Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Johann Koeber]

I dont think you pay interest if you daytrade with margin, I don't. If it's two days, then your Math sounds right

Daytrading is buying and selling on the same day.

Interest is charged for the night.

Daytraders closing all positions the same day will pay no brokers interest.

If you sell 2 days later (2 nights involved, 4 on a typical weekend) you will pay broker interest for 2 or 4 days (but it is for the nights actually).

 

[Maknyuzz]

I think the rest of August is going to be slow choppy or even red market. Then we will get September romp... then October will be flat choppy market, followed by Santa Rally Nov Dec.

As for Tesla, i think it is going to be slow boring movement as we saw in June, slow flat/slightly upwards/sideways move until end of August before September romp.

 

[justdoit]

Daytrading is buying and selling on the same day.

Interest is charged for the night.

Daytraders closing all positions the same day will pay no brokers interest.

If you sell 2 days later (2 nights involved, 4 on a typical weekend) you will pay broker interest for 2 or 4 days (but it is for the nights actually).

Thanks for the clarification.

 

[mershaw2001]

Daytrading is buying and selling on the same day.

Interest is charged for the night.

Daytraders closing all positions the same day will pay no brokers interest.

If you sell 2 days later (2 nights involved, 4 on a typical weekend) you will pay broker interest for 2 or 4 days (but it is for the nights actually).

Actually, I have heard that if you hold the position less than three days (the time it takes to settle) then you will not get charged any margin interest at certain brokerages.
I've got a bit better rate, under 4%, and I usually just hold 100% on margin. Days like yesterday are usually killer, but I just covered my shorts and went long into tesla following DaveT with sept options.

 

[Norbert]

To the few post above, here are my thoughts.

So let's go over what the majority of investor's know (the qualitative)
- Great leadership
- Great product
- Execution Focus
- Government Assistance
- Track record of performance

Just to add to that since it seems easy to forget, and since this played into DaveT's short term volatility analysis:
- Battery technology improving both in price and in range. (This not only enables Gen3, but will also improve either margin or price of ModelS and X (and any other EV).
Contributes to volatility since this is an unknown, and news on the topic vary).
- And of course the growing market, both geographically and through increased knowledge and acceptance of EVs).
Also contributes to volatility since this is an unknown as well.

 

[Maknyuzz]

I remember back in May-Aug, there are sooo many things to look forward to that act as catalyst to the stock, from 5 part trilogy, Cap raise, to WH petition, TESLIVE, Design Studio changes, and finally Q2 earnings.

From now until Q3 earnings what can we look forward to? Seems a lil bit dull to me... but if I think hard and try to force it really hard perhaps we can look forward to:
- Samsung battery supplier partnership
- WH petition response
- Side Mirror removal appeal got approved? and pop up in Design Studio as option
- China/Asia update
- AWD option
- Battery Swap installation in CA

What else??

 

[mershaw2001]

It's best to buy options when the perceived IV is low, which might be now. Much better than when these issues that you bring up Maknyuzz come to the spotlight and the IV increases.

 

[Norse]

I remember back in May-Aug, there are sooo many things to look forward to that act as catalyst to the stock, from 5 part trilogy, Cap raise, to WH petition, TESLIVE, Design Studio changes, and finally Q2 earnings.

From now until Q3 earnings what can we look forward to? Seems a lil bit dull to me... but if I think hard and try to force it really hard perhaps we can look forward to:
- Samsung battery supplier partnership
- WH petition response
- Side Mirror removal appeal got approved? and pop up in Design Studio as option
- China/Asia update
- AWD option
- Battery Swap installation in CA

What else??

-The partnership With Daimler and Toyota might change? Maybe they buy the drivetrain?
-Big Shuttle Companies buys bunch of cars With battery swap? (I don't know why this has not been done already)

 

[Mr. Farmer]

Done watching TSLA for awhile... Could be sideways for next month. Found my towel, but bought more Sep SPY puts none the less. Rates up, gold up again. A drop to DOW 14,600 would confirm the upcoming head and shoulders pattern in my book.

 

[aznt1217]

To build on this point. I think aside from battery tech. The economies of scale will seriously play out for Model S and X. The X is going to be using the same parts. The only thing that's different is the "opportunity space." Skateboard, watermelon motor, and the chargers will all be the same. They should be able to make the X a lot more profitable based on these facts.

 

[justdoit]

It's best to buy options when the perceived IV is low, which might be now. Much better than when these issues that you bring up Maknyuzz come to the spotlight and the IV increases.

I agree. The longer the price stays flat the more opportunities I have to save up some cash to buy getting ready for Q3 and Q4 earnings. The IV is low but options prices still seem pretty high to me. Anyone have thoughts on why that might be?

 

[uselesslogin]

3rd time it August it closed with a whole dollar value. What does that mean?

 

[ShortSlaver]

I'm still in a very small position with TSLA. I still fear more downside. Options are overpriced and there isn't any predictable news ahead. Might be sideways for awhile here - I feel comfortable at this price and it fits a lot of price targets. I could be wrong but I think over the next 2 months there's other places to make money. But I'll have my eye open for any opportunity to acquire more position.

Remember, this stock was rather dormant before April 1st of this year. It would move in range but wasn't very volatile. The volcano might be done for now and we will just sort of stay sleepy until something happens to move it one way or the other. I feel like the drama is over for now.

 

[Convert2013]

-The partnership With Daimler and Toyota might change? Maybe they buy the drivetrain?
-Big Shuttle Companies buys bunch of cars With battery swap? (I don't know why this has not been done already)

I'm thinkin for the duration of Q3 potential catalysts:

1. New partnerships with the majors
2. China demand numbers
3. Europe demand numbers
4. Analyst upgrades
5. X pricing, more Gen 3 details

 

[Russell]

laser sharp marketing. Seems the first marketing event of this kind?

The test drives are this weekend during the Pebble Beach Concours d'Elegance. And anybody can signup.

Concours d'Elegance | Monterey Auto Shows | Monterey Sporting Events
Test Drive Model S at Pebble Beach! | Events | Tesla Motors

 

[ongba]

Tsla's price movement after earnings has indeed been confusing. I think a lot of professional traders/market makers were surprised after the Q1 earnings blast off and weren't going to let a repeat performance occur unless Q2 was a complete blowout. They let retail traders (including me) buy call options prior to earnings in anticipation of an outsized move (albeit less than what occurred in Q1), and then, along with volatility crush, bled out the time premium to allow otm calls to expire worthless. I sold my sept calls today (only a small position) and currently have march 2014 calls. My plan is if tsla does not restart its uptrend within the next couple weeks to a month (a move above the 10 day moving average would be a start) or if the markets look like they are about to take a dump, I will hedge my calls by selling higher strike calls against the calls I currently own, hopefully at enough of a premium to secure my initial risk capital.

 

[AlMc]

I'm still in a very small position with TSLA. I still fear more downside. Options are overpriced and there isn't any predictable news ahead. Might be sideways for awhile here - I feel comfortable at this price and it fits a lot of price targets. I could be wrong but I think over the next 2 months there's other places to make money. But I'll have my eye open for any opportunity to acquire more position.

Remember, this stock was rather dormant before April 1st of this year. It would move in range but wasn't very volatile. The volcano might be done for now and we will just sort of stay sleepy until something happens to move it one way or the other. I feel like the drama is over for now.

This is my thought also. I will be buying stock if it drops to under $130 during the next several weeks/leading up to Q3 earnings and would be surprised (pleasantly) to see it consistently break $150 at end of trading day(s) up to Q3 earnings.

I hope Elon has a couple new 'tweet teasers' that may help keep things interesting and that he is underplaying Q3 for another big surprise.

 

[brianstorms]

I'm thinkin for the duration of Q3 potential catalysts:

1. New partnerships with the majors
2. China demand numbers
3. Europe demand numbers
4. Analyst upgrades
5. X pricing, more Gen 3 details

I can't imagine, after Elon's performances in Q1 and Q2, that he's going to sit out most of Q3 without getting back out there with some compelling technology or business progress announcement. I think there will be something unexpected between now and end of Sept.

 

[DaveT]

Tesla just filed a few Form 3's today (statement of beneficial ownership). It shows a Gregory Reichow as VP of Manufacturing (but Gilbert Passin is the VP of
Manufacturing). Did some research and it appears that Gregory Reichow is VP of powertrain manufacturing operations (Tesla Adds New Talent to Management Team | Press Releases | Tesla Motors), so I guess they just abbreviated his job title in the Form 3. A bit confusing to me. But I'd assume nothing has changed and Gilbert is still VP of Manufacturing. Anyway. Also, Jerome's new title is officially VP Service & Sales Operations. According to my memory, this is the first time I've seen Jerome or Gregory in any of their official officer SEC filings (ie., Form 4, proxy statement, etc). I wonder if they've been promoted as official officers.

Gregory Reichow, VP of Manufacturing
Tesla Motors - Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership
(here's his LinkedIn page: Greg Reichow | LinkedIn)

Jerome Guillen, VP Service & Sales Operations
Tesla Motors - Initial Statement of Beneficial Ownership
(here's his LinkedIn page: Jerome Guillen | LinkedIn)

It appears George Blankenship's new title is VP Design and Store Development at Tesla Motors (LinkedIn: Join LinkedIn | LinkedIn). Previously it was VP Sales & Ownership Experience (Executive Bios | Tesla Motors).

 

[AudubonB]

Good for George B. I find that a title "VP of...Ownership Experience" is nauseatingly New Age-y, or La-La-Landish.

/Signed,

AudubonB
Director of The Shareholder Experiential Teamshipmentnesshood