Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[jeffro01]

So what's the excuse today? The stock is dropping pretty hard again today yet the market is doing overall "ok"....

Jeff

 

[sleepyhead]

The marke is not doing "ok" and Tesla is a high beta stock. Not tanking too much as of right now compared to the market. This is normal.

 

[twinklejet]

NASDAQ was originally dragged down by Oracle... now I just don't know...

 

[Todd Burch]

Seems like sales/profit numbers are the only thing that is going to appreciably move this stock for awhile.

 

[nygiants242]

This stock has no real catalyst left, aside from potentially earnings being a surprise to the upside. Clearly, the battery swap was already baked in and hopes for something beyond, a real big WOW factor, were just way too ambitious. I personally see the stock retracting a fair bit.. even into the low 80s.

 

[Curt Renz]

So what's the excuse today? The stock is dropping pretty hard again today yet the market is doing overall "ok"....

It's Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of the largest options and futures contracts. There can be a great deal of manipulation by monied operators hoping to have stocks close today at prices beneficial to their options accounts.

- - - Updated - - -

This stock has no real catalyst left, aside from potentially earnings being a surprise to the upside.

Next week comes quarterly window dressing by money managers. That's the tendency for them to add the quarter's winning stocks to their portfolios, so when a snapshot is taken after the close on June 30th they appear to have been smart all quarter long. It may seem silly, but they keep doing it so it must work. What money managers would like to be seen by their clients as not holding TSLA or short it?

 

[nygiants242]

It's Triple Witching Day, the quarterly expiration of the largest options and futures contracts. There can be a great deal of manipulation by monied operators hoping to have stocks close today at prices beneficial to their options accounts.

- - - Updated - - -



Next week comes quarterly window dressing by money managers. That's the tendency for them to add the quarter's winning stocks to their portfolios, so when a snapshot is taken after the close on June 30th they appear to have been smart all quarter long. It may seem silly, but they keep doing it so it must work. What money managers would like to be seen by their clients as not holding TSLA or short it?

How do they appear smart if it makes no improvement to their bottom line return? Investors can't be THAT dumb. So on June 30th, I'll say "Wow, look my guy owns 30% in Tesla yet my portfolio is down" - makes no sense whatsoever. That being said, even if this phenomena is true - which it may, I just think it is BS - this is not exactly a "catalyst" and not built on fundamentals, only further pumping up the price of a stock which is just (to me) trading a bit too high right now.

Tesla has all the potential in the world. Too much is being baked in right now though. I get that they can eventually produce 500K, with Gen III, and kill it. But that is far off. There is just too much baked in at this point. The good news is, Tesla just needs to EXECUTE to make it happen. The blueprint is set.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Next week comes quarterly window dressing by money managers. That's the tendency for them to add the quarter's winning stocks to their portfolios, so when a snapshot is taken after the close on June 30th they appear to have been smart all quarter long. It may seem silly, but they keep doing it so it must work. What money managers would like to be seen by their clients as not holding TSLA or short it?

Would they try to drive down the price so that they can buy cheap draperies next week?
Or would they try to buy some nice ones "On Sale" today?

 

[ShortSlaver]

NY trying to ram a bill that makes Tesla unable to sell their cars direct is probably having some effect.

 

[deonb]

NY trying to ram a bill that makes Tesla unable to sell their cars direct is probably having some effect.

Yes, it made the price go up $1 after the tweet.

Now if only Elon can also announce another recall and secondary today...

 

[ShortSlaver]

Yes, it made the price go up $1 after the tweet.

Now if only Elon can also announce another recall and secondary today...

There has got to be plenty of algorithms that buy when a tweet comes out regardless of context.

 

[ppl]

Seems like sales/profit numbers are the only thing that is going to appreciably move this stock for awhile.

I agree. The short squeeze took it to higher than sustainable level. I agree new services etc wont raise price. Waiting margin which I suspect is most important number this time. Could run up as qtr closes anticipating early clues/tweets

 

[Curt Renz]

How do they appear smart if it makes no improvement to their bottom line return? Investors can't be THAT dumb. So on June 30th, I'll say "Wow, look my guy owns 30% in Tesla yet my portfolio is down" - makes no sense whatsoever. That being said, even if this phenomena is true - which it may, I just think it is BS - this is not exactly a "catalyst" and not built on fundamentals, only further pumping up the price of a stock which is just (to me) trading a bit too high right now.

As I wrote, "It may seem silly, but they keep doing it so it must work."

The corollary relates to those money managers who earlier bought what turned out to be the quarter's big winning stocks, and do not want to remove them from their portfolios before they appear in their end of quarter holdings statements.

 

[Norse]

Some big volume in the end there:
16:00:05 $ 98.90 1,754,688
16:00:04 $ 98.90 395,004
16:00:04 $ 98.90 600,000
16:00:04 $ 98.90 600,000

Read more:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/time-sales#ixzz2Wt9AVqab

 

[deonb]

Some big volume in the end there:
16:00:05 $ 98.90 1,754,688
16:00:04 $ 98.90 395,004
16:00:04 $ 98.90 600,000
16:00:04 $ 98.90 600,000

Read more:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/tsla/time-sales#ixzz2Wt9AVqab

Any way to know if those are buy orders or sell orders?

 

[touda78]

Any way to know if those are buy orders or sell orders?

wondering too

 

[maekuz]

Any way to know if those are buy orders or sell orders?

This chart shows them as buys Investors Hub - Charts

 

[Norse]

well then someone got 3% in a minute, Wonder who.

 

[Curt Renz]

Any way to know if those are buy orders or sell orders?

There can't be a buyer without a seller. In today's case of a major quarterly expiration of options, those trades reported immediately after the close were likely the exercising of put and call options. So the better question may have been were those more related to puts or calls.

 

[TXjak]

As I wrote, "It may seem silly, but they keep doing it so it must work."

The corollary relates to those money managers who earlier bought what turned out to be the quarter's big winning stocks, and do not want to remove them from their portfolios before they appear in their end of quarter holdings statements.

So it sounds like there is a window where they buy by the end of the quarter (the ones who want to look good for having it) and then sell as soon as the statements come out? How big of a window is that?