Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Status
Not open for further replies.
So far it looks like we're slightly up in the pre-market hours to 150.35 was the last price I saw, hopefully this uptrend keeps going and finish the week above 160.

One thing I have a question about. I looked back at volume since the Q2 earnings and shares have been trading at relatively low volume since, from over 25mil the day after earnings to just over 5mil as of yesterday. Should this be a concern for us?
 
For the first time I'm aware of, Elon expressed his aspiration for 600/week by year end. He repeated 800/week by year end 2014. Seems like 35K is a reasonable target for 2014. I'm not certain, but I seem to remember his suggesting that 800/week end of 2014 was soley model S.

One other new piece of data... Elon consistently describes his time as split 50/50 between Tesla and SpaceX. In this interview he describes that as his ideal, explaining that for the past year it's probably been 70% Tesla 30% SpaceX. Elon, once more you and you're would be Martian friends have given on our behalf... Thanks!


Not a huge point but in the interview Elon clearly states above 600 by the end of the year.
 
So far it looks like we're slightly up in the pre-market hours to 150.35 was the last price I saw, hopefully this uptrend keeps going and finish the week above 160.

One thing I have a question about. I looked back at volume since the Q2 earnings and shares have been trading at relatively low volume since, from over 25mil the day after earnings to just over 5mil as of yesterday. Should this be a concern for us?

No. Not for me at least. This tells me the day traders are over at AAPL and NFLX now.
 
This is a bit of a concern:
Panasonic Corp will expand its lithium-ion battery business, which last year added to a near-record net loss...it is noteworthy given that the battery business lost money in the last financial year
So they are expanding a money losing part of their business, and Tesla will be putting more pressure on them to further reduce cell prices. I see a potential problem here and really hope they have ways to reduce production costs other than just more volume, which may have a minimal impact at these levels.
 
This is a bit of a concern:
So they are expanding a money losing part of their business, and Tesla will be putting more pressure on them to further reduce cell prices. I see a potential problem here and really hope they have ways to reduce production costs other than just more volume, which may have a minimal impact at these levels.

"Panasonic's small lithium-ion battery division had a standout April-June quarter with a 4.1 billion yen operating profit and a 5.8 percent margin, marking a turnaround from a 2 billion yen loss in the same period last year."

This looking good on the supply front! Panansonic is making money from small Li-ion batteries and Panansonic is adding two more production lines for small Li-Ion batteries.
 
"Panasonic's small lithium-ion battery division had a standout April-June quarter with a 4.1 billion yen operating profit and a 5.8 percent margin, marking a turnaround from a 2 billion yen loss in the same period last year."

This looking good on the supply front! Panansonic is making money from small Li-ion batteries and Panansonic is adding two more production lines for small Li-Ion batteries.

Musk mentioned Q1 or Q2 next year. He was probably thinking of this
 
We all knew this was coming but nice to get confirmation. More batteries http://www.cnbc.com/id/100977352

Yes, this is HUGE in my opinion. I'm sure it won't get publicized much, but this was my biggest concern, not getting enough batteries to raise production. It seemed like it would have been very difficult for them to switch battery suppliers or add a new battery supplier based on the unique chemistry they had developed so far with Panasonics batteries.
However, any other of the 1000 or so unique parts that are supply constrained i could imagine that they easily replace the supplier or build in house themselves.

im so much more comfortable now heading into the next 2-3 years (leading up to Gen III) that they will be able to produce over 100k Model S/X per year globally bc I think the demand will be there (best car and safest car).

There will have to be another huge ramp up by Panasonic at sme point in the next 2-3 years before Gen III I think in order to do 500k+ per year for Tesla, but that will come I think once Panasonic starts seeing the growing profits from doing enough to sustain 500-100k Model S/X per year. I can imagine TSLA buying Pamasonic at some point in the future when their market cap gets over 100bn.

Bottom line is I am much more comfortable to hold onto the stock now through this short term volatility that's almost impossible to predict. Now the question for me is how to get out of all my deep ItM options and transition into holding the stock....need to do it efficiently for tax and margin purposes while holding the maximum exposure to TSLA I can still.
 
Yes, this is HUGE in my opinion. I'm sure it won't get publicized much, but this was my biggest concern, not getting enough batteries to raise production. It seemed like it would have been very difficult for them to switch battery suppliers or add a new battery supplier based on the unique chemistry they had developed so far with Panasonics batteries.
However, any other of the 1000 or so unique parts that are supply constrained i could imagine that they easily replace the supplier or build in house themselves.

im so much more comfortable now heading into the next 2-3 years (leading up to Gen III) that they will be able to produce over 100k Model S/X per year globally bc I think the demand will be there (best car and safest car).

There will have to be another huge ramp up by Panasonic at sme point in the next 2-3 years before Gen III I think in order to do 500k+ per year for Tesla, but that will come I think once Panasonic starts seeing the growing profits from doing enough to sustain 500-100k Model S/X per year. I can imagine TSLA buying Pamasonic at some point in the future when their market cap gets over 100bn.

Bottom line is I am much more comfortable to hold onto the stock now through this short term volatility that's almost impossible to predict. Now the question for me is how to get out of all my deep ItM options and transition into holding the stock....need to do it efficiently for tax and margin purposes while holding the maximum exposure to TSLA I can still.

What is the stock symbol for Panasonic that deals with the batteries? Could it be of interest to invest in for the long term?
 
"Panasonic's small lithium-ion battery division had a standout April-June quarter with a 4.1 billion yen operating profit and a 5.8 percent margin, marking a turnaround from a 2 billion yen loss in the same period last year."

This looking good on the supply front! Panansonic is making money from small Li-ion batteries and Panansonic is adding two more production lines for small Li-Ion batteries.
Oops, somehow I missed that important point! :redface:
 
Did anyone watch the bloomberg special with Elon this morning? If I heard it right Elon said that they would have to purchase and build new factories for the gen III car that would be located closer to the end customer. This is the first time Ive heard about a new factory for the gen III as Ive previously assumed that it was going to be built in Freemont??
 
Looks like there is one by Sony for sale. (As per the Panasonic article).

Tesla needs to keep executing Model S & X development & production, finish engineering on Gen 3. Release prototype. Get 100000 pre orders. Do a secondary. Collect 1B. Buy plant from Sony or whoever. Start shipping Gen 3. Looks interesting.
 
Hmm, my predictions were luckily spot on today! I sold at the open (limit order $150 and it got filled)

Now I just got back in at $146.59 hope my predictions hold up. Most everyone ignores my predictions anyway so I've been surprisingly lucky :eek:

Might see lower tomorrow as well.

My entire premise was realising that TSLA has been closing above its open price everyday for the past 4 days and in the past 1 month or so, there has never been a more than 4 day consecutive close higher than open.
So statistically it would have been a very high chance (more than 50% for today to close lower than the open!)

It'll probably close between 146 - 148, lowest possibly 143.5 depending on external factors like that fed taper talk and stuff?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.