I'm going to guess that we close at or above $135 today. There is like about 7K of open interest with the put options at $135. Good thing I got out of the put options this morning with some change in my pocket. I can't see it going lower unless there's further bad news, like NHTSA opening an investigation. It seems that it would be nice if TSLA move up towards $140 to make more put options worthless, but it's just getting stuck around $136. I'm hesitant to jump in buying a $135 call that ends today as a lottery ticket because TSLA can't move beyond the $136.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Norse
Active Member
Analyst from Northland Capital on CNBC saying there is a car fire in the US every 2 minutes. He is also saying an EV is safer then ICE.
After doing my own analysis, I think the low 100s or even below that is improbable but not impossible at the moment. I think the low 120s will be the lowest TSLA is go. I think the only way TSLA will sink to the low 100s or lower is if the downtrend plays out well into next year or if extremely bad news is released about Tesla.
I think the bulls need to wait until next week to see what happens. A lot of calls for Nov. 16 are going to get wiped out. Wow, just sank past $134. Looks like it won't hold as much and going to sink further. I guess playing the options wipe out might not be in the cards.
PokerBroker
Member
I hesitated to jump on my first TSLA position at $135 in early august and have been kicking myself for the past three months... I was happy to see it come back down and jumped today at $135.50 with a modest position. I missed the boat on the massive run-up but as an owner I'm just happy to have some skin in the game.
Gtoffo
Member
Consider the stock has dropped from around 180$ to 130$ in two days.....a lot of people will be looking at this just waiting for the first signs of recovery. Short term buyers will then pile in.
correct and that's something to remember that any recovery will be short lived as the mid term is bearish
The 130s is an excellent time to be buying stock and keep it long-term. It could drop below 130 but I see the chances as fairly low. $133 resistance is very strong (even dating back to pre-Q2).
I've been very cautious in building my long-term core position (buying stock in the 30s, LEAPs when the stock was in the low 70s, LEAPs when stock was in the low 90s, and LEAPs when the stock was $108 at Goldman). Today was my fourth major LEAP purchase for my long-term core position with the stock in the low 130s. (Note: all my other purchases have been short-term speculative plays) I don't think people realize how low the low 130s is.
We have a 30% drop from the all-time high. Believe it or not but the way I see it is now (below $135) is the safest time to buy TSLA stock since the Goldman dip to $105. People like buying when it's going up and following the crowd, but that actually poses more risk especially if you don't have tight stops. But for the long-term buy and holder investor, if you can pick up shares when a stellar company has experienced a minor bump in the road and investor mood has soured for the moment and the charts are broken and people are talking gloom and doom... then you're taking the least risk. But you've got to know and confirm it's a stellar company and the long-term fundamentals are in tact.
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I hate to say it, but I don't think you know what you're talking about there being no buyers or deep pockets buying now. Smart buyers (including deep pockets) will buy a stellar company at a discount when sentiment has turned against it. Tesla is in sale and smart buyers are on notice. Don't think we'll be down in the low 130s for long. Sure we could go lower than 130, but I don't see the chances as that high.
so i have no clue cause you said so right?
company at a discount? company who loses money, selling barely 5500 cars, have a value of 1/3 of GM with lots of constraints on the way and just had 500% rise less than a year? i wonder what is expensive by your standards.
it's easy for you to say it's a good price to get in cause what the hell you're in from the low double figure, so if we go another 50$ below you still have a profit.
with all respect and love to the company, people have lost their sanity here.
Gtoffo
Member
Wow redharel.....that's quite a shift in sentiment you had considering you were long until yesterday if I'm not mistaken.....what made you change you mind so abruptly?
Thanks for the info, are you still following your strategy of buying slightly OTM calls for the LEAPS?
Good to know that I'm smart. I'm back in at the $136 mark. Saving half cash just in case.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements
I bought Jan 2015 180s and 190s. I like to be fairly conservative with my long-term holdings. Plus I've got a lot of ITM Jan 2015s from a while ago so I like to diversify a bit.
I was planning on waiting until 2016 LEAPs to come out on Monday to start buying (and converting stock held over a year). But the low 130s were/are too tempting so I started buying because I see the possibility of today being the bottom and on Monday being in the 140s. But I really do hope we trade in the 130s on Monday again so I can buy 2016 LEAPs. I'm just not counting on it. If it goes to the 140s I'll probably buy some 2016s but not as much as I would have if the stock was trading in the 130s.
Note: I also made some speculative short term plays as well with the stock under 135 but with less money (Dec and March OTM calls).
I bought Jan 2015 180s and 190s. I like to be fairly conservative with my long-term holdings. Plus I've got a lot of ITM Jan 2015s from a while ago so I like to diversify a bit.
I was planning on waiting until 2016 LEAPs to come out on Monday to start buying (and converting stock held over a year). But the low 130s were/are too tempting so I started buying because I see the possibility of today being the bottom and on Monday being in the 140s. But I really do hope we trade in the 130s on Monday again so I can buy 2016 LEAPs. I'm just not counting on it. If it goes to the 140s I'll probably buy some 2016s but not as much as I would have if the stock was trading in the 130s.
Note: I also made some speculative short term plays as well with the stock under 135 but with less money (Dec and March OTM calls).
i'm not changing my mind at all, i still think tesla is a great company with bright future but i can't stand that every hour someone is shouting buying opportunity, buy buy buy.
from 180 all the way to 130 we had someone who say buying opportunity, and guess waht? people here lost lot's of money.
most of us are not 500% profit on tesla and every buck counts a lot to people here.
btw as far as i remember that's a short term price movement subject and nobody can argue that short term tesla is not on flame(double meaning)
Gtoffo
Member
Well it depends.....I bought some options (tiny amount) on a whim 1h and a half ago....they expire tonight but are doing pretty well right now.... doesn't get more short term than that....
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