Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[AudubonB]

All Tesla has to do is unveil the Tesla Truck with 400 mile range, 4 wheel drive, and customer option swap out rear boxes (regular bed, dump, camper, ??) and it will decimate the most popular and profitable segment of the American auto industry.

The only "ouch" for me there is that I figger I would have only 2.47 nanoseconds in which to sell off my F-350 in order to make room for that dream of yours, until the used car price of that Ford drops to negative numbers.....

I'd have to buy two! or three!

PS: the answer to your "??" is flatbed

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

Certainly many on this thread are betting on wildly inaccurate.

The biggest problem with Autodata comparison is that Autodata only estimates U.S. numbers (ignoring Canadian, and eventually European sales). On that basis, they weren't that terribly far off of Tesla's results for April/May.

The problem is that we have no clue what their methodology is, and its possible that they were essentially just guessing based on published production rates of ~400/week and then discounting likely Canadian sales. Once you factor likely Canadian sales Autodata's numbers don't look bad at all if you project April/May results into June and end up with a total of ~4700-4800 total sales. I think that the evidence points to a production increase in June that resulted in 5000-5200 sales, but that evidence isn't crazy good.

Of course this hasn't kept the media from comparing apples (U.S. sales) to oranges (total sales) and claiming that there was some kind of major sales decrease. Anyone who is betting on earnings based on ~4200 sales is going to lose their shirts.

 

[dmunjal]

All Tesla has to do is unveil the Tesla Truck with 400 mile range, 4 wheel drive, and customer option swap out rear boxes (regular bed, dump, camper, ??) and it will decimate the most popular and profitable segment of the American auto industry. There are many arguments to support the development of a truck over the model X as well as the Gen 3 and trucks could easily prove to be the most profitable segment.

Maybe Elon has the truck in development right now and just as the stock price shows any lag, he will unveil it. If he does, and the price is in the $70-$80k range, the stock price will pass $300 before the end of the first trading day after the "bomb" is dropped.

What do you guys think about the natural gas F-150?

Ford will offer natural gas version of popular F-150 pickup truck - latimes.com

 

[AudubonB]

Well, I think we're veering off the topic of short-term TSLA prices, but until these posts get moved, here goes:

I have on hand one of the finest ICEs FoMoCo ever produced - their 300cid straight six. Industrial version - I ran it for my 45kW generator. AND I converted it from a gasoline to a propane combustion.

It worked sorta kinda okay, but it is no match for our temperature extremes. Even though I was injecting liquid, as opposed to gasified propane, I still could not overcome the peculiarities of getting that fuel to the far cylinders. It is/was, mark you, a carbureted engine. Modern ones, including this new product from Ford, are fuel injected and that circumvents many of the frustrations that stopped me.

Would I buy such an F-150? Sure...if I lived in Utah or southern California or in other locations that have an established fuel station network. A pickup truck can better find room for the larger tank CNG/propane needs than can a small sedan.

 

[twinklejet]

It is market close (and after after hours) afterall. So I think this discourse is great discussion. 1.5 hours to pre-market!

 

[blakegallagher]

currently up 1.40 pre-market .... at this rate I will have to sell some of my short term options before earnings.

 

[twinklejet]

currently up 1.40 pre-market .... at this rate I will have to sell some of my short term options before earnings.

And a sudden batch of 8000 shares at 9:09 at 134.28.. bringing us back to ytd's close.. I wonder... possibly gonna jump higher to an ATH today from the opening bell?

 

[deonb]

And a sudden batch of 8000 shares at 9:09 at 134.28.. bringing us back to ytd's close.. I wonder... possibly gonna jump higher to an ATH today from the opening bell?

Probably registration of a prior agreed upon sale.


I see that we just got some shiny new August 9th weekly options in. But they only go up to $170. Arrgh!

I'm bidding 15c on open on those. Let's see. (Doubt it).

 

[twinklejet]

Dropped quickly on the open..

 

[Norbert]

Dropped quickly on the open..

Seems several other stocks had a quick drop as well, and are now going up again.

 

[Johan]

Dull day, low volume, stock just kind of trades sideways... Is this how it's going to be now until after Aug 7th? Have all bets been placed?

 

[Clprenz]

I want another drop, so not all bets have been placed... maybe 133>

 

[uselesslogin]

I see that we just got some shiny new August 9th weekly options in. But they only go up to $170. Arrgh!
I'm bidding 15c on open on those. Let's see. (Doubt it).

So what am I doing wrong that I only see 8/2 and 8/17 in my account?

 

[twinklejet]

I'm falling asleep staring at today's movement...

 

[uselesslogin]

So what am I doing wrong that I only see 8/2 and 8/17 in my account?

Hmm, one account has them the other doesn't. Obviously I'm no options expert. They are nowhere near 15c but I can't say I'm surprised.

Anyway for fun I decided to recreate what happened in May by percentage gains/losses but using yesterday's close as a starting point instead of the close on May 1. If the lead-up is the same percentage-wise that means Monday's close would be $150 and it would drop back down to $140 next Tuesday. Then, if the earnings are equally as surprising to the street you will see the stock close at $175 on Thursday and $190 on Friday. And it will exceed $200 the week of 8/12. Now, of course, one would expect strong earnings would not take the street by as much surprise as it did last time but I just saw one article claiming 29% of float is short so it isn't like the whole world believes in Tesla now.

 

[johnnydop]

So what am I doing wrong that I only see 8/2 and 8/17 in my account?

What broker you using, perhaps they havent pushed them out yet. Have you logged out and logged back in?

 

[FreeOfPge]

LOL

It's a California compliance car, pure and simple. These guys are not even trying.

Man, I can not wait until Genlll comes out and the sale numbers go through the roof. They'll all say "we never anticipated this much demand for EVs. We weren't able to sell many (insert name of half assed, semi-electric vehicle). Why are people buying Teslas?"

I agree with you 100 percent. I just hope they are able to anticipate and ramp up gen III production a little more smoothly then happened for MS.

 

[FredTMC]

Approaching HOD. Great run-up to earnings call.

 

[Johan]

Approaching HOD. Great run-up to earnings call.

Very nice. But oh so little volume, could fall like a house of cards.

 

[FredTMC]

Very nice. But oh so little volume, could fall like a house of cards.

Yep. I've learned to live with the volatility. I expect it. I'm very long term and I use the dips as buying opportunity. That being said, the GS PT was not fun. Anything above 120 going into earnings call is fine with me.