Norse
Active Member
Thanks all! I got some 140 aug calls for 1.10 each. sold half of them instantly for 200% profit. Tho I think it will climb higher today if market turns
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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ShortSlaver
Member
Always could, but taking a 100% profit in a matter of an hour is worth cashing in on always.
Quick thought on TSLA being added to the MSCI index. I'm doubting that it's the main reason TSLA is up today (though I think it could be a minor reason). I think TSLA is up because it found a bottom at 135.00 and it's bounced up out of the 130s. I'm thinking (80% odds) that this is the reversal of mood/sentiment and the restarting of the uptrend. Wouldn't be surprised (60% odds) to see it above 150 by end of next week (conditional on overall market not correcting/dipping).
TSLA and KORS additions to MSCI index were announced after trading yesterday afternoon (MSCI Equity Indices August 2013 Index Review - WSJ.com). At the moment, KORS is down 2% from yesterday. The MSCI index addition didn't keep KORS from being hit. But TSLA is up 2% at the moment from yesterday's close. Just more reason to doubt it's purely the MSCI addition fueling TSLA's gain today. I think the MSCI addition is somewhat helpful to TSLA at the moment, but I think the bigger reason for TSLA's rebound is more simple: it's found the bottom (at least near-term).
Further, if the MSCI addition was the sole reason for TSLA's rebound I think pre-market should have reflected that (ie., we should have seen a rise in PM prices) but PM went lower. It was only have TSLA touched $135 that it reversed. TSLA's been trying to find a bottom for the past few days, and I think today it found it. Thus, negative mood/sentiment is halted, and we can now start the reversal.
Just some thoughts. Would love to hear what others are thinking.
TSLA and KORS additions to MSCI index were announced after trading yesterday afternoon (MSCI Equity Indices August 2013 Index Review - WSJ.com). At the moment, KORS is down 2% from yesterday. The MSCI index addition didn't keep KORS from being hit. But TSLA is up 2% at the moment from yesterday's close. Just more reason to doubt it's purely the MSCI addition fueling TSLA's gain today. I think the MSCI addition is somewhat helpful to TSLA at the moment, but I think the bigger reason for TSLA's rebound is more simple: it's found the bottom (at least near-term).
Further, if the MSCI addition was the sole reason for TSLA's rebound I think pre-market should have reflected that (ie., we should have seen a rise in PM prices) but PM went lower. It was only have TSLA touched $135 that it reversed. TSLA's been trying to find a bottom for the past few days, and I think today it found it. Thus, negative mood/sentiment is halted, and we can now start the reversal.
Just some thoughts. Would love to hear what others are thinking.
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Krugerrand
Meow
My thought is that nothing's changed. Market taking a beating = Tesla up. Yep, that looks about right.
I'd think if market's tanking people either pull money from the market/equities into safer assets (ie., cash, treasuries, gold, bonds, dividend-paying stocks if they need to stay in the market, etc). If they're opportunists, they'll short the market and reverse position when the downtrend stops/reverses.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Perfect storm of the much discussed lock-up being debunked, being added to a new index, and hit strong technical support (I believe this to be the biggest reason of the three).
sahanim
Member
You hit some points i had missed. Im quite new to this so could you explain some things to me:
You said the market found the bottom at 135 and quickly bounced out of the 130s. What were the mechanics behind this? I understand that there were probably a lot of limit orders set for 135 which would stop it from falling below 135 but what caused it to bounce out of the 130s? How did the 135 floor affect the overall mood/sentiment? How do we know that 135 is the bottom?
mitch672
Active Member
There are 2 more attacks (negative articles where the authors magically have no positions) on TSLA on "Seeking Mediocrity", hopefully they won't have any effect.
It's just tracking the overall market now apparently :/ boring...
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I think I'm either just as new or newer than u as well but here is my take on the matter since nobody has responded to you yet:
Basically there would have been a lot of buy limit orders around 135 that took effect once the stock got there. This rush of buy orders pushed the stock up to perhaps 138 or 139? Then there would be a group of people/instituitions who have cash ready to buy but did not place any orders waiting to see the stock "reverse" from downward to upward and then they place market buy orders while the stock is going up pushing the stock further to 140+ ? I'm guessing that's it.
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I think I'm either just as new or newer than u as well but here is my take on the matter since nobody has responded to you yet:
Basically there would have been a lot of buy limit orders around 135 that took effect once the stock got there. This rush of buy orders pushed the stock up to perhaps 138 or 139? Then there would be a group of people/instituitions who have cash ready to buy but did not place any orders waiting to see the stock "reverse" from downward to upward and then they place market buy orders while the stock is going up pushing the stock further to 140+ ? I'm guessing that's it.
i agree it's not from the MSCI index. Just some institutional support coming in I think....perhaps the likes of the Contra Fund. If the institutional shorts had their way they'd try to drag the price down well below 100 over the coming weeks if they could before they'd consider covering. I can imagine the manager for the Contra Fund sitting there willing to buy more and more TSLA as the price comes down knowing that this will be a HUGE growth name over the next 5 years+. In fact, if I was him I wouldn't be worried about buying millions of more shares in the 120s and 130s if the shorts kept trying to push it down. Anyone who's studied the company and the product knows TSLA will be a major success as time goes on. Sure the stock may have gotten ahead of itself above 150 but that's the nature of any insane growth stock like this (ie. AMZN, GOOG, NFLX, APPL, etc.)
another curious item is all the bad articles in Seeking Alpha especially. I'm really dissappointed in that organization with the way they treat Julian, the way they delete our comments, and produce so many negative pieces on TSLA. It's something the SEC should investigate. How can we blow the whistle on this?
Feel the same way. I get emails whenever they have a new article about TSLA and the past few days have all been negative articles. I just don't bother clicking the links b/c I don't want to give them page views
thats what I'd like the SEC to investigate, the motives/incentives behind SA doing this
sahanim
Member
Feel the same way. I get emails whenever they have a new article about TSLA and the past few days have all been negative articles. I just don't bother clicking the links b/c I don't want to give them page views
As much as i dont want to click on their articles i do anyways. i want to see if any of them actually have some fair criticism. Fortunately, most of their arguments make my head hurt because of how short-sighted they are.
NuclearPowered
Member
This is a piece that came out from a company others on TMC are investing in, but I find it particularily applicable to TSLA at this time.
Organovo Cautions Investors in Regards to Articles - Yahoo! Finance
Organovo Cautions Investors in Regards to Articles - Yahoo! Finance
Negative we go.
Today's close: 138.25
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First jump = Daytrade short covering. Second jump = Daytraders going long...
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