor, I only wish they would charge me more to do what they do. I think service in some of the other areas will iron itself out with time. But I think the true solution for Tesla is not only to improve service but more importantly to decrease the need for service in the first place. I believe this is why they are marginalizing sales of the X and S in favor of the more reliable 3. Elon knows they will never be able to care for a fleet that doubles every year (at least at the moment) if they don't get to the point that they essentially build vehicles that need nothing whatsoever. You can't promote the current S with its finicky door handles or the X with its falcon doors if you want to reach the goal of no service needed. Everything needs to be simple and just work. Big mistakes early on but as Colin Rusch said, this is a company which learns from their mistakes. I think this dynamic is what Neroden is missing. Eventually Tesla will improve to a point that service will only be needed for warranty items very rarely. The out of warranty work will increase and that will become a new source of revenue and earnings.

 

[StealthP3D]

Neroden was always prone to hyperbole. Everything he writes needs to be filtered with that in mind, imho.

That's good to know.

So, you're saying he's a hyperbolic short then?

 

[ZsoZso]

I don't agree with @neroden on the bankruptcy thing, but I do agree that Tesla's service experience is atrocious. Not everywhere, but in some locations.

In my personal experience, here in New Mexico (where by law Tesla is unable to open even one service center), especially in the past six months right up til present day, Tesla's service has collapsed into a pile of rubble. Communication is even more insane and atrocious than ever, maddeningly Kafkaesque, and that is during those few moments when there *is* communication; weeks pass in-between such periods, and no degree of emails/calls/texts to Tesla make much of a difference. I'm to the point that if anyone were to walk up to me in New Mexico and say, so, should I buy a Tesla? I would say, if you live in New Mexico, DON'T buy one, wait until there's a service center here, and that might be years from now.

(Like always, I will add the perpetual disclaimer that once you get a mobile service tech to your house, they are knowledgeable, friendly, courteous, conscientious, and do everything they can to resolve all issues. I have no beef with the mobile techs. My beef's with the people (where they still exist) back in the cubicles in undisclosed locations who demonstrate zero accountability nor any understanding of the importance of managing expectations, and the senior management who likewise show zero accountability or understanding of the importance of managing expectations, but also, I fear, are utterly unaware of these service communications failures because they, like most Tesla owners in TMC, rely on confirmation bias and assume glowing reviews from surveys means everything's hunky-dory. It isn't.)

Sounds like, the root of the problem is that Tesla cannot open service centers in the state, so they are overwhelmed with the few rangers they have and the communications fail too. Maybe the solution is for existing and potential Tesla owners in the state to raise their voice to the state and demand change of policy to allow Tesla to open service centers.

Spoiler: for conspiracy theorists

Maybe this situation is designed to fail to force a change in state policy, i.e. Tesla has the position, as long as they have enough demand world-wide they can't even satisfy, why bother with states that deliberately try to prevent them doing business.

 

[JRP3]

Wow.

Did Neroden turn into a short?

Tesla Is Finally On Track To Scale Up And Continue Showing A Profit

I have occasional contact with him. I don't think he'd ever short Tesla, or any company for that matter. Obviously he is quite convinced that Tesla has a fundamental structural problem with getting service right. I believe a large part of that is his first hand struggle with service over the last 6 or so years. Central NY is still something of a service wasteland. A recent Model X buyer I know locally had 7 service appointments cancelled and when service finally did show up they weren't able to fix all the issues. That has to be quite frustrating to say the least.

I'm to the point that if anyone were to walk up to me in New Mexico and say, so, should I buy a Tesla? I would say, if you live in New Mexico, DON'T buy one, wait until there's a service center here, and that might be years from now.

Neroden reached that point here in NY a few years ago for the same reasons. People who have had great service experiences don't seem to understand how bad it can get. I'm concerned that even with the improved quality in the Bloomberg survey service is still getting worse according to the same survey.

 

[theschnell]

I always thought that if @neroden bailed I would as well. However, my car needed body work which was done at a Tesla service center this year. While it could have gone a little better, overall it went at least as well as I would expect from anywhere else. But I was not able to talk to anyone ahead of time. Luckily for me, service center is an hour, so I made appointment on app and drove there. If I didn’t have a service center so close it could have been disastrous. I think if you don’t live near a service center, Tesla’s service can be disastrous. But that is something that is very fixable and I believe it will be fixed long before it generates a sales disaster.

 

[sundaymorning]

Did Neroden turn into a short?

Tesla Is Finally On Track To Scale Up And Continue Showing A Profit[/QUOTE]

He likely sold out before the spike, maybe he shorted some thinking it would be a smart move to rebuy at a lower price. At any rate, if he’s still talking about Tesla, I think he wants some shares, so let’s talk the stock down until there’s a buying opportunity is my guess.

 

[Skipdd]

I always liked Neroden. He was truly a wealth of knowledge. Unfortunately, I think he probably sold his stock before the big rise and that must be very disappointing.

Regarding service, its hard to me to understand because my experience with San Diego service has been excellent for both my S and 3. As an investor, I only wish they would charge me more to do what they do. I think service in some of the other areas will iron itself out with time. But I think the true solution for Tesla is not only to improve service but more importantly to decrease the need for service in the first place. I believe this is why they are marginalizing sales of the X and S in favor of the more reliable 3. Elon knows they will never be able to care for a fleet that doubles every year (at least at the moment) if they don't get to the point that they essentially build vehicles that need nothing whatsoever. You can't promote the current S with its finicky door handles or the X with its falcon doors if you want to reach the goal of no service needed. Everything needs to be simple and just work. Big mistakes early on but as Colin Rusch said, this is a company which learns from their mistakes. I think this dynamic is what Neroden is missing. Eventually Tesla will improve to a point that service will only be needed for warranty items very rarely. The out of warranty work will increase and that will become a new source of revenue and earnings.

Interesting perspective - I hope you are right but I fear not. I see the goal of constant innovation to achieve stated objectives, e.g., FSD, in direct conflict with your suggestion to “reach a goal of no service needed.” There are many examples of this across the cars. Point is, if no service required is the goal, then you have to release product that you know will never break. That requires orders of magnitude more testing and QA than we see today. And is in direct conflict with getting product to market.

I agree Tesla is a learning company, but they also appear to expect their customers to accept that as part of ownership. To some extent that’s ok with me. But the lack of transparency (e.g., batterygate), and moving of the goal posts (e.g., defining the MCU yellow border as a cosmetic anomaly, or claiming FSD will be Feature Complete, when things work in most cases) is testing that line. Each of us will have a tolerance continuum for what we will accept, and that will likely change based on our circumstance and what is available in the market.

 

[aubreymcfato]

M2c knowing Neroden from just his posts.
He is on the spectrum, and has serious health issues: hi sjob is to invest and the money are needed for his medical treatments.
He said that several times: he is *extremely risk-averse* in his investment strategies.
Being in the spectrum makes him the weath of knowledge and logic we all enjoyed, but I fear it also makes him prone to rely too much on logic, which other humans do not.
He sees service as a single-point-of-failure for Tesla.

 

[Frank Einstein]

Based on his comment -- and I'm not saying I agree with him -- he's bearish on Tesla because "This quarter's profit was on declining revenue, despite higher delivery numbers. Tesla is being forced to cut prices. The profit is made solely by cost-cutting, and Tesla has cut costs they must not cut." (such as customer service).

He sees a vicious circle of cutting costs too far which affects the quality of the product/service provided by Tesla, in turn forcing Tesla to cut prices to reflect the new lower-quality offer. Eventually, he argues, gross margins will be too low to cover overheads.

I've always had great respect for Neroden and I made sure I read his posts in detail. When he says he's turned bearish, I pay attention in a way that I don't for most other people. I also think it's important to set the record straight -- Neroden's issue with Tesla is this vicious circle, not specifically poor customer service which I think he sees more as a symptom than a cause.

I'm a Tesla bull and have been for a long time. I don't post much, I prefer to read and learn. But I don't want to be blind to any potential problems and, like any other human endeavour, Tesla is not perfect. We like to laugh about the TSLAQ blocklist on Twitter. Please let's not have TMC turn into an equivalent bull echo-chamber.

I don't think Neroden is right in this case, I think Tesla's future looks incredibly bright and I remain long. I just think he's not here to defend himself and he's earned enough respect not to be easily dismissed. He deserves to have people speak up for him. I only know him from his comments, I've never met him, but he strikes me as a good guy and I wish him well.

 

[JRP3]

Correct. He raises valid concerns, which I have as well. The difference is I don't think they are at company destroying levels, yet.

 

[bhtooefr]

And I just replied over there to him, pointing out that VW is legendarily bad at service...

 

[BBone]

Based on his comment -- and I'm not saying I agree with him -- he's bearish on Tesla because "This quarter's profit was on declining revenue, despite higher delivery numbers. Tesla is being forced to cut prices. The profit is made solely by cost-cutting, and Tesla has cut costs they must not cut." (such as customer service).

He sees a vicious circle of cutting costs too far which affects the quality of the product/service provided by Tesla, in turn forcing Tesla to cut prices to reflect the new lower-quality offer. Eventually, he argues, gross margins will be too low to cover overheads.

I've always had great respect for Neroden and I made sure I read his posts in detail. When he says he's turned bearish, I pay attention in a way that I don't for most other people. I also think it's important to set the record straight -- Neroden's issue with Tesla is this vicious circle, not specifically poor customer service which I think he sees more as a symptom than a cause.

I'm a Tesla bull and have been for a long time. I don't post much, I prefer to read and learn. But I don't want to be blind to any potential problems and, like any other human endeavour, Tesla is not perfect. We like to laugh about the TSLAQ blocklist on Twitter. Please let's not have TMC turn into an equivalent bull echo-chamber.

I don't think Neroden is right in this case, I think Tesla's future looks incredibly bright and I remain long. I just think he's not here to defend himself and he's earned enough respect not to be easily dismissed. He deserves to have people speak up for him. I only know him from his comments, I've never met him, but he strikes me as a good guy and I wish him well.

I'd echo not being an echo chamber like TQ! We have to have spirted debate without it becoming rancour. Neroden's points on service have been oft-debated and I'll add mine. I've had great service where I felt the service techs were my dear friends (Mississauga, Lawrence), other front staff service people were just so so (same places), and others where I perceived hostility or a lack of customer empathy (Lawrence) even if it wasn't. I prefer the dear friends way as a consistent approach to making me feel special. It doesn't change my objective hat analysis of TSLA as an investment, but as a customer of multiple $100k vehicles and an early adopter I really prefer a bit more of the personal touch and less of the MTO/DMV lineup feeling.

 

[JustSaying]

2018 White Model 3, SN # 99XX, 23k miles.
Service Record;
two tire rotations
First at my house by Tesla Service cost $0
Second at Costco cost $25.50

 

[Boomer19]

I agree with all of this. Firing unprofitable customers is an excellent strategy. There was a thread not to long ago about some nut who had refused delivery on 3 model 3s and was mad that he couldn't order a 4th. Unreal. Regarding that guy, yeah. I don't like bagging on people who aren't around, but he was quite rude to me during a disagreement on taxis. He thought that limiting cab licenses was good for consumers because it would prevent a glut of cabs which would force cabs to exist the business. Central planning is rarely a good idea. I don't understand his fame here. If you can't argue about a basic principle of economics without insulting the other person, that's a problem.

a thought about being rude. yes.
neroden even admitted to being ‘on the spectrum’. so while rude, he doesn’t see it that way. he doesn’t have the eq that normal person has. it wasn’t premeditated or intentional. if he was telling the truth. i believe him, considering his style, tact, in comparison to the people that i spend a lot of time around. annoyingly beating a topic to death is another trait i see weekly.

not an excuse, just an explanation.

so it’s unfortunate the service nightmare drove him to get banned for whatever envelope he ended up pushing too far (we seemingly won’t find out), and possibly dumping tesla, and continuing to rip service on disqus. however, i valued him,
his POV and his entertainment value.

 

[Boomer19]

Something that has served me extremely well over the years:

If it walks like a duck and it talks like a duck, it's probably a duck!

I guess I'm saying your statement about Neroden doesn't pass my sniff test.

he was definitely not a bear pretending to be a bull. he def seems bearish now though.

 

[Boomer19]

Correct. He raises valid concerns, which I have as well. The difference is I don't think they are at company destroying levels, yet.

and what’s kind of puzzling is that he credits musk repeatedly over the years for being a great cost engineer. so i’m still in the camp that some of this can apply to service, if they can get their act together quick enough. apparently he didn’t think so, but it seems to be a disconnect. maybe some time away form the stock for a little bit and he’ll come back around the next buying opportunity. the stress from the last year on top of being in service hell maybe just put him one through the wringer