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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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Well I gambled on winning some from the high premiums and sold yesterday the 195 put for december. Then today at the dip to 185 I sold another one bringing the average sale price to $25. So my break-even in December is $175 which should be a breezer assuming that no major catastrophy hits and that the Q3 is a beat holding or ballooning TSLA over $200 that I and everyone here assume. It's a risky long position and I might have to consider some hedge at some point.
 
Are we nearing the bottom of the channel?

Yep, I think CitizenT/twitter is right with $178 as bottom if its hit in the next two days or so.


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How about another $50?

This is not going to end well.

So you are predicting we drop out of the current channel, down to $130?
 
Yep, I think CitizenT/twitter is right with $178 as bottom if its hit in the next two days or so.


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So you are predicting we drop out of the current channel, down to $130?

Only if it's confirmed that the fire was a result of a cascade failure of the main battery pack. Evidence so far is consistent with that, but it is also consistent with some other possible causes as well.

Right now, I am leaning towards it being a problem with the 12v battery causing the fire (assuming its a Tesla mechanical failure, as opposed to some unrelated black swan event) which is not nearly as bad as a problem with the main pack, but will still cause a significant short term run on the stock I think.
 
I'm going to begin unwinding my hedges before the end of the day. I'll probably start by buying back the calls that I sold. I'll make ~40% on them if I sell right now.

I just did this an hour ago. Missed this new drop, but made 40% on the 195s I sold...on Monday, I think. Unfortunately it was only two contracts, heh.

Then I bought some calls when the stock was at 185 or so, that's not working out so far :-/
 
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