Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[twinklejet]

I stand by my prediction of a market open drop and then a recovery to above 140 today. Please let me be right. LOL.

 

[uselesslogin]

I stand by my prediction of a market open drop and then a recovery to above 140 today. Please let me be right. LOL.

Well it just broke through. And on a day when the rest of the market is down big.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Well it just broke through. And on a day when the rest of the market is down big.

That's why I felt confident. Market was tanking and TSLA was holding on. Now I wish I bought more, haha.

 

[Citizen-T]

I hope this continues, I backed the truck up at the lows today. =)

 

[sleepyhead]

This is all due to the inclusion to the MSCI World Index today, because market is getting slaughtered.

 

[ShortSlaver]

I'm still convinced to expand my position. Sold off mostly everything last week except a small position, waiting to get back in with LEAP's if we get to low 130's. However, this is beginning to look convincing.

 

[AlMc]

+1. I think we will see pre Q2 earnings report of $130-134 today. Tomorrow it will settle to just under $140. Short term after that will see 10-14 days bounce around 135-142 then slow push upward. I think the only way it goes up quicker is some sort of very positive announcement from Elon or some analysts increasing their targets. I don't see either of those happening in the short term.

Quoating myself.....Looks like (happily) my prediction may be wrong.:biggrin:

 

[justdoit]

Nice to see some green again Lets just hope it holds. Was feeling confident this morning and bought some Sept and Dec OTM calls. Don't want to miss the run up.

But like Jonathan said, I wish I bought some more now. haha

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

But like Jonathan said, I wish I bought some more now. haha

lol

 

[c041v]

Phew. Was up early and turfed the Aug $135 puts around $136.

DaveT's household must be feeling good right about now...

 

[Citizen-T]

A little late, but just saw this statistic: since the Q1 report, TSLA has never had 5 consecutive down days (today would have been day 5).

 

[SuryaDham]

If the stock does go down from here I still have AUG $135 puts I bought pre earnings report. Those will cushion any fall today/tomorrow if it breaks through. I felt pretty confident buying at ~138, especially once I wrote Sep $150 covered calls.

I guess I bought your Sep 150 calls... bought some an hour ago @ 4,65...
Made already more than 50% on them (on paper... will hold onto them for now).
Also bought some later as part of a Sep 150/155 bull-spread.
So funny, that we are both bullish on TSLA, and within your setup it made sense to sell those calls and within mine it made sense to buy them and we are both up now with our setup.

 

[twinklejet]

Well it just broke through. And on a day when the rest of the market is down big.

I put my money where my mouth is and got in at 136 at the open. Yesterday I was expecting a sharp drop before recovery - but the news that the lock-up was FAKE made me change my buy order to market open cause I wasn't expecting the drop to be huge. Should have put a limit below 136 though cause they filled mine above :/ My slow brokerage.

Anyhow I'm glad my expectations were met... But my prediction of 150 tomorrow seems a little too high... Might have to revise that... Still has a chance of dropping although chances are slimmer now that it is being added to another index! Woot :biggrin:

 

[DonPedro]

Debunking the GAAP Non-GAAP thing is incomplete, and it really should be completed.

My issue with non-GAAP is not the lease accounting. It is the other items. For instance, employee stocks and options are a cost to investors - the users of the financial information. Those costs should have been left in there. In fact, to those of us who believe in a big upside in Tesla, $100 dilution is actually worse than $100 cash cost. But in the non-GAAP the former is treated as zero and the other as $100.

In the end, though, they are transparent on what they are doing. Any investor can see the GAAP, the non-GAAP and the reconciliation of the two. That is the main thing, and the reason why John Peterson should stuff it.

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

I guess I bought your Sep 150 calls... bought some an hour ago @ 4,65...
Made already more than 50% on them (on paper... will hold onto them for now).
Also bought some later as part of a Sep 150/155 bull-spread.
So funny, that we are both bullish on TSLA, and within your setup it made sense to sell those calls and within mine it made sense to buy them and we are both up now with our setup.

Yeah! Funny stuff. I bought 200 shares, 2 Sep $130 calls, then wrote the $150 calls. I have unlimited upside with this setup but not as much % gain as yours. I'm glad we are both up

 

[gregincal]

My issue with non-GAAP is not the lease accounting. It is the other items. For instance, employee stocks and options are a cost to investors - the users of the financial information. Those costs should have been left in there. In fact, to those of us who believe in a big upside in Tesla, $100 dilution is actually worse than $100 cash cost. But in the non-GAAP the former is treated as zero and the other as $100.

In the end, though, they are transparent on what they are doing. Any investor can see the GAAP, the non-GAAP and the reconciliation of the two. That is the main thing, and the reason why John Peterson should stuff it.

Yeah, you have all the information to determine things your own way. Personally I find making up a fictitious dollar number to account for the dilution to be strange. I much prefer to look at profit without that and account for the amount of future dilution separately. I believe almost all companies don't count that cost in non-GAAP.

 

[Zythryn]

Although my portfolio is taking a serious hit today, I must admit, I enjoy seeing one green stock on a Dow -200 day.

 

[deonb]

Yeah, you have all the information to determine things your own way. Personally I find making up a fictitious dollar number to account for the dilution to be strange. I much prefer to look at profit without that and account for the amount of future dilution separately. I believe almost all companies don't count that cost in non-GAAP.

I've copied all the Q2 statements over to an Excel spreadsheet. Feel free to modify it to get to the format you like:

View attachment Tesla Q2 2013.xlsx


EDIT:

Speaking of which, does anybody know why:
Net income (loss) per common share, diluted (4)(5)

for Mar 31, 2013 is $0? It should be 9c according to my calculations (cell C32 in the attached spreadsheet).

 

[sahanim]

this might be a little optimistic but the addition to the MSCI world index is keeping tesla in the green today on a day where most everything is red. Could this be the end of the bear raid and the tipping point. As Julian put it: "the stock is converting from a story stock to a momentum stock"

Thoughts?

 

[DaveT]

DaveT's household must be feeling good right about now...

Nope. Morning of remorse. Megapost coming later today.