So, the open doesn't look too strong and it is TSLA Tuesday. Anyone think I'll be able to pick some up on sale below $140?
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Norse
Active Member
borat99
Member
Hopefully, TSLA Tuesday was yesterday. This morning the whole market is just taking a nosedive.
Remember, all these guys make money when people read their articles. Whats the best way to grab someones attention? Say the opposite of whats happening.
Citizen-T
Active Member
I love that seemingly overnight everyone has adopted "Never bet against Elon Musk." as just common sense.
I think we should concentrate on our daily business again now and that is the TESLA stock. The Hyperloop is a nice idea yeah but lets move on now. Musk is well advised if
he stays focused now because thats what Tesla seems all about: focus. I think he got that because he offered the hyperloop system as open source. Fine. Nice. Now let´s focus again, really.
he stays focused now because thats what Tesla seems all about: focus. I think he got that because he offered the hyperloop system as open source. Fine. Nice. Now let´s focus again, really.
Unless we have entered a new paradigm with TSLA, downward volatility will be followed by upward volatility. I'm hanging on to my September calls, and might even buy some more today.
NB the price is exactly where I have said it would be for months. http://www.liionica.com/Julian_Cox_Record_of_TSLA_Analysis.jpg
If on that basis you would be willing to hear me, this stock is undergoing a conversion from a pure story stock to a momentum stock. Some of the heavy risk takers and cashing in on their rewards and growth investment funds that invest only in businesses that are clear of startup risks are taking their place.
I would expect to see a relatively steady climb throughout the rest of the year. European ramp up, inroads in China and a massive production ramp for 2014 is in the pipeline. Some news of that will come on Q3 earnings.
ShortSlaver
Member
Yeah, I'm sort of thinking this too. I sold my SEP calls a few days ago, but am considering getting back in on them. I've also unloaded some stock over the last few days so my position is small right now. I'm waiting on some more downside but TSLA is holding up fairly well...
http://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/tesla-moves-to-upset-the-status-quo-again.html/
Apparently they think the upcoming "camera replacing mirror" is a new move...?
Of course this is already known information to everyone who bothers to read TMC etc...
Apparently they think the upcoming "camera replacing mirror" is a new move...?
Of course this is already known information to everyone who bothers to read TMC etc...
I think it's a good reminder that TSLA won't triple in the next 3 months like it did in the last 3 months. While I think these authors miss the long-term potential of a market disrupting company like Tesla, TSLA's short-term prospects are defined by institutional investors. If they get spooked, we could see a prolonged slump. Our investment strategies need to be aware of this possibility.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Mod Note: I carved out a separate thread for investor discussion of any Hyperloop impact on TSLA. (I pulled out >40 posts, but let me know if I missed any important ones)
In this video (http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000190178) this morning Cramer said something interesting...
"I think people want to back this man [Elon]. I think this man is loved. If you were in our position, you get 10 emails a day saying why Tesla should be a $4 stock. Ok, well memo to all those people who think it's a $4 stock: Go drive a Tesla. You're going to have to pry me out of one the next time. He [Elon] sent one for us to do a test drive. I don't regard myself as a great driver, but when I was behind the wheel I got to tell you... [I was a great driver...]"
Ok, so I think Cramer's probably exaggerating about the $4 stock price in the emails, but it's interesting to note that he's still receiving a ton of emails from TSLA shorts. This is what he's calling the "short TSLA" movement and it continues.
What Cramer is finally catching on to is the qualitative value of TSLA, meaning their product is so crazy good and that gives value to the company (and will support future growth). That's what the bear camp refuses to recognize. The bear camp is looking at TSLA through quantitive lenses, meaning their looking at valuation compared with other companies and current revenue/profit/etc. They don't believe the car is revolutionary (they think other manufacturers can make better EVs when they want). Thus, they think TSLA is vastly overvalued. One person in this quantitive camp is Patrick Archambault from Goldman Sachs. He's their main auto industry analyst. He's bearish on TSLA's stock price because he so quantitive-focused that he's missing out on the qualitative in his analysis of TSLA.
Anyway, my point being is that there's a huge battle going on around TSLA valuation between the bulls and bears. The bulls are qualitative-focused, while the bears are quantitative-focused. This is the reason why there's such dispersion of beliefs. Some people think it's worth 200+, others think it's worth 80. And both sides have good points. However, in the end I think the correct way to view an early-stage high growth company is qualitative. You need to look at how good their product/service is and how significantly better it is (or isn't) compared to its competitors. This is a qualitative exercise and I think it needs to be done by driving the car, driving other luxury cars in comparison, reading/talking with Model S owners and gauging satisfaction levels. However, the quantitative-focused analysts and shorts aren't doing those things.
It reminds me of why Buffett is so darn good as an investor. Prior to him, his mentor Ben Graham was heavily into quantitative analysis, and that guided his investment decisions. What Buffett did was he took the quantitative skills as necessary but he added the qualitative analysis by interviewing management, trying out the products, comparing it to competitors, etc. It's extremely difficult IMO to marry both the qualitative and quantitive. Most people tend to side with one extreme (ie., science vs humanities).
Anyway, the wide range of opinions toward TSLA leads to the wide range of price targets, which is why we ought to probably expect short interest to remain fairly high (above 15mm) for the foreseeable future (ie., next few to several months). With that much short interest and with a large number of pessimistic people out there regarding TSLA valuation, I think we're in for a very volatile next few to several months. In other words, I don't see volatility going away anytime soon.
The only question left is which direction will the volatility trend in over time - down, sideways, or up.
Personally, I think there's way too many qualitative-focused people joining the optimistic long camp (ie., every day people drive the car and buy stock). As the stock rises in price, you'll have more quantitative-focused pessimistic folks join the bear camp as well. This will provide some balance. And you'll likely have big swings in price as some days/weeks the qualitative folks will be winning (ie., car awards, high price targets, etc). And other days/weeks the quantitative bears will be winning (ie., sub-100 price targets, valuation fears, etc).
All in all, I'd expect the trend to be up though as TSLA is just too sexy of a potential megastock for the qualitative folks to stay away. The believers will continue to prop up the stock at major dips and will provide upward pressure over time.
I've got a ton more thoughts on this, but I'll end it here and save it for a later time... maybe... if anybody's curious.
"I think people want to back this man [Elon]. I think this man is loved. If you were in our position, you get 10 emails a day saying why Tesla should be a $4 stock. Ok, well memo to all those people who think it's a $4 stock: Go drive a Tesla. You're going to have to pry me out of one the next time. He [Elon] sent one for us to do a test drive. I don't regard myself as a great driver, but when I was behind the wheel I got to tell you... [I was a great driver...]"
Ok, so I think Cramer's probably exaggerating about the $4 stock price in the emails, but it's interesting to note that he's still receiving a ton of emails from TSLA shorts. This is what he's calling the "short TSLA" movement and it continues.
What Cramer is finally catching on to is the qualitative value of TSLA, meaning their product is so crazy good and that gives value to the company (and will support future growth). That's what the bear camp refuses to recognize. The bear camp is looking at TSLA through quantitive lenses, meaning their looking at valuation compared with other companies and current revenue/profit/etc. They don't believe the car is revolutionary (they think other manufacturers can make better EVs when they want). Thus, they think TSLA is vastly overvalued. One person in this quantitive camp is Patrick Archambault from Goldman Sachs. He's their main auto industry analyst. He's bearish on TSLA's stock price because he so quantitive-focused that he's missing out on the qualitative in his analysis of TSLA.
Anyway, my point being is that there's a huge battle going on around TSLA valuation between the bulls and bears. The bulls are qualitative-focused, while the bears are quantitative-focused. This is the reason why there's such dispersion of beliefs. Some people think it's worth 200+, others think it's worth 80. And both sides have good points. However, in the end I think the correct way to view an early-stage high growth company is qualitative. You need to look at how good their product/service is and how significantly better it is (or isn't) compared to its competitors. This is a qualitative exercise and I think it needs to be done by driving the car, driving other luxury cars in comparison, reading/talking with Model S owners and gauging satisfaction levels. However, the quantitative-focused analysts and shorts aren't doing those things.
It reminds me of why Buffett is so darn good as an investor. Prior to him, his mentor Ben Graham was heavily into quantitative analysis, and that guided his investment decisions. What Buffett did was he took the quantitative skills as necessary but he added the qualitative analysis by interviewing management, trying out the products, comparing it to competitors, etc. It's extremely difficult IMO to marry both the qualitative and quantitive. Most people tend to side with one extreme (ie., science vs humanities).
Anyway, the wide range of opinions toward TSLA leads to the wide range of price targets, which is why we ought to probably expect short interest to remain fairly high (above 15mm) for the foreseeable future (ie., next few to several months). With that much short interest and with a large number of pessimistic people out there regarding TSLA valuation, I think we're in for a very volatile next few to several months. In other words, I don't see volatility going away anytime soon.
The only question left is which direction will the volatility trend in over time - down, sideways, or up.
Personally, I think there's way too many qualitative-focused people joining the optimistic long camp (ie., every day people drive the car and buy stock). As the stock rises in price, you'll have more quantitative-focused pessimistic folks join the bear camp as well. This will provide some balance. And you'll likely have big swings in price as some days/weeks the qualitative folks will be winning (ie., car awards, high price targets, etc). And other days/weeks the quantitative bears will be winning (ie., sub-100 price targets, valuation fears, etc).
All in all, I'd expect the trend to be up though as TSLA is just too sexy of a potential megastock for the qualitative folks to stay away. The believers will continue to prop up the stock at major dips and will provide upward pressure over time.
I've got a ton more thoughts on this, but I'll end it here and save it for a later time... maybe... if anybody's curious.
Can anybody explain to me how someone like Cory Johnson at Bloomberg is allowed to stay on the air? I dont think I have ever heard him say something accurate and he is constantly negative about everything no matter how positive it is. Hes been on several times today already and hes been mentioning both the quantitative and qualitative aspects (discussed by DaveT) of Tesla and in regards to the Hyperloop and he is not right about any of it. The quantitative aspect makes it the most obvious when his numbers are so far of it just stupidity. An example was when they argued that "well atleast Tesla still has a long waiting list" and he counters with, "NO THEY DONT, NOT ANY MORE" its just incredible to me that such a well respected organization such as bloomberg lets him stay on for years and years. I think this is also a good comparison to many other analysts who simply just have NO IDEA about what they are talking about.
MoshMusic
Member
DaveT, I would love to hear your thoughts and am very curious about your analysis. (I've been reading these posts for a while, and decided this morning that it's time to join my first forum ever.) You have a very balanced approach, and you're a great source of knowledge for a first time investor like me. I've been long since May 6th, got in at 57.
What I'm having trouble with is coming up with a strategy to protect my profits, and it's too difficult to just look away and ignore the volatility from day to day. Reading your posts helps get me through the tougher days.
marvinat0rz
Member
Not letting volatility affect your judgement is probably the hardest challenge in long-term investing. But in the end, you'll get used to it somehow. Good luck 
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