Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Alpha]

I doubt this has anything to do with any specific Tesla news. TSLA has exactly tracked the market today, just with a high Beta.

This is just because of bad news in the whole market-- All the major auto stocks are down more than 2%, Heck, VW is down more than Tesla, and Fiat also down 4%+

 

[CyberDutchie]

Gas prices continuing to climb may help Tesla.

 

[Norbert]

Also, if you feel disappointed by today's price move, read this review by Road & Track:

Return to Power: the 2013 Tesla Model S - Road Track

 

[mitch672]

I'm so had I decided to "hang in", for another %5 haircut today Good thing I don't need the money invested in TSLA short term.
Should have listened to my instincts and unloaded in the $39's when I could have, could have picked up many more shares at the bottom (which we haven't seen yet)

 

[Jeeps17]

Because he's outspoken, that is his nature. You take the good with the bad, though, I don't consider him being 'vocal' a bad thing. If he says nothing then we have the crowd that says, 'Why doesn't he stand up and defend his company?'. If he says something then we have the crowd that says, 'You shouldn't take on the NYT or Why is he whining?' One thing is for sure, you'll never please everyone, so you might as well start by pleasing yourself by being yourself. I applaud his fearlessness in everything he does, no matter whose feathers get ruffled. And I like the forthrightness and honesty because that means I know which side of the fence he's standing on, whether I agree or not.

I agree with the principle of your post, but if you watch the actual interview, he sounded unsure about numbers and what damage was actually done. One reason I chose to comment about it (since I generally have a similar philosophy as yours), was that the actual spoken delivery did not inspire confidence (for me, at least, and for this occasion specifically).

 

[agelston]

Gas prices continuing to climb may help Tesla.

Yup

And i've been thinking, to get even more crazy, a virutal utility of tesla cars.

O and using the superchargers to advtise the cost of energy per mile in gas terms on large signs by the highway. 200 in the northeast, they see cost 10gallon $/gas/miles cost charge $/battery vechine/miles and Free/Tesla/Miles. Also lets them market energy to non tesla cars at market prices.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Yea, not fun to watch. TSLA is nearly has lost about 15% of it's value in a week. It never made any sense to me that it dropped at all.

Tesla is expecting to be profitable very shortly and earlier than expected, which if you were long that's the bright spot you're looking for. If you're a pessimist and think they're dying, there's practically no price at which it isn't overvalued. I simply can't fathom why the 4th quarter report would lead anyone to think more negatively about Tesla's future than before the earnings call.

I'm curious if the shorts are going to increase or decrease. Market volume has been much, much higher since the earnings call.

Wondering if I should exit and get in later. These pull-backs are so crazy.

I had done the same thing when it first hit $38 but got too antsy and bought back at $37.50. Oh well.

Ignore the noise!!!

I have seen a lot of anxiety since the day after the earnings report. People should not be investing in TSLA if (1) They cannot afford to lose the money or (2) They cannot tolerate the roller coaster ride. Any company with a new "against the grain" product and business model is going to see a lot of volatility.

If you believe that Tesla Motors will be a success 10 years down the road, none of these short term movements should concern you in the least. For most investors, the only thing that jumping in and out of the stock accomplishes will be putting brokerage fees into the hands of financial companies. Of course, it is still fun to talk about the short term ups and downs... I just don't think people should make financial decisions on these events.

 

[NigelM]

I have seen a lot of anxiety since the day after the earnings report. People should not be investing in TSLA if (1) They cannot afford to lose the money or (2) They cannot tolerate the roller coaster ride. Any company with a new "against the grain" product and business model is going to see a lot of volatility.

Exactly. Patience Grasshopper.

 

[Krugerrand]

I agree with the principle of your post, but if you watch the actual interview, he sounded unsure about numbers and what damage was actually done. One reason I chose to comment about it (since I generally have a similar philosophy as yours), was that the actual spoken delivery did not inspire confidence (for me, at least, and for this occasion specifically).

I watched the interview and I didn't think he sounded unsure at all. I never get that impression from him, ever. I believe he was doing the math in his head on the spot and wanted to as fairly represent his belief as possible. It's difficult to put a number to the damage the NYT did and for him to arbitrarily throw out a number is not his style. He put out a number that he did the math on in his head and would be willing to back up if asked to break it down in the future.

IMO, he's often misunderstood and misinterpreted because he doesn't think like the average person, and therefore the average person has no experience interacting with, or interpreting someone like him.

 

[blakegallagher]

these pullbacks are crazy .... although not as crazy as the jumps in coming weeks will be .... and then most likely more crazy pullbacks after that ... Hopefully enough of those come over the next couple of years

 

[Norbert]

these pullbacks are crazy .... although not as crazy as the jumps in coming weeks will be .... and then most likely more crazy pullbacks after that ... Hopefully enough of those come over the next couple of years

While Tesla as a company is becoming quite solid (which many don't know yet), the future outlook can vary wildly, so I guess, yes, the share price will remain volatile on a higher level.

 

[aronth5]

Interview With Elon Musk: In The Loop (02/25): Video - Bloomberg
.

Elon projects 30k-40k annual Model S sales worldwide. First time I've heard that which is certainly good news if you're taking the long view.

 

[Norbert]

Does anyone think it won't go up again? If not, then why does it go so low, now that Tesla is profitable (this quarter)?

The best I know, the quarterly results only show that the ramp-up took longer than hoped, but it still happened at the end of the quarter. Nothing negative happened, only the positive took longer, but still took place. (Or is it a movement started by negative attitude from the NYT article?)

Volume still high, after little more than hour, already at 2/3 of the average daily volume. Surely for the same reason, whatever it is.

 

[aznt1217]

I have to keep telling myself I'm in it for the long haul and that markets are irrational.

 

[NigelM]

Does anyone think it won't go up again? If not, then why does it go so low, now that Tesla is profitable (this quarter)?

Because that profitability statement was guidance and not fact (yet) and Tesla has missed expectations on more than one occasion (most recently in Q4 of course). Analysts want companies to meet their (the analysts) expectations because that makes the analysis look good and that keeps their customers happy. Miss expectations too often and the analysts will turn bearish on you. And yes, I do think that analyst reports have some impact on investment decisions, which in turn affects stock price.

 

[Norbert]

Because that profitability statement was guidance and not fact (yet) and Tesla has missed expectations on more than one occasion (most recently in Q4 of course). Analysts want companies to meet their (the analysts) expectations because that makes the analysis look good and that keeps their customers happy. Miss expectations too often and the analysts will turn bearish on you. And yes, I do think that analyst reports have some impact on investment decisions, which in turn affects stock price.

I see your point, however except for BofA, analysts are not downgrading (that I know of), and the 12-month price target is currently $38 on average, as far as I can tell. And knowing you, I'd expect you to also believe it will go up again. As I said, the ramp-up did still happen, just only at the end of the quarter. Most analysts are on "buy" or even "strong buy" as far as I can tell.

 

[NigelM]

And knowing you, I'd expect you to also believe it will go up again.

Correct. Although I'll admit that pre-announcement I sold out completely, right now I'm just waiting to pick my point to buy back in.

 

[kenliles]

I went to a half position- I mostly play LEAPS Calls (J14, J15)- disadvantage is I can't play small moves because the spreads are too punishingly wide. I think it will go up, but not before it goes down along with market pullbacks in the next days/weeks, so like Nigel, I'm waiting for another entry- perhaps in the low $33 area

 

[hershey101]

So here is what I have gathered from my understanding of the price movements and the technical indicators:
We are close to the $31-$33 which used to be a technical resistance point in Sept. and acted as support for Dec. and Jan. facilitating the run up. Not to mention its close the 200 day SMA.
If we look at the chart, we see that the bears definitely had control with the huge down move on the day after the report, the bulls tried to regain some territory the day after but we see a candle w a very narrow body showing that no one gave up much territory.
Then yesterday, after the weekend, we see that the bears came back causing a lower high and lower low and once again we have a "spindle" where no one made any progress (idk if thats the technical term)...
If we look at the Ichimoku chart, we see that we are hitting the cloud, of support with minor bearish signal over the past few days, and the green cloud shows support in the ~$31-$33 area.... Which is confirmed by the bollinger bands which show we are at ~2 std. dev. from the 25day SMA and nearing the 2 std. dev. mark for 50day sma.

IMO It seems that the short term bearish momentum, though strong, is not enough to take out the long term support that has developed around the ~$31-$33 area, so we should see a few days (maybe a bit over a week) of consolidation of prices at this range as the bull market finds some footing and then run back up, hopefully with enough momentum to carry us through the 52-week high of $40.
Of course as several people have pointed out, if the market tanks it might take TSLA with it giving control to the bears but I don't see that happening... I think there is enough here to make some money over the next month or two as we head into the end of Q1.

 

[kenliles]

normally I would agree- and it really should support low $33s, given the real progress made, the $31-$33 will be tough to see again. If it wasn't for the sequester-crapola, I'd be buying more right here;
By the way, I assume the sequester will dump funding for EV rebates and effect sales, but I don't know that - does anybody know?