Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[fjm9898]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000212258&__source=yahoo|headline|quote|video|&par=yahoo

end of this video they are talking about exactly this. possible rebound to $180 before earnings.

I haven't seen any evidence yet that Tesla will not meet estimates. But if they up their guidance to 25K cars for this year and then guide for 35k next year, market will not look at that positively. I won't either. The stock has dialed in a higher rate of growth than that. I would rather have them guide to a larger (45K +) but realistic number and then beat by a decent margin (60k +). Low guidance for deep into 2014 can have a adverse negative impact on the stock at this point.

not sure why you quote justthateasy when making this statement.
i also think your numbers are way way over done. i see 40k production possible 45k max next year. guidance will probably be for 35k. no way they are shooting for 45k because that is a near impossibility to get to. No way they are getting to 25k this year.

 

[AlMc]

Well. we will all know in 7 days and either be celebrating or commiserating a day after. Sorry, I know that added nothing to the conversation.

My position has evolved into worrying less about Q3 production, delivery and GM (I care, but care less) than about guidance as Elon/TM has proven to beat guidance. I would like to see guidance of Q4 for GM of 25-26%, delivery of 23K in 2013 with comments that TM has now freed all supply bottlenecks and will be adding a third shift in late Q4 and a second production line at the end of 20114Q2 for the model X which will start delivery in Q3 2014. In addition, that demand in the US/Canada and Europe is strong and that the Asian market will be heavily targeted in mid 2014.

MY 'pie in the sky': We have reached an agreement with a Chinese manufacturer (Kandi?) to open a joint factory in China to produce model S for the Asian market in mid 2014.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

This should provide some boost today:

PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

No mention of what kind of weekly production numbers it enables, but it's 2B cells over the course of four years. 2B cells at 7k cells / car would give 285714 cars!

 

[maekuz]

This should provide some boost today:

PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

No mention of what kind of weekly production numbers it enables, but it's 2B cells over the course of four years. 2B cells at 7k cells / car would give 285714 cars!

I think this big news. Battery supply for S and X seems to be secured. I am happy.

 

[sub]

This should provide some boost today:

PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

No mention of what kind of weekly production numbers it enables, but it's 2B cells over the course of four years. 2B cells at 7k cells / car would give 285714 cars!

if we can't get at least a small bump tomorrow I'll be surprised. Where is mr Peterson when you need him? What time is it there Mario? I'm currently in oahu so I'm doing some pre bedtime reading. Thanks for the calculation, I was too lazy but I knew it was enough .

 

[FredTMC]

This should provide some boost today:

PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS | Press Releases | Tesla Motors

No mention of what kind of weekly production numbers it enables, but it's 2B cells over the course of four years. 2B cells at 7k cells / car would give 285714 cars!

Yep. Very good press release. I too am happy that the amount of cells supplied clearly enables powering of hundreds if thousands of cars.

 

[mershaw2001]

if we can't get at least a small bump tomorrow I'll be surprised. Where is mr Peterson when you need him? What time is it there Mario? I'm currently in oahu so I'm doing some pre bedtime reading. Thanks for the calculation, I was too lazy but I knew it was enough .

This is huge. Three things were holding telsa back this summer, and battery supply was one of them. The final announcement of more batteries IS HUGE. Combine that with the strength we saw emerge this afternoon in trading (closing green after a 10 dollar drop is a tremendously strong move) and it looks like futures are up tomorrow. These three will send tesla up, in my opinion, and i think we're back to 170+. Or I should say I hope we are. I actually think apple will be up a bit and we'll see that drag nasdaq up.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

if we can't get at least a small bump tomorrow I'll be surprised. Where is mr Peterson when you need him? What time is it there Mario? I'm currently in oahu so I'm doing some pre bedtime reading. Thanks for the calculation, I was too lazy but I knew it was enough .

It's 9AM CET so market open for EU

 

[brianman]

It's 9AM CET so market open for EU

What's the best place (URL) to look at the EU exchange (from the U.S.)?

 

[mershaw2001]

Is this the best place to look at the EU exchange (from the U.S.)?
Tesla Motors, Inc. (TSLA) Real-Time Stock Quote - NASDAQ.com

It doesn't look like it's ticking/updating, though.

Hm, that link isn't the same I was looking at a minute ago. Lemme look some more...

TL0:Frankfurt Stock Quote - Tesla Motors Inc - Bloomberg
i think this is tesla on the german market. However, i think it follows the us, and doesn't truly adjust for news.

 

[brianman]

Thanks.

 

[sub]

I usually look here, it adjusts unless my clock is wrong.

TL0:Frankfurt Stock Quote - Tesla Motors Inc - Bloomberg

 

[Johan]

TL0:Frankfurt Stock Quote - Tesla Motors Inc - Bloomberg
i think this is tesla on the german market. However, i think it follows the us, and doesn't truly adjust for news.

Mostly follows Nasdaq but sometimes we can see changes in sentiment here agead of US markets opening, albeit at much lower volume.

 

[mershaw2001]

Pre-market: 165.90 +1.43 (0.87%)
also keep track of what's happening with apple, as i think that is relevant to the tesla story. apple at 519 +3 premarket.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I usually use Stock Market News, Business News, Financial, Earnings, World Markets - CNBC to see various markets. For example Asia finished strong with 1.5-2% upswing, EU has opened well with 0.2-0.4% already up and trend continues and if you choose Markets -> Pre market you can see also that the futures are up for US exchanges. So if this sentiment remains for the general market and this Tesla huge news is processed in time of market open we're bound for a strong upwards move today I think, which if we break the MAs might bring us back to the $180's range pre-earnings. If this is good or bad I can't tell really, but the great part is that one can at least hedge

- - - Updated - - -

Pre-market: 165.90 +1.43 (0.87%)
also keep track of what's happening with apple, as i think that is relevant to the tesla story. apple at 519 +3 premarket.

I think it's far far too early for any real pre-market. It's about 5 AM in NY and I think it's really pre-pre-pre market right now I think some action arrives around 6 AM that is still weak indicator with the real pre-market opening around 8 AM. There are various levels of access so usually the pre 8 AM market is hundreds of shares traded if anything and has no real sentiment on the rest of the day.

 

[Larken]

Let the short squeeze begin :biggrin:

 

[Fast Laner]

High Brianman,

yo might want to move these posts to a new thread like what places tesla is being traded.

The german market would not react on news like this one. The german market reacts on the nasdaq ticker (pre-market and market), he overreacted for example yesterday at 11 a.m. EST down to 111 euros.

the website for Frankfurt 08 -20 GMT and XETRA 9 to 17.30 GMT is this one

http://www.boerse-frankfurt.de/de/aktien/tesla+motors+inc+ag+US88160R1014 click on "ich stimme zu"

I've writen on the german market at least three times.

Fast Laner

 

[Jack6591]

Bullish + Short Squeeze + Earnings = Christmas

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas, every where I go

 

[v12 to 12v]

I just got this shareholder alert from Tesla: PANASONIC AND TESLA REACH AGREEMENT TO EXPAND SUPPLY OF AUTOMOTIVE-GRADE BATTERY CELLS

Here's some juicy tidbits:

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 30, 2013

OSAKA, Japan / PALO ALTO, Calif. – Panasonic Corporation and Tesla Motors today announced that the two companies have reached an agreement in which Panasonic will expand its supply of automotive-grade lithium-ion battery cells to Tesla. With this agreement, the two companies update and expand their 2011 arrangement to now supply nearly 2 billion cells over the course of four years. The lithium-ion battery cells purchased from Panasonic will be used to power the award winning Model S as well as Model X, a performance utility vehicle that isscheduled to go into production by the end of 2014.

This agreement builds upon a multi-year collaboration between Panasonic and Tesla to develop next-generation automotive-grade battery cell sand accelerate the market expansion of electric vehicles. Panasonic’s cells combined with Tesla’s proven EV battery expertise have already enabled more than 130 million customer miles driven in Tesla Roadsters and Model S.

“This expanded agreement with Panasonic is important to Tesla as we continue to increase the pace of production,” said Tesla Co-Founder and CEO Elon Musk. “We look forward to strengthening our relationship with Panasonic, and I’m confident that this partnership will continue to be an integral part of Tesla’s success for years to come.”

Together, Panasonic and Tesla have developed a next-generation battery cell technology that provides the highest energy density and best performance cells in the market. Panasonic’s cylindrical cell is a customized technology designed specifically for optimizing electric vehicle quality and life. These cells are integrated by Tesla into the battery pack in a way that enables an industry-leading range of approximately 265 miles for the Model S.

“We are extremely proud to be a strategic partner of Tesla,” said Yoshihiko Yamada, president of the Automotive & Industrial Systems Company, an internal company of Panasonic. “Panasonic will increase its production capacity of lithium-ion battery cells to supply Tesla’s growing needs as it expands its production of EVs.”

---update---
I guess I was late in getting this. I posted it the minute I got it.

 

[MartinAustin]

The Cavalcade Of Stars begins, one week before the earnings release. I believe this to be the first of many news items deliberately coming out to help folks who want the stock to go up. (up 1.39% now in premarket)

Here is a very rough napkin calculation: while they don't say exactly how many batteries, let's say it's 1,950,000,000 batteries over the next four years. If there are 7,000 in each car (assuming all of them are 85KWh) that translates to 279,000 cars over 4 years. Even more cars, if you build some 60KWh batteries. Nice!