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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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hershey, i am willing to bet that if we finish above 162.50 we might see a nice $5-10 rebound tomorrow. (Pending more negative news or a bad market day)

Edit: we are really going to need the NASDAQ to break 3950 and clear to get to 162.50 though. Its making its 3rd attempt now
 
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hershey, i am willing to bet that if we finish above 162.50 we might see a nice $5-10 rebound tomorrow. (Pending more negative news or a bad market day)
I got myself a risk-free call spread out of this mess. And a bit of cash on the puts I bought after hearing about the fire yesterday. I sold the puts too quickly though (with the market basically not moving on the news yesterday and during AH and Pre-market, I thought it would be a non-event). Sold them when we went around $158 for about a 30% profit, but could have easily made more than double had I kept them a bit longer.... I just got tired of waiting at $153, thats when I bough some weeklies... As long as Tesla ends the week above $165 I'll be happy. Although I really really hope we break $200, I think thats just being hopeful, not smart. I doubt we break $185 after earnings. We know deliveries were around 5800-6000. They will probably guide for 22K for the year and not sure if they will give next year guidance or not but if they do, its going to be 35K.. I'm looking for a non-GAAP EPS of about $0.15 on 20% gross margins which is better than the street, but I think not blowout.
 
I'm sitting on 50 puts I sold for 145 back when it was in the low 180's. My account is having huge fluctuations. I just hope it holds over 145 after earnings.


What a wild day.... From $165 at open to $153 now back to $162.... My porfolio is up 5K for the day (although still down 10K from the high at $194, and 15K from the rebound after the first fire)... Le sigh.. I want to see more of those +$15-20 gap ups :(
 
This doesn't exactly fit in the short-term thread, but I thought I'd post it here to give some context for those that are trading the stock short-term, while having a core investment position of Tesla stock.

Andrea James sent out a note today and she reinforced what she felt matters for Tesla:

- The one-off accidents really do not impugn the safety of the Model S
- Valuation of Tesla is not tied to Q3
- Big story is 3 years down the road and revolves around the next product cycle
- Big story is tied to:

1) The execution of getting costs down
2) Designing a great Model X
3) Designing a great Gen III and
4) Continued development of overseas markets

Like some of you, I have been hammered recently with some shorter-term call options I was trading, but remembering the longer-term story here with Tesla helps keep some of my shorter term stress in check. I think we understand that Tesla is an incredible company with a very bright future ahead. If it continues to execute, there are incredible times ahead.
 
not to sure WTF just happened to FB but it probably helped hold the NASDAQ back from a breakout. AAPL is not helping either.
But hey look on the bright side. TSLA is doing better then FB for once in the past week of falling.

EDIT:
Here we go 162.50 we need some Index Help!
 
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Screen Shot 2013-10-29 at 21.00.40.png

Seems we found a parallel trendline the past hour. Hope it holds.
 
The shape of the price movement today looks strongly like investors and algos seeing TESLA FIRE, panic or auto-selling, and then actually digesting that what happened is a smiling dude rammed his car into a wall and then got out unharmed and asked for another Tesla. We all knew this yesterday, but it takes the market a while to figure these things out. Dare I say I have SLIGHTLY renewed confidence in the sheeple's ability to process news today.

Made money with my first day trade ever, opening and closing a weekly 160 call for 115% profit. All things considered, that was nice.

I'm calling 164.64 close because why not.
 
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