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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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That depends on whether they bought at $146 because they wanted to own the stock, or if they bought so they could be in on an earnings report bounce.
ShortSlaver
Member
Overall a decent day. Essentially in the middle of the high and low of the day, a bit lower than its close. The same sort of feelings after Q1. If I recall, the next couple days were positive followed by a TSLA Tuesday.
I sense that a lot of AUG option holders were hoping for a bigger boost. There's still time if you expire next week - I would pay attention to rapid increases tomorrow and Monday.
I'm holding some September options so I'm not as motivated to sell. I feel like TSLA has the potential to get to, if not exceed, the 180 range by mid-September if there's some good news.
Today was a day of indecision. The stock was rewarded with a nice bump up (14% is pretty great!) and had a tog-o-war and couldn't figure out if it should go higher or lower or stay put. Lots of panic selling/buying/etc. If it see's strength tomorrow expect a healthy amount of buying these next couple days. Lets hope the overall market helps it out there.
However, I wouldn't expect as much of a gain as May - that is don't expect the stock to double in a month. Also, realize that on massive earnings beats like this, an asset will have a pop and then keep a general upward trend over the next months.
I sense that a lot of AUG option holders were hoping for a bigger boost. There's still time if you expire next week - I would pay attention to rapid increases tomorrow and Monday.
I'm holding some September options so I'm not as motivated to sell. I feel like TSLA has the potential to get to, if not exceed, the 180 range by mid-September if there's some good news.
Today was a day of indecision. The stock was rewarded with a nice bump up (14% is pretty great!) and had a tog-o-war and couldn't figure out if it should go higher or lower or stay put. Lots of panic selling/buying/etc. If it see's strength tomorrow expect a healthy amount of buying these next couple days. Lets hope the overall market helps it out there.
However, I wouldn't expect as much of a gain as May - that is don't expect the stock to double in a month. Also, realize that on massive earnings beats like this, an asset will have a pop and then keep a general upward trend over the next months.
Is it possible to see a chart of after hours trading?
For instance, the three times I've looked at it since market closing it has been -0.18, then up +0.36 and now -0.52
For instance, the three times I've looked at it since market closing it has been -0.18, then up +0.36 and now -0.52
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
Thanks to all who have posted on this thread. Boy did you guys call it! So glad I got in on the action. I'm half way to a model s thanks to you all!
On the topic of Payment Required Investor Section, i think bad idea. However, great idea for a Level 2 Membership Area. Level 2 could have some benefits such as discounts to Teslive Events, exclusive content (photos, videos, articles, interview), chat, etc.
On the topic of Payment Required Investor Section, i think bad idea. However, great idea for a Level 2 Membership Area. Level 2 could have some benefits such as discounts to Teslive Events, exclusive content (photos, videos, articles, interview), chat, etc.
marvinat0rz
Member
Thanks for the concern. Yes I'm out partyly now with neat profits, but still some skin in the game in the form of still quite OTM calls bought on the premium dip this morning. I wont get slaughetered
When it comes to stock, I'm just like you and most other here - strict buy and hold, in since low 30's.
Options is just spice.
Very glad to hear you got out in one piece, and with success to boot. Your options play was way ballsier than anything I think I will ever attempt. Congratulations
AustinPowers
Total Smeghead
And I am amazed everyday at the TSLA performance in the last few months (and p***ed off that I didn't get in on the action when I started to put the stock on my personal watchlist - when it was at under 20 Euro!!!)
Since then I have watched the stock climb over ever higher (and before unsummountable-seeming) threshholds. I wanted to get in after the big jump to about 60 Euro, but thought then "it can't get much higher, it is so high above the 200 day average". Well, as everyone found out it smashed 70, 80, 90, even 100 Euro without a problem, and is now at 117 Euro and I still can't believe it. It is now valued at how many times the 2014 profits?
And what I ask myself again, should I get in on the action now, or would it be wise to wait for the price to normalize to somewhere in the range of the current 200 day average?
Note: had I bought 1,000 TSLA shares at 19 Euro each, when put it on my watchlist, I could now sell them and get myself a Model S from the winnings. Incredible (and annoying to think about what chance I missed...)
Unfortunately no options available here, neither long nor short. Pity we can't use US products :crying:
Since then I have watched the stock climb over ever higher (and before unsummountable-seeming) threshholds. I wanted to get in after the big jump to about 60 Euro, but thought then "it can't get much higher, it is so high above the 200 day average". Well, as everyone found out it smashed 70, 80, 90, even 100 Euro without a problem, and is now at 117 Euro and I still can't believe it. It is now valued at how many times the 2014 profits?
And what I ask myself again, should I get in on the action now, or would it be wise to wait for the price to normalize to somewhere in the range of the current 200 day average?
Note: had I bought 1,000 TSLA shares at 19 Euro each, when put it on my watchlist, I could now sell them and get myself a Model S from the winnings. Incredible (and annoying to think about what chance I missed...)
Unfortunately no options available here, neither long nor short. Pity we can't use US products :crying:
So here are some of my updated thoughts from today's stock movements...
1. A squeeze seems dramatically less likely to happen. 27m shares moved today but price was flat that whole day. It's kind of strange there wasn't more volatility. It's almost like the stock is stuck in the mid 150s.
2. Now that a squeeze is less likely, there's a growing possibility of the stock dipping into the 140s (my guess is 35-40% chance). Another reason why it could dip into the mid-high 140s is that we gapped up to the 150s and skipped over the 145-150 range completely. The gap fill theory is that stocks tend to retrace and fill any gaps. Doesn't happen all the time, but there's a tendency for it to happen like that. So, since we have a noticeable gap in 145-150, if TSLA is weak tomorrow, it could retrace to fill that gap. That's not necessarily bad because then we would have filled the gap now (and there could be less chance of filling that gap later when the stock is much higher).
3. Q2 earnings report reflections - So, I said earlier I thought Q2 earnings was very good to blowout. I'm thinking of changing that to just "very good". The reason being is a few things. First, when I first read the report, my immediate initial reaction was that it was very good but not blowout. I think I let the AH stock price (155+) and enthusiasm of others influence me to consider the report as very good to blowout. But I think my gut was that it wasn't blowout. It was very good. Here's what I wrote on the day before earnings on 8/7:
So, basically I think the report falls under the 1st scenario (70%) of a very good earnings beat. It solidifies Tesla's growth trajectory and provides good reason for the stock to continue it's upward trend from the past few months.
I still think there could be some kind of minor squeeze shooting TSLA to the 160s and touching 170, but I'm not counting on it in the next few days. I'd give it a 25-35% chance of occurring.
If there's no squeeze or squeeze effect, then we might be looking at some time to consolidate in the 150s (possibly dip to the mid-high 140s to fill gap), and then rising into the 160s after consolidation time in the 150s is done (which could take a couple days to several days or more).
Anyway, I'm still bullish on the stock overall. I think Q2 was a strong showing that Tesla, the company, is in great shape and charging ahead at full-speed. I think it's a good sign for the stock over the next few months. Of course, unexpected negative events could happen but I'm assuming we all know those risks.
1. A squeeze seems dramatically less likely to happen. 27m shares moved today but price was flat that whole day. It's kind of strange there wasn't more volatility. It's almost like the stock is stuck in the mid 150s.
2. Now that a squeeze is less likely, there's a growing possibility of the stock dipping into the 140s (my guess is 35-40% chance). Another reason why it could dip into the mid-high 140s is that we gapped up to the 150s and skipped over the 145-150 range completely. The gap fill theory is that stocks tend to retrace and fill any gaps. Doesn't happen all the time, but there's a tendency for it to happen like that. So, since we have a noticeable gap in 145-150, if TSLA is weak tomorrow, it could retrace to fill that gap. That's not necessarily bad because then we would have filled the gap now (and there could be less chance of filling that gap later when the stock is much higher).
3. Q2 earnings report reflections - So, I said earlier I thought Q2 earnings was very good to blowout. I'm thinking of changing that to just "very good". The reason being is a few things. First, when I first read the report, my immediate initial reaction was that it was very good but not blowout. I think I let the AH stock price (155+) and enthusiasm of others influence me to consider the report as very good to blowout. But I think my gut was that it wasn't blowout. It was very good. Here's what I wrote on the day before earnings on 8/7:
So, basically I think the report falls under the 1st scenario (70%) of a very good earnings beat. It solidifies Tesla's growth trajectory and provides good reason for the stock to continue it's upward trend from the past few months.
I still think there could be some kind of minor squeeze shooting TSLA to the 160s and touching 170, but I'm not counting on it in the next few days. I'd give it a 25-35% chance of occurring.
If there's no squeeze or squeeze effect, then we might be looking at some time to consolidate in the 150s (possibly dip to the mid-high 140s to fill gap), and then rising into the 160s after consolidation time in the 150s is done (which could take a couple days to several days or more).
Anyway, I'm still bullish on the stock overall. I think Q2 was a strong showing that Tesla, the company, is in great shape and charging ahead at full-speed. I think it's a good sign for the stock over the next few months. Of course, unexpected negative events could happen but I'm assuming we all know those risks.
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If it was in a tax-deferred account, it wasn't critical money, and you wanted to exposure to more gains/risk, then I'd lean toward rolling up (higher strike).
If it was in a regular account, then I'd pull out an Excel sheet and seriously consider the tax consequences of various scenarios, gains and probabilities/risks (ie., keeping and selling, keeping and exercising, rolling up, etc) and weigh all of them against each other.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You are right. It is all about the battery. But one major thing you left out - new battery chemistry (like Envia). If someone comes up with a breakthrough battery (likely given the amount of research going on) - then the major "moat" of Tesla is no longer a moat. The majors can make cars efficiently and effectively undercut Tesla models. I've not seen anyone really write about the competitive strategy and trajectory Nissan, BMW or Toyota might take in the next 5 years.
Ofcourse this is all long term - and should probably moved to the other thread.
Here is my opinion on TSLA:
1. Tomorrow we will have a flat day as people still don't know what to do about TSLA, it will probably take the weekend to figure this one out. If we don't have a flat day then we will have another +5% to 15% day tomorrow.
2. Next week will be a huge up week, after people finally realize the potential in this company and that the risks have been virtually eliminated. People keep talking about it's ridiculous valuation, but the valuation is not ridiculous.
First lets look at TSLA's valuation of $17b: In 2014 it will probably do between $3b - $4b in sales and have about $1 - $5 EPS or $140m - $600m in net profit. YoY sales growth 50%+.
I just looked at 4 companies that have some hype around them:
1. NFLX - $15b market cap, 2014 sales of $5b and $3.30 EPS or less than $200m in net profit. YoY sales growth of less than 20%. $250 stock price.
2. LNKD - $26b market cap, 2014 sales of $2.1b and $2.18 EPS or less than $200m in net profit. YoY sales growth of ~40%. $230 stock price.
3. SIRI - $24b market cap, 2014 sales of $4.1b and $0.12 EPS or about $700m in net profit. YoY sales growth of 10%. $3.80 stock price.
4. FB - $100b market cap, 2014 sales of $9.4b and $0.94 EPS or about $1.7b in net profit. YoY sales growth of 33%. $38 stock price.
And none of these companies have a strong moat around their business model as TSLA does. TSLA looks really cheap compared to these companies and their sales growth over the next five years will be exponentially greater. If the economy continues strong then I can see TSLA blowing by $200 by the end of the year easily (if the economy tanks then TSLA will go back to double digits, which will be a buying opportunity of a lifetime for some people).
I think that people will need to digest this information over the weekend and then will start piling into the stock starting Monday. At $150 TSLA is really cheap compared to some other companies out there.
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The battery is not Tesla's moat as most people think. Their moat is the supercharger network that will be built out very shortly, along with a bunch of other items like the "it" factor, "need to have" factor, "cool" factor, safety, speed, acceleration, awesome software, no legacy pension plans, no unions, location in Silicon Valley, and of course battery. Plus a bunch of other things that I can continue listing for a long time.
Nobody is going to stop Tesla.
1. Tomorrow we will have a flat day as people still don't know what to do about TSLA, it will probably take the weekend to figure this one out. If we don't have a flat day then we will have another +5% to 15% day tomorrow.
2. Next week will be a huge up week, after people finally realize the potential in this company and that the risks have been virtually eliminated. People keep talking about it's ridiculous valuation, but the valuation is not ridiculous.
First lets look at TSLA's valuation of $17b: In 2014 it will probably do between $3b - $4b in sales and have about $1 - $5 EPS or $140m - $600m in net profit. YoY sales growth 50%+.
I just looked at 4 companies that have some hype around them:
1. NFLX - $15b market cap, 2014 sales of $5b and $3.30 EPS or less than $200m in net profit. YoY sales growth of less than 20%. $250 stock price.
2. LNKD - $26b market cap, 2014 sales of $2.1b and $2.18 EPS or less than $200m in net profit. YoY sales growth of ~40%. $230 stock price.
3. SIRI - $24b market cap, 2014 sales of $4.1b and $0.12 EPS or about $700m in net profit. YoY sales growth of 10%. $3.80 stock price.
4. FB - $100b market cap, 2014 sales of $9.4b and $0.94 EPS or about $1.7b in net profit. YoY sales growth of 33%. $38 stock price.
And none of these companies have a strong moat around their business model as TSLA does. TSLA looks really cheap compared to these companies and their sales growth over the next five years will be exponentially greater. If the economy continues strong then I can see TSLA blowing by $200 by the end of the year easily (if the economy tanks then TSLA will go back to double digits, which will be a buying opportunity of a lifetime for some people).
I think that people will need to digest this information over the weekend and then will start piling into the stock starting Monday. At $150 TSLA is really cheap compared to some other companies out there.
- - - Updated - - -
The battery is not Tesla's moat as most people think. Their moat is the supercharger network that will be built out very shortly, along with a bunch of other items like the "it" factor, "need to have" factor, "cool" factor, safety, speed, acceleration, awesome software, no legacy pension plans, no unions, location in Silicon Valley, and of course battery. Plus a bunch of other things that I can continue listing for a long time.
Nobody is going to stop Tesla.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Supercharger network is not a "moat" - since others can replicate it (afterall, there are more CHAdeMO chargers now than expected super chargers in a couple of years). Their only moat is battery - and that is the reason for the "cool" and "it". If Model S had 100 mile range - none of those would be there.
BTW, Tesla has a big problem with supercharger location - they can't put many in the cities (unlike OEMS, who have dealers) because of cost.
Not true. The supercharger is not intended to provide all Tesla owners with free electricity. Their purpose is to provide range. As a bonus, it is free, except the $2000 you paid for access is a PIA service. The others can't compete because they would need to install chargers everywhere to accommodate the miniscule range of the city-use type electrics that the traditional manufacturers are serving up.
Until someone else serves up a safe, 200 mile range vehicle, and a supercharger network to service the extended range needs, Tesla is impenetrable.
I am still waiting for someone to replicate a supercharger. CHAdeMO chargers are 2.5x slower, so that does not compare at all.
The most important moat the Tesla has is Elon Musk and you can't replicate it; plain and simple. That is the only thing that really matters with Tesla.
great analysis Sleepy...and not to mention the most potential for the largest possible payoff is with TSLA because it is in a 1.5 trillion dollars year industry globally. The above other companies you mention I don't think think come close to that size in their respecitive industry. Would be interesting to add an extra couple columns to your data for each company: current yearly revenue of the industry they are part of, and what that industry's yearly revenue is estimated to grow to globally in 5 or 10 years.
Yes, and that industry is going to grow to about $2b in a few years. I think that Tesla will eventually grab 10% of market share and have $200b+ in sales.
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