Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Norse]

189!! Finally! 500,93% up since I got my first shares!

 

[fjm9898]

volume is at 4.5million.

 

[Jhall118]

volume is at 4.5million.

Was looking at a bad chart when I wrote that. You are correct.

 

[kevin99]

$189.5! Feels like a squeeze!

I do think the Hertz rental news is more profound that it appears. Though the model S is still an exotic luxury car, it is no longer as exclusive as it was.

But at $500/day rental, that is a lot of money to ask for. The whole thing reads like a Tesla's pre-sale program. I am sure a lot of people will buy the Model S via this program.

 

[fjm9898]

the Volume the last 15min has been crazy to the up side. Some big money must be buying in.
$189.50. $190 anyone?

 

[justthateasy]

Wow, we're on the cusp of 190! This is definitely a welcome surprise!

 

[borat99]

Which one of you knuckle heads just bought 60,000 shares? Haha

Where did you see that? I don't see it on TOS.

 

[fjm9898]

Where did you see that? I don't see it on TOS.

I was just making a wise crack at the jump that happened at 1:09 that sparked this rally.

 

[kevin99]

at $189.5, I bought back some of ITM put @190 I sold early today for very nice gain.

Now my account is net Delta 0, meaning I am neutral, and more so on short term pull back as my Short call strike price ($195) is closer to the current price.

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I don't usually close a trade within the day (day trader), but market movement demands such action.

 

[justdoit]

Crazy past few days. Amazing how strong the stock is looking but my concern is that the volume seems to be fairly low. I think we're just in an amazing bull market. Just about everything seems to be green today

I don't know if I'll wait much longer for a pull back. I though this week would be the pull back due to debt ceiling debate. It'd be great if we traded flat so IV would come down but don't think that will happen either. So might start buying now and continue to buy on any pull backs (if there are any!).

 

[borat99]

I was just making a wise crack at the jump that happened at 1:09 that sparked this rally.

Ahhh.. Man, I was like somebody really put in an order for that many? Thinking to myself ... could it be kevin?

 

[Citizen-T]

To our Chartists, it is time to update your charts! Where are we in the channel? Definitely above the medium line, right? How close is it to the top boundary? Will this thing run to $195 before retreating? Incredible stock! ATH one after another.

As Rafiki would say, "it is time".

I'm shopping for protection right now.

 

[hershey101]

at $189.5, I bought back some of ITM put @190 I sold early today for very nice gain.

Now my account is net Delta 0, meaning I am neutral, and more so on short term pull back as my Short call strike price ($195) is closer to the current price.

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I don't usually close a trade within the day (day trader), but market movement demands such action.

Nicely done!
Over 300K shares exchanged hands in the last few minutes with 200K at 189.50 (seems like some serious pressue is being felt by short covering).
I myself sold the Jan '14 $200 calls for $19.10 at the local maxima to construct a (near) risk-free bull call spread with calls at Jan '14 $160 and $190. The $160s I purchased before the DB upgrade and the $190s the day after... I'm happy for this recent spike, it allowed me to get some cash back, and now I have more money for short-term plays, and that pullback that seems like it will never come! Sigh, I keep on telling myself, patienence is key... I have been very conservative as we moved above $120, and I missed out on the run from $80-$120 because I was scared of the sudden triple in the stock price.
We all know that this chart has gone parabolic, and short term Bollinger bands suggest a ~10 point move downward. I would be very happy if we spent the majority of October in the $170s-$180s... then back to making new ATH at $200+.

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As Rafiki would say, "it is time".

View attachment 31462

I'm shopping for protection right now.

Haha, I'm avoiding buying puts! Feel much better to sell calls instead to bring my account to a more delta-neutral position.

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Thanks to everyone who contributes on this board. I have learned so much over the past 6-8 months. Thanks Citizen-T, kevin, CappitalOpressor, smorgesboard (I appologize if I spelled some of your names wrong)...

 

[ckessel]

Haha, I'm avoiding buying puts! Feel much better to sell calls instead to bring my account to a more delta-neutral position.

What time frame do you sell the calls at? Very short term, like next week, or longer?

 

[hershey101]

What time frame do you sell the calls at? Very short term, like next week, or longer?

For my last play, I sold the Jan '14, to co-inside with the Jan '14 calls I bought and make the calculations on the risk-free call spread easier. But if I were to just sell calls for protection, it probably wouldn't be further out than mid Oct. I have no idea how crazy this is going to get once we get into the pre-earnings rally mode and I'm not going to risk it. I still have DITM calls (stock replacement strategy because my overall portfolio isn't big enough to support buying TSLA) that provide some net positive delta on my account. But that is part of my core investment so I'm not touching that unless I need money for quick short-term high-profit, low-risk trades (like buying when TSLA crashes $20-$40 because some analyst at GS thinks its over valued).

 

[Citizen-T]

Bought Oct 11 $190 puts to cover my whole position for $8.35 ea.

 

[hershey101]

For my last play, I sold the Jan '14, to co-inside with the Jan '14 calls I bought and make the calculations on the risk-free call spread easier. But if I were to just sell calls for protection, it probably wouldn't be further out than mid Oct. I have no idea how crazy this is going to get once we get into the pre-earnings rally mode and I'm not going to risk it. I still have DITM calls (stock replacement strategy because my overall portfolio isn't big enough to support buying TSLA) that provide some net positive delta on my account. But that is part of my core investment so I'm not touching that unless I need money for quick short-term high-profit, low-risk trades (like buying when TSLA crashes $20-$40 because some analyst at GS thinks its over valued).

Also, as for the trend-lines. If I extrapolated correctly it seems the upper part of the line is at $190 for today. TSLA did break the trendline to the upside once in June, but it came back down to settle within the trend, with about 2-weeks of consolidation. I don't wanna see this trendline being broken again, especially since the 2-dev. of the 20-day SMA is at $195. If we start crossing over the $190+ territory today or tomorrow, I would start getting worried about the chart becoming parabolic in the short term. Last time I tried investing in a parabolic chart was Gold in 2009, and ended up loosing my entire portfolio, so I'm out if I see any sign of a parabolic chart (no matter how much I believe in TSLA).

 

[Citizen-T]

And, if the trend breaks, I won't know when to buy and sell options anymore! I agree, keep it between the lines TSLA. =P

 

[ckessel]

Bought Oct 11 $190 puts to cover my whole position for $8.35 ea.

Presumably the intent is to sell the options at a profit rather than actually sell your stock?

 

[kevin99]

Ahhh.. Man, I was like somebody really put in an order for that many? Thinking to myself ... could it be kevin?

Very wise crack. I am flattered :wink: One day I will have that power... not quite at the moment so don't accuse me for influencing the board when I share my read and action with all of you!