I think the biggest issue with Tesla's replacement costs is that they hide the "core" return in that cost and generally refuse to do a battery replacement at all unless you pretty much give them the original battery for nothing. As recently as this month, I've had customers agree to do replacements with Tesla at their quoted $16-20k, but get turned down as soon as they tell Tesla that they want to keep the old battery. They won't do it.
In cases where the battery needs a relatively minor repair (replace a BMB, contactor, or other hardware) Tesla makes out like a bandit because they then have a refurbished pack to now sell at near 100% profit. When the pack has an actual bad module or whatever, they can put the remaining ones into their massive refurbishment pool, most of which customers just give up for free, and match them closely enough with other packs to do the same thing and resell at nearly 100% profit.
It seems like they should be doing what I'm already doing: Just charging the customer for labor plus the difference in useful value of the batteries in question. For example, if you bring me a car that has 14 of 16 good modules, I'm going to keep your old pack, you're going to get a full replacement pack, and your net payment to me is going to roughly be for two modules plus labor. Obviously some deviations from this if you're
upgrading at the same time, but you get the idea. It doesn't make sense to give me or Tesla your mostly-good battery for nothing, so why should you?
Tesla is in a position to do this just as fairly, if not even better than, I can... yet somehow I'm doing multiple battery upgrades/replacements per month after people get outrageous quotes from Tesla. It ends up being significantly cheaper for customers to ship me their car from across the country, have me do the replacement, and ship it back than it does to pay Tesla to do the replacement. To me, this is both a problem with Tesla and... well, to be blunt, ignorant customers that let Tesla take advantage of them.
Long story short, Tesla selling you a battery for $16-20k + core return of the same type is basically robbery unless the original pack is completely defective somehow (physical damage, flood, etc).