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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
IMO some work should be done to avoid this. I would like to report this thread for reference to TMC Members in order to discuss this matter.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/23663-Preventing-battery-damage-from-road-debris
I was waiting for this.
Yesterday evening IBD Leaderboard sent TSLA to their "Cut List" after it was on their Leaderboard since the breakout above $110 probably about 4-5 months ago.
"After tumbling nearly 15% Wednesday, Tesla shed an additional 8% to a near three-month low in double its average trade. The stock breached support at the 150 level. Reports of a third Model S catching fire did not help Tesla. The stock is now 28% off a 52-week high. Despite its recent weakness, the stock is still up more than 300% for the year.
On Wednesday, Tesla gapped below its 50-day line huge turnover, triggering a sell signal. The stock may still go on to form a new base, but right now price action is not pretty."
My take is that IBD's move doesn't mean a whole lot because the stock is already down 30% from it's all-time highs. It just confirms that Tesla's chart and technicals are broken. Some might view it is in a downtrend, but I look at it as a major correction since it's long-term fundamentals are still in tact.
Yesterday evening IBD Leaderboard sent TSLA to their "Cut List" after it was on their Leaderboard since the breakout above $110 probably about 4-5 months ago.
"After tumbling nearly 15% Wednesday, Tesla shed an additional 8% to a near three-month low in double its average trade. The stock breached support at the 150 level. Reports of a third Model S catching fire did not help Tesla. The stock is now 28% off a 52-week high. Despite its recent weakness, the stock is still up more than 300% for the year.
On Wednesday, Tesla gapped below its 50-day line huge turnover, triggering a sell signal. The stock may still go on to form a new base, but right now price action is not pretty."
My take is that IBD's move doesn't mean a whole lot because the stock is already down 30% from it's all-time highs. It just confirms that Tesla's chart and technicals are broken. Some might view it is in a downtrend, but I look at it as a major correction since it's long-term fundamentals are still in tact.
really? you can't lose money and have a positive cash flow? PMSL
i guess you are not familiar with accounting magics
0.12$ profit is like the rest of wall street which is a lie on a non gaap basis.
tesla lost 0.32$(if i remember correctly)
wrong, analysts expected more than 5500 and some of them even greater than 6000
just mentioning twitter i can say "i rest my case" that's the mother of all bubbles.
no wonder they already lost 8%(in a day and a half) and there's a lot more to come.
i dare you to buy TWTR and still get a sleep at night
i can only say that i respect your opinion!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements
As a general rule, I strongly advise people NOT to invest in a very high-risk stock like TSLA if they are financially in a position where "every buck counts".
For most of us who are in the workforce, I think it's necessary to have a cash cushion, and a core of Index mutual funds in retirement accounts before even considering individual stocks.
I will continue to advise buying TSLA for those who are aware of the risks and can afford the risk. Those who need every last dollar should stay away.
As a general rule, I strongly advise people NOT to invest in a very high-risk stock like TSLA if they are financially in a position where "every buck counts".
For most of us who are in the workforce, I think it's necessary to have a cash cushion, and a core of Index mutual funds in retirement accounts before even considering individual stocks.
I will continue to advise buying TSLA for those who are aware of the risks and can afford the risk. Those who need every last dollar should stay away.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The company lost money, but I read the Q3 report and they spent money on expansion and R&D in excess of what they lost.
This is NORMAL for a growth company. Sure, Tesla could sit on its laurels and post profit on Model S alone, but that's not looking at a long term plan.
It has been a bloodbath the last few days, when exuberation and unrealistic expectation shattered into despair.
Back then I questions whether this forum is part driving up the frenzy of TSLA stock:
Today I think it is quite apparent, if nobody has yet to point out, that this forum is part of the engine driving the unrealistic Q3 expectation. This has been mocked in quite a few media press. They refer "Internet blog" for cranking out the Q3 numbers.
In my view, the single biggest reason why TSLA suffered such a fate is because it simply goes up too fast! Nothing else. And then there are more newcomers wanting it to keep going up, cheering for it.
In those noise and frothy cheering leading, even myself left my guard down and not doing the best I've been preaching: Structure, hedge and discipline!
I say these because I consider many people here as friends, been together for better or worse. Let' keep our common sense, and do not project a degree of certainty when you speculate on something. There are far too many cases speculation as being rendered as facts, which is harmful to everyone.
Back then I questions whether this forum is part driving up the frenzy of TSLA stock:
Today I think it is quite apparent, if nobody has yet to point out, that this forum is part of the engine driving the unrealistic Q3 expectation. This has been mocked in quite a few media press. They refer "Internet blog" for cranking out the Q3 numbers.
In my view, the single biggest reason why TSLA suffered such a fate is because it simply goes up too fast! Nothing else. And then there are more newcomers wanting it to keep going up, cheering for it.
In those noise and frothy cheering leading, even myself left my guard down and not doing the best I've been preaching: Structure, hedge and discipline!
I say these because I consider many people here as friends, been together for better or worse. Let' keep our common sense, and do not project a degree of certainty when you speculate on something. There are far too many cases speculation as being rendered as facts, which is harmful to everyone.
i agree that you have to spend in order to gain and it's normal and fine but it's still won't change the bottom line which is that tesla is still losing money
BTW leave tesla aside, you never know if the R&D invesment is real or not.
some companies cooking their books.
in tesla case it can be that margin on car is not as they say so. they can throw the difference(the real and desire one) just to get the number they want into R&D section(not me and not you can know that for sure)
tesla example is hypothetical!
Let's remember that we closed today higher than opening, and only -1.3% compared to yesterday. I agree that the sky-high expectations for Q3 ER were unrealistic and the third fire was met with overreaction. Media needs to focus on the fact that Tesla not just MET but BEAT street estimates. That is a POSITIVE thing, yet it is being spun in a negative light. Thankfully, at least Deutsche Bank is standing by their PT with some common sense and rational thinking:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-still-heading-to-200/
I disagree, however, with people on here hoping for a continued drop in share price just to buy in again. If you are truly long (past Gen III release), pretty much any price in the past 3 months is good for you. Keep in mind there are some people on this board who got in much later and losing right now, but I'm very long and holding until past Gen III takes over the market.
http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/11/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-still-heading-to-200/
I disagree, however, with people on here hoping for a continued drop in share price just to buy in again. If you are truly long (past Gen III release), pretty much any price in the past 3 months is good for you. Keep in mind there are some people on this board who got in much later and losing right now, but I'm very long and holding until past Gen III takes over the market.
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Yep, I just remembered that 4 months ago we closed at about $130 on July 12th, when TESLIVE weekend started. People were quite exuberant at the stock price.
Now 4 months later we're back at almost the same price.
During times of unbridled enthusiasm people tend to focus on the potential and forget about the risks.
During times of depression people tend to focus on the risks and forget about the potential.
Ironically, if the company is truly a stellar company the unbridled enthusiasm (albeit as dangerous as it is) is usually closer to the truth/reality than depression. With a stellar company, the unbridled enthusiasm will come back at some point and we'll break through new ATHs. It's the timing that's the difficult part, and sometimes the periods of depression can be much shorter than expected or much longer than expected.
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I think most investors need to do at least two things:
a) Have an entry and exit strategy BEFORE investing in a stock
b) Separate emotions from a stock and use rational thinking to make decisions
Thanks for for the perspective and the reminder, those were indeed euphoric days, and they were just this summer. It did a great job holding the low 130s on huge volume. Seems like the bottom.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This would be a problem if Tesla was cash flow negative and had low liquidity, because it would impede their immediate operations. However, the company has roughly 800M in cash and equivalents, and was cash flow positive last quarter.
Again, Tesla would be making money if they weren't spending on new vehicle development (Model X and Model E) and infrastructure.
Which is better: to make money now and not expand, or to lose a bit now in exchange for a massive payoff by bringing high volume vehicles to market? The company has a long term goal, and the short term sacrifices are (1) necessary to achieve the goal of a mass market BEV and (2) not going to threaten the existence of the company or disrupt operations. I hope this makes it clear why short term losses are not a problem.
I've expanded my thoughts on exuberance and depression into a longer post here:
On Exuberance and Depression
On Exuberance and Depression
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Dave, what is your expectation on premium for the Jan '16 LEAPs on Monday, and do you expect the premium to go up or down? One would think when they get introduced there will be pent-up demand driving the price up?
(I don't have any idea with how these get priced.)
Also, does it make any difference in premium how far they are OTM? For example, will the 190 premium be higher, lower, or about the same as the 170 calls?
Premiums on options are based on 'intrinsic value' and 'time value'. Intrinsic value is based on how far your call option strike price is either 'in or out of the money'. The time value is influenced by several things but is basically what you are willing to pay over the intrinsic value to hold the options.
So premium of the call 190 LEAPS will be less than the 170s as they are farther from the current stock value.
Not an expert here so anyone is welcome to add/correct.
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Intrinsic value is how far your option is in the money, and extrinsic value is how far your option is out of the money. When the price is 139, and the option is for a 140 strike, it's 100% extrinsic value.
The premium on an option is a vague term. Price is determined by volatility, distance from "the money", and time. This seems like it should be listed in the "basic options" thread, but yes, as you get farther from being in the money, the price of the option is smaller.
Just another lurker coming out of the shadows. I've been long on Tesla since $34, but the recent slide has me deep in the red. This just came out and I didn't see it here yet:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/po...officers-tsla-2013-11-08?reflink=MW_news_stmp
Unfortunately, this and the possibility of an investigation into the battery fire may erase any gains Monday. The hurt keeps on coming. I believe we'll shoot right back up as fast as we fell, but that may come later rather than sooner.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/po...officers-tsla-2013-11-08?reflink=MW_news_stmp
Unfortunately, this and the possibility of an investigation into the battery fire may erase any gains Monday. The hurt keeps on coming. I believe we'll shoot right back up as fast as we fell, but that may come later rather than sooner.
its been known for some time. Curt pointed it out to us a few weeks ago.
See this thread for other chat - A Class Action Lawsuit AGAINST
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