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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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But where are your sub $50 buy and hold shares?!
I bought my first TSLA in the $50s, but I never invested in TSLA early (even though I liked it a lot) because I was certain that SPWR offered a lot better risk/reward (mainly reward) opportunity than TSLA. I had virtually 100% of my funds in SPWR in the first half of 2013 and I was right to do so:
Tesla Motors, Inc. Stock Chart | TSLA Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance
SPWR is up ~550% over the past year, while TSLA is up "only" ~260%. I got into TSLA a lot more in the low $100s, because by then SPWR already got a little less undervalued and TSLA still offered a lot of potential. When I say buy and hold I don't always mean to hold for ever. I buy and hold, but sell after a huge gain and shift money to a laggard. I then hold the laggard until my investment thesis proves correct.
I held on to CSIQ after it went from $16 to $11, and then all the way up to $30+. I only now sold a little CSIQ to play some of the laggards (JASO and SOL) and wait for one of those scenarios to play out. I will hold on to these until proven correct and sell only at a profit; that is what I mean when I say buy and hold. Plus CSIQ became a huge portion of my portfolio so I needed to diversify a little. If TSLA were to go to $150 next week, then it will become too big a portion of my portfolio and I would have to start hedging to free cash for other laggard opportunities.
But when I buy, I hold on the way down and expand my position to DCA for cheaper. If nothing changes in my investment thesis then I will buy more when it gets cheaper. Then when I make a big enough return only do I consider selling.
When I say buy and hold, I do not have a predetermined time frame for holding (but be prepared to hold long-term until proven correct). The sad thing is if I kept 100% of my money in SPWR I would have been better off financially than doing the thousands of trades. But I have no regrets, because trading is a ton of fun, and making money is only half of the equation; you have to have fun doing it too. Plus I learned a lot from the trades I made and it will make me a better trader in the future. Trading is an art, and the more you do it, the better you become.
Buy and hold always wins!
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yeah the Euphoria was too much. I did my part too and prevented a total newbie in option from throwing his whole retirement savings at TSLA options at the height of $190. Forgot his name, but 1 good deed a day is enough for me.
But where are your sub $50 buy and hold shares?!
I got into TSLA at this level too. My thesis is buy something that will have a good risk/reward to at least double your investment (or more) within one year, but at least double. I don't see TSLA shooting to $200 anytime soon like TSLAopt suggests, but with the German blessing I think we now have a good catalyst to go to the $140s. I'd like to see a slow and steady increase over time with TSLA.
Every time I believe reason and common sense will prevail, I realize we're on "Tesla Time". While I completely agree with the idea that the TMC became far too euphoric, I am left with the irrational skeptism of the shorts. What is the current short percentage?
I am just mentioning, a series of positive catalysts may well spark a "short squeeze". I am not saying I believe that will happen, only that I wouldn't be surprised.
Thanks for that Convert. Good philosophy and I agree I'm much more comfortable with a nice even pace earned rise in the stock over time. In my view that might be a doubling plus from here over 2 years, say $300 or so in that time. Also aligned with sleepy buy and hold strategy, at least hold for a medium term profile. (OT I'm in that same camp for top Solar stocks as well, strong growth and earned valuations over many months to years). That's my favorite investment
Percentage of shorts has increased a lot in the past month or so. As of Nov 12th it increased to 25mm shares from about 21mm shares just two weeks prior. We will get the official Nasdaq short interest report a week from tomorrow as of end of trading on Monday Nov 25th. I suspect it could show closer to 28-30mm shares short on that report which is closer to the all time highs back in March when it was at 32mm shares short just before the first major short squeeze.
Not sure how many of us are actual Model S owners but I am which is a major reason why I'm a die hard long term TSLA investor now. While Tesla delivers 500+ cars per week remember that as a result another couple hundred more die-hard long term TSLA investors are born each week, many of whom are pretty wealthy people.
sub
Active Member
I really hope I'm wrong, but I don't see this German news doing much for tsla tomorrow. I'm thinking we bounce off $130 and finish around where we were at close today. I'm holding shares so I do really want to be wrong here.
I felt there was too much optimism surrounding Q3 ER, I posted at the time that the cat was out of the bag and I didn't see a repeat of previous qtrs. I had planned to hedge and got a bit greedy and took a hit but not too bad. I let my hope of buying my model S if tsla hit 190 alter my plan, which was to sell calls and buy puts before close on Q3 earnings day. No model S yet!
I sleep much Better now not being all in with available cash, trimmed my position 75% and now I mostly ignore the daily swings.
edit - typos (iPhone!!!)
I felt there was too much optimism surrounding Q3 ER, I posted at the time that the cat was out of the bag and I didn't see a repeat of previous qtrs. I had planned to hedge and got a bit greedy and took a hit but not too bad. I let my hope of buying my model S if tsla hit 190 alter my plan, which was to sell calls and buy puts before close on Q3 earnings day. No model S yet!
I sleep much Better now not being all in with available cash, trimmed my position 75% and now I mostly ignore the daily swings.
edit - typos (iPhone!!!)
I was thinking about it and tomorrow has to be an up day for TSLA. I mean we got positive catalyst after positive catalyst and that stock keeps going down. Now with DB's and Germany's blessing there has to be some positive momentum for TSLA in the short-run. If not now then there is nothing that can bring this stock back up until/if NHTSA gives a clean bill. I think they will, but the market might wait for that day before buying back in.
Tomorrow should be a great day for TSLA.
Tomorrow should be a great day for TSLA.
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Agreed.
Here's another potential catalyst. Morgan Stanley just sent out an email alert with the title Buying Opportunity: Making TSLA our Top Pick.
They believe the stock went from 20% overvalued to 20% undervalued in just two months. "Investors who resisted buying into the momentum peak have a new chance to own a good and well managed company with proof of concept and exceptional top-line optionality."
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Yeah correct valuation is ~$140 ish. Elon isn't lying when he said it is fairly valued. We will see spike up to gap fill that ~$150 ish gap.
German is a percursor to NHSTA ruling. So eventually, NHSTA will come to the same conclusion, but 80% of the people will wait for NHSTA. Which means that the fire events should be a non issue and it was the disappointment in production numbers that should be factored in. I'd say $175 is a fair value for a dissapointing Q3. Now Q4. Ah well, I won't talk about speculation in case the forum turns into that bubbly time again.
The NHTSA will not simply do what the Germans did. The NHTSA needs to ensure compliance to US safety regulations and requirements (which are some of the most conservative in the world) and it also has a big ego, similar to the FAA and the FAA does not simply follow the JAA (European equivalent). The NHTSA will consider US driving environments, hazards, and conditions in their decision making process- which can be materially different from that of Germany. But all in all a positive development for European sales to start with at the least. I think the market will next await the official NHTSA statement, after which any credible information on short to medium term sales impact from the 3rd fire.
Disappointing Q3? I can't think of a single way in which the Q3 report was disappointing to me, except what happened to the stock afterwards. Everything about it was fantastic. Revenue up, cash flow while expanding the business, beat EPS, beat deliveries...even increased guidance which I wasn't expecting at all (was just expecting an eventual FY guidance blowout).
I remain convinced that the drop was just a self-fulfilling prophecy - bots which were programmed to scan the report for number of deliveries, expecting 7,000 which nobody serious expected would happen (Tesla guided 5100 I think, analysts said 5200-5300), sold the stock immediately when they noticed the number was lower, and then everyone else said "oh, I guess the report was bad." Every article I read about the report blamed it on something else, because nobody could find an actual single good reason for the drop. One report said it was because of the gaap thing, which is nonsense. One said it was because of increased R&D spending next quarter, which is nonsense. One said it was because they lowered guidance, which is nonsense which didn't even happen.
It was a fantastic report, this dip is wholly unwarranted, and it's a great buying opportunity. The only nice thing about it is it sets us up for a more reasonable Q4, as maybe people will think sales are down or something because of all the negative coverage and will be surprised by Q4 and want to get in when the media decides to drop their negative narrative...a la NFLX.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
The market does not care what you and I think and gives people exactly what they wanted out of the market. For some it is money, for others it is to be proven right and for most, just an audience.
Krugerrand
Meow
Okay, but like Fango said, it was not a 'disappointing' Q3 report when viewed with logic.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I just want to point out that the letter that was address to Tesla Motors from the German Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt is dated on the 27 of November, the same day that we saw the first considerable upward movement for weeks. This is several days before it became public knowledge so clearly some big players found out in advance and perhaps closed their short positions. I'm not trying to make a conspiracy theory out of it but just want to point out that there are big sharks out there
Disclaimer: This theory is of course invalid if there was indeed some other positive news on the 27th that made the stock go up drastically.
Disclaimer: This theory is of course invalid if there was indeed some other positive news on the 27th that made the stock go up drastically.
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