Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[hershey101]

good luck, all the best !

Thanks...
Also Volume is ~7M right now... we could see 12-14M before the day is over...
And the RSI just hit 30! That has not happened in forever!

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I love the bounce back now, but I'm not loving the volume on what it's happening. I need about a $20 move upwards pre-earnings to enter ER in the green and be able to hedge shorter term options. Post-ER I need ~$185. So it's not all bleak and right now I can only be disciplined seller as my portfolio value dropped below $25k meaning my day-trades are 0 for the next five trading days unless TSLA moves back up enough that I break $25k on the portfolio again. Right now I'm ca 25% down from net-zero and ca 50% down from a couple of weeks ago

 

[FluxCap]

I bought a weekly 160 call a few minutes ago to see if there was still some profitable brass in my scrotum. Up 35% so far.

 

[fjm9898]

I am looking for the double bottom bounce before i go long for the week. the NASDAQ helped to pick TSLA up off the ground. It moved from -0.1% to +0.15% which carried TSLA up with it. Hence the low volume on the move up. So i expect it to be weak right now and possible fall back down. Especially if the NASDAQ falls.

 

[dmckinstry]

In that world, the world of 2013-2015, I agree. But we're We're talking Model E.
1) To compete mass-market, price is more critical, and it's logical to take lower margin to drive sales. No point in launching model E if production constraints are still key issue.
2) And in any case, Elon's long-term goal is to catalyze electrification, not maximize profits.
3) & in that foolish article, it envisioned $20k margin on $55k car = 36% margin.

I speak as a TSLA long. Our case not helped by people being silly. There are much more robust arguments that get you to $1k stock price within 5 years. But this was not one of them!

Agreed. $20k margin seems absurd. As the purchase price of the car drops the margin has to drop.

- - - Updated - - -

Weak longs, it's all emotional! People are getting scared as they've seen the huge paper gains on their monthly statements and see some portion of it evaporate. What they don't realize, they're contributing to the downfall by selling. Thinking, oh I'll get back in later at a lower price. Think twice people, is all I can say. If you're long, stay long! You were not selling when it hit $193 but now suddenly you are selling???

My wife has been encouraging me to sell half, if it gets down to $150. But I tell her that if I wouldn't sell at $190, there's no way I'd sell at $150.

 

[ckessel]

Heh, bought puts as a hedge with the tiny amount of money I had left when the 2nd fire broke out yesterday. Nothing happened all day so I sold it at the end of the day for a wash. Of course the stock tanks this morning.

We're down 20% since the ATH. Has TSLA dropped 20% before, ever, other than the decline after the IPO bump? There was about that as a very long decline in 2012 from the ~$37 ATH, but that was over months in the dead time before Tesla started shipping the Model S.

 

[fjm9898]

Massive support at 156.50. Lets see if it holds out. I sold my Puts, still not ready to go long just yet though.

 

[FredTMC]

My wife has been encouraging me to sell half, if it gets down to $150. But I tell her that if I wouldn't sell at $190, there's no way I'd sell at $150.

Ditto. No way I'd sell my stock. I'm long term.

 

[Convert2013]

Ditto. No way I'd sell my stock. I'm long term.

Hi Fred, same here. I sold yesterday as soon as I heard of the 2nd fire but got back in in 5 minutes. Have been buying yesterday and today. Where about in OC are you? We are getting a Tesla store in MV mall.

 

[Causalien]

I went long on principal. Structured out the volatility premium.
In my book, 20% drop in price is reserved for either an earnings miss or a recall and hence should not happen during the week leading up to earnings when the outcome can only be known adter earnings... unless of course, there's a leak of some bad news.

 

[justthateasy]

This bounce from the intraday low was nice along with the support at 156.50.

 

[Convert2013]

I went long on principal. Structured out the volatility premium.
In my book, 20% drop in price is reserved for either an earnings miss or a recall and hence should not happen during the week leading up to earnings when the outcome can only be known adter earnings... unless of course, there's a leak of some bad news.

2 fires within weeks of each other spooked investors of this young company, including myself yesterday. I was worried yesterday more so because I had to deal with the Boeing battery fires earlier this year. Boeing has deep pockets and I knew would have recovered, and they did. Their stock hardly reacted (I don't own Boeing stock). Tesla is another story. Startup brick and morter, hence much more vulnerable. Anyway, happy so far the fundamentals are still strong with Tesla. I am a buyer at this point going into ER.

Again, the smart money has been in and out of TSLA. I am dumb money, and who knows maybe in the end sometimes that's even smarter . I know only to buy and hold and accumulate on opportunity, given no change to business fundamentals.

 

[ggr]

Again, the smart money has been in and out of TSLA. I am dumb money, and who knows maybe in the end sometimes even smarter . I know only to buy and hold and accumulate on opportunity, given no change to business fundamentals.

For every in-and-out who made money, another one lost money. You have to be smart AND lucky to make money on the volatility. I don't trust my luck, not when I have a day job and can't watch every minute and every news feed. For all the pain in the last couple of weeks, I'm still confident about earnings and still way in the green.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Seems we're following pretty concrete trendlines today. Been following them for a few hours.

 

[fjm9898]

i bought some weekly calls, really limped in though, @157
At the time i was still not confident of a strong bounce back due to volume and how beat down the stock is. i saw the volume start to pick up and got in with a few weeklies.
Also tossed a bit of cash at my ER calls to average them down some more. Pending any other bad news we should be safe here and it would be nice to get back over the $160-ish support level which is probably going to be a new resistance point.

 

[Causalien]

It's pretty funny watching wsj wasting space on car fires. There are more important things in the world like China secretly setting up its own gold backed reserve currency.

I think if Tesla is still on government loan right now, a 20% drop is justified. But someone had the foresight of getting the heck out of that arrangement.

 

[justthateasy]

I'm liking how TSLA is back up to 159 but it's looking at bit choppy here according to my 5 minute chart. It's looking like we might be getting some sideways movement between 158-159. Also, TSLA looks like it wants to edge back up to 160 and beyond but it's encountering some resistance.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

If TSLA were to keep to the trendline it's been following since the daily low until the close, then we'd see ~$168 by close So likely it'll be broken at some point. Not that I'd mind a run back to $168 and beyond.

 

[dcopperfield]

hey guys, what software / website do you use to get the best up- to the minute charts?

 

[MartinAustin]

2 fires within weeks of each other spooked investors of this young company, including myself yesterday. I was worried yesterday more so because I had to deal with the Boeing battery fires earlier this year. Boeing has deep pockets and I knew would have recovered, and they did. Their stock hardly reacted (I don't own Boeing stock).

Boeing's stock did react, I was able to buy some and was able to make a small profit once it recovered. Boeing does move a little more slowly than Tesla though!

And to your first comment... woah. WOAH. Why are you specifically worried about fires? (countless people have said there are thousands of car fires every day) Aren't you more worried about deaths in a Tesla car? There have been zero deaths and to my (limited) knowledge no serious injuries from people driving Tesla cars and getting into crashes - either their own fault or someone else's. (and it's interesting to note that there haven't been any crashes caused by a fault in the car) Both fires saw the driver calmly get out of the driver's door, the cabin compartment looking relatively unchanged, and both drivers want another Model S.

As for the stock, well, I'm happy to report that I sold it all at $184 a couple of weeks back and was able to buy back in at $157 today. Naturally I was perturbed when it kept on falling and hit $153 but since then it has recovered, and I'm ALL-IN and in the green again. Feels good.