I don't know what percentage of those people are from the Seattle area, but I think Seattle is rather unique in the fact that the commutes aren't that far of a distance, and you can charge almost anywhere you go to shop. It's a very EV friendly city.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I don't know what percentage of those people are from the Seattle area, but I think Seattle is rather unique in the fact that the commutes aren't that far of a distance, and you can charge almost anywhere you go to shop. It's a very EV friendly city.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Next earnings. I wish all of you can refrain from shouting out a price target. Be mindful that a lot of investors are checking this forum and over extending hype is not good for the stock. What we want is a slow steady increase. It keeps everyone happy. Also, please stay away from mentioning one thousand.. I don't know how many time I've seen a stock plummet to death after people started shouting the fabled 4 digit number. Take a hard look at AAPL for example.
If investors were paying attention to us, the stock would have risen to the 150's before earnings and then had no reaction after earnings since posters here did their homework and predicted the report accurately.
kevin99
Member
This reads like the "onlooking investors" is counting on this board for a buy or sell signal. If they get carried away then it is the board to blame?
On the same note and on the record though, I was very concerned about the irrational expection by some posts. Hope I did prevent some people going for more risky bet. Short can lose money on TSLA. Being a TSLA long and lose money is a different story.
Was any news released at noon? Sunpower, Solar City, and Tesla Motors all began falling about noon, and their charts look identical for the rest of the day.
My guess is that First Solar falling caused Solar City to drop in the early morning. The stocks all recovered and went green by about 2 PM. At 2 PM people sold Tesla and Solar City to buy Apple.
My guess is that First Solar falling caused Solar City to drop in the early morning. The stocks all recovered and went green by about 2 PM. At 2 PM people sold Tesla and Solar City to buy Apple.
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I'm guessing profit-taking and pouring it into AAPL on the Icahn news.
No contentiousness intended, the purpose is to arrive at the ability to predict stock movements. Leaf is nice, but it is a financial failure on the scale of Nissan.
Early adoption is a positive feedback loop, exactly as we are seeing with Tesla whereby customers become advocates in a manner that is highly influential on additional sales and provides reassurance for the pragmatic mainstream to follow.
Innovators are willing to contribute an additional motive on top of value for money or convenience when buying something. We had early adopters for the Model S, those who were willing to support cause and company by waiting up to 3 years for a car. Now we have early adopters filling the media and word of mouth channels with praise for the vehicle, ownership and in many cases the service experience. This is the kind of thing that gives confidence to someone considering only value for money and convenience that buying a Model S is a sound move. Note that throughout this process there have been two price increases, $2500 on the base model and more recently additional costs for various options. This is good investable business.
The fact that one innovator can persuade another that the Leaf is a green car is not early adoption. In the end Leaf had to be discounted below cost in order for people to accept the value for money proposition on offer. This is a business failure, and it is predictable and consistent with the same model that predicts the observed outcome for Tesla to date, and that gives confidence in forward projection.
This is not a model that requires exceptions to the rules to arrive at an understanding.
No insult intended to any Leaf owner. Carlos Goshn is a very impressive leader. Nevertheless, his trying to manage an ICE / EV business is clearly described in the Innovator's Dilemma as the path to pain. It is not the path to failure, but it is going to hurt.
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Very good call IMO. However APPL will turn into a protracted mire.
hmmm...not so sure about this theory...What about the people selling AAPL to the people buying AAPL? What are they doing with their cash then?
Acmykguy
Member
Just confirmed my P85 pearl white model S, paid for from profits
CONGRATZ !!!! I would be willing to pay for a test drive next time my father is in town
I live in New Braunfels and have tried to get him a drive a few times. He was the long voice that was supporting me when I first started investing in Tesla and unless my resolve breaks down I am going to wait until gen 3 to buy my own Tesla.Thanks for bringing up the tech adoption curve. Last week I was actually thinking about where Tesla might be on that curve (also remembered Elon's references to the S adoption curve in conference calls), so I spent some time re-reading Crossing the Chasm (Geoffrey Moore). I was originally thinking that Tesla is in the early adopter phase, but after re-reading things I'm thinking Tesla is actually still in the "innovators" phase.
I'm looking at the bigger picture, namely that the eventual vast majority of new vehicles being sold will be EV. Elon mentioned he's made a bet with someone that the majority of new cars sold by 2030 will be electric. So, I'm using that to signal the 50% transition point (from early majority to late majority). From that I'm tracking backward to estimate 2022 as the beginning of the early majority (34% of total), and then tracking back to 2017 as the beginning of the early adopters (13.5%). Many of us think we might be further along than the "innovators" phase since Tesla's been around for a while with the Roadster and the Model S is the second generation vehicle. But we're still talking about miniscule numbers compared to the total # of vehicles sold every year (ie., 35mm+ vehicles sold in just China and U.S.). So, we're well within the first 2.5% of the eventual EV market (which should be as large as the current new ICE car market eventually).
The biggest challenges IMO will be scaling production for Gen III (ie., 2017-2022) and also NOT underestimating demand for the 2022-2029 period, which should be off the charts (2022-2029 Gen III demand could be an order of magnitude greater than 2017-2022 demand). The pace of adoption of EVs will be so fast (ie., growth trajectory) in the 2022-2029 period that I don't think there's really any way Tesla can meet all the demand (even Tesla producing 5mm+ vehicles/yr wouldn't be enough). They'll need other auto manufacturers to make compelling EVs as well.
By 2029, if 50% of new car and commercial vehicles sold in the world are electric, then that would be approximately 65 million EVs per year*.
*world car and commercial vehicles grew 54% from 1997 (54 million) to 2012 (84 million). If we assume another 54% growth from 2012 to 2029, then we'll have 130 million new cars & commercial vehicles sold in 2029. Automotive industry - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
I'm attaching a tech adoption S curve and bell curve with annotations. I'm looking at the chart as showing the overall market's transition from ICE to EV, and then annotating various points I think might be important to Tesla.
Update: Hmmm, looking at this chart is very interesting. I think I might hold TSLA until 2029 at least.
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Norse
Active Member
Don't sell Jeff. If you are new to the stock know that his is business as usual. I agree with others that have posted that we are consolidating for another run up. I have sunk all my short term profits into jan 2014 calls and although the retreat the last couple of days is annoying it is nothing to fret about it. If you are in it for the long term just hang on. The earnings call was very positive and Elon recently said that they will have more than half of 12 percent needed to reach 25 percent done in q3.
I also Disagree with Dave T's comment that there is no room for a big surprise in q3 and q4. It sounds like they are actively working on replacing suppliers or bringing more in house. Each weakest link that they iron out will boost their weekly production rate. They will not go from 500 to 800 in one fell swoop in q1 of 2014. I think we will exit q4 with a run rate above 30k a year and maybe even higher. It also seems like there is a chance that we are above 25 percent GM for q3/q4 due to ZEV credits. (even though they are not relying on them in guidance).
6 months ago I never would have thought the stock could be this high this fast and I would of figured it would be overvalued. But due to the crazy demand that there is (for the coolest car on the planet) and the limited amount of people that have seen them it is more apparent to me than ever that the stock is undervalued. (I might just be a crazy bull though)
He also said the thought that was conservative and said it would be more like 12 to 14 years from now (Khan U interview)
There is a lot of noise in the US about how the new coming-of-age drivers are just not interested in cars. This may be overshadowed by China, etc., but it may factor into growth projections.
Just to clarify, my previous comment was production constraints make it unlikely for Tesla to blowout revenue or units delivered in Q3/Q4 (could be better chances to surprise in other areas like GM or demand). Main reason being is because the shareholder letter noted for 2013 guidance that they're keeping 21k units because of those production constraints and also because cars will be on the ship to Europe/Asia as well. I'm just saying I don't think it's going to be easy for Tesla to blowout revenue or units delivered because that's what they're telling us (but of course there's always the possibility they exceed these expectations). (By blowout, I mean delivering 25k units in 2013.)
I think they could make better than expected progress on gross margin. I also think they can report better than expected demand in China/Asia but this likely wouldn't be reflected in blowout revenue because of production constraints. There's a number of other possible surprises I could think of as well, like introducing a 4x4 Model S or announcing a convertible Model S.
Overall though, even without blowout Q3/Q4 earnings, my expectations are for Tesla to trend up over the next few/several months for the basic reason that demand for TSLA shares will likely grow over time while supply of TSLA shares is constrained.
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