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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Kevin - thanks for sharing... how much is your percentual gain from your original entering position? Just curious to know... thank you!

It is not a straight forward number since I started very small: bought a few hundred shares at @35. Then I realize it is special when it started to make a run above 40. I keep adding to it, mostly selling put (very cautious and conservative); then shifting to buying calls (the stock runs too fast for selling put to be effective, I actually sell put deep in the money to capture gain); made big bet before Q1; then at various dips at 85, 90, 110 and so on. Not all of my capital were committed at the beginning. About half was invested after Q1. Overall (prorated wise) I think it should be close to 10 x.
 
It is not a straight forward number since I started very small: bought a few hundred shares at @35. Then I realize it is special when it started to make a run above 40. I keep adding to it, mostly selling put (very cautious and conservative); then shifting to buying calls (the stock runs too fast for selling put to be effective, I actually sell put deep in the money to capture gain); made big bet before Q1; then at various dips at 85, 90, 110 and so on. Not all of my capital were committed at the beginning. About half was invested after Q1. Overall (prorated wise) I think it should be close to 10 x.

THank you and congratulations! Very impressive! I feel very grateful to be able to be part of this conversation and learn from yours and others knowledge. Thank you!
 
Kevin what are your thoughts for Q3?

Man that is kind of far out:confused:. Between now and then, there will be a lot more events driving the stock up or down.

If you read my article, I waited and waited until the optimal window opened up for me to shift the entire portfolio, just several hours before Q2. I was lucky there! The point is the stock move so much on a short term/daily basis, unless you hold it more than 3 months, I wouldn't consider much of Q3 factor yet.

Obviously long term wise I am a Tesla bull. But my trade time frame is about 2 weeks to 1 month. Within 2 weeks, the stock can run up or down 20%. I have to manage that kind of volatility.
 
Man that is kind of far out:confused:. Between now and then, there will be a lot more events driving the stock up or down.

If you read my article, I waited and waited until the optimal window opened up for me to shift the entire portfolio, just several hours before Q2. I was lucky there! The point is the stock move so much on a short term/daily basis, unless you hold it more than 3 months, I wouldn't consider much of Q3 factor yet.

Obviously long term wise I am a Tesla bull. But my trade time frame is about 2 weeks to 1 month. Within 2 weeks, the stock can run up or down 20%. I have to manage that kind of volatility.

Wow! I 'll have to re-read it, did not realize you went in very close to the Q2 Shareholder meeting!
 
Kevin, I saw that you blacked out the total account balance, why is that? I feel like that is relevant information if you are talking about profit and the gamble taken on a trade.
1) If you had 10 Million and made 1 million by gambling on far out of the money options, it was still just a drop in the pan compared to the 10 million you had.
2) However, if you had 100,000 dollars at start and then made a million dollars, that would appear to be much more spectacular of a gamble.
 
Over in the long-term thread:


[...]
BUT: You heard it on TMC first. Tesla Model S was the most sold(registered) car last week in Norway.
Tesla Model S nr. 1 i Norge! - Motor - Hegnar Online

You now have to wait about half a year for your car, even thou Tesla makes 250 cars for Europe each week. In Bergen, the waiting list for a testdrive is 3-4 weeks now

[...]

Might mean that the waiting time for Model S will increase in the US as well... demand larger than 500/week. Thought it would be worth referencing in this thread.
 
Kevin, I saw that you blacked out the total account balance, why is that? I feel like that is relevant information if you are talking about profit and the gamble taken on a trade.
1) If you had 10 Million and made 1 million by gambling on far out of the money options, it was still just a drop in the pan compared to the 10 million you had.
2) However, if you had 100,000 dollars at start and then made a million dollars, that would appear to be much more spectacular of a gamble.

It is for obvious reasons I black out the total balance. :cool:

You can still know the balance involved with the $1M bet on that day. I leave the dollar amount in those position screen grabs. You can add them up and calculate the ratio.

For me I really don't care much about that. the $1M is a milestone so I wrote this piece down. In trading, I focus on doing the right thing and money follows. I don't go for goal like "30%" or "double the money". I don't have brain cycle left for those.

And 'gamble' is the wrong message you get out of there.
 
It is for obvious reasons I black out the total balance. :cool:

You can still know the balance involved with the $1M bet on that day. I leave the dollar amount in those position screen grabs. You can add them up and calculate the ratio.

For me I really don't care much about that. the $1M is a milestone so I wrote this piece down. In trading, I focus on doing the right thing and money follows. I don't go for goal like "30%" or "double the money". I don't have brain cycle left for those.

And 'gamble' is the wrong message you get out of there.

My apologies, gambling is indeed the wrong word in this context. After thinking about it and reading your reply, I think blacking out the total is the right call and that the point of the whole exercise is the focus on the "making $1M".
 
Kevin, nice work! :)

Since we are getting into the details of a member's trading experience I think we need a separate thread for this discussion..

We need catalysts leading into earnings. Now that we have some momentum in Europe, I am waiting for pre-sales news from China and supercharger station plans/status there.
 
Kevin, nice work! :)

Since we are getting into the details of a member's trading experience I think we need a separate thread for this discussion..

Well I thought discussions should go to where the article is. :) People might accuse me stealing eyeballs away. But hey I include many links back to TMC so I don't see stealing back and forth.

As someone suggested earlier, I go for "investnaire" name instead of "teslanaire", indicating there are more to come on other growth stocks with the "Focused Investing" theme.
 
This is what Im seeing. Looks like tomorrow or the next day will be telling of whether or not we are going to stay in the channel and hold the overall uptrend. We're getting squeezed as indicated by the flag formed by support (purple) and resistance (red).

cLaOpaUd.png
 
This is what Im seeing. Looks like tomorrow or the next day will be telling of whether or not we are going to stay in the channel and hold the overall uptrend. We're getting squeezed as indicated by the flag formed by support (purple) and resistance (red).

Yarrrrg, Gap fill then indecision. 3 candles touching the bottom channel. I'd like to see close above $164.54 today.


tsla.png
 
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Over in the long-term thread:




Might mean that the waiting time for Model S will increase in the US as well... demand larger than 500/week. Thought it would be worth referencing in this thread.

It`s weird that the waiting time for the Model S is so short in the US. However the Norwegian Krone(NOK) is getting stronger so unless Tesla has done a Complete hedge they will earn some more in the future.
The P85 starts at 100 500$ in Norway now, against 91 000 in the US.(83500$ With federal tax credit) So even with shipping and prepped for Norwegian Winter, there is a big difference. Hopefully this will boost the goal of 25%
 
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