This is exactly my thought. Established players will shoot for the volume car first. And they have the deep pockets to undercut Tesla on price for a while. Will likely go to Panasonic for help in development of the battery pack as they already have experience now. But that will still take time considering proprietary limitations and battery management design specifics which Panasonic may not have full access to. The vehicle dash interface development will also take time, but they may already be in the midst of that as we speak. I give it 4 years before a major can come up with something close out of desperation. It won't get a a score of 99/100 I can tell you off the bat. Or they may sign more partnerships with Tesla to provide powertrains to get some EV versions of existing car (non-optimized platforms however) on the road a bit earlier. They are probably making those decisions as we speak..-Which route to take- Tesla Partnership or outright design from "scratch".
No-one is anywhere near close to Tesla. If they simply try to become competitive by starting off where Tesla started, they'll never catch up. Sure, the electric motor and inverter stuff in the Model S is neat, but it's the battery that is the key advantage. The car manufacturers who have looked into this have seen how hard it's going to be to get to where Tesla is now. The public is going to start learning about it over the next few years, and just as a "hemi" is understood by most people to be a thing that improves engine power, the vagiaries of electric car motors and batteries will become learned, known and appreciated by more and more non-expert people. There are certain other events that could cause trouble for Tesla in the long run, and they're all about the battery.
1) no-one else is making electric cars, but Tesla can't get enough batteries from Panasonic+Samsung to supply all the cars they want to make.
2) Everybody is making electric cars... and Tesla can't get enough, they're just lost in the shuffle of big companies
3) General Motors buys Panasonic, purely for their battery-making capabilities. They initially supply Tesla but that cuts off over time.
4) some sort of trade war erupts which, for whatever random reason, stops Tesla from getting enough batteries from outside the USA.
5) Tesla tries to open its own battery factory - right here in the USA!!! But can't get the raw materials to make it useful in the fight against the other manufacturers.
6) prices of the raw commodity materials for batteries start to get manipulated due to increased demand for batteries - more than it ever was in the laptop era - and Tesla has nothing special to compete against the other car manufacturers.
This assumed none of the materials in the battery pack are "rare earth" - but if any of them are (and this continues to be important if the battery chemical tech changes) - then Tesla is in a world of hurt and subject to the whims of governments, who even now work to guard their rare earth commodities. (Perhaps this wouldn't be a factor for Chinese buyers of Tesla cars, since they're located where there are a lot of rare earth elements) Consider a trade war that would threaten the production of car batteries. Oil producers would love that.
I agree this wasn't about short term TSLA movements, sorry