Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[everman]

I figure this is as good a time as any to make my first post. I have been following this thread daily since about page 700.

Quick history, watching Tesla Motors for a few years, but earlier this year found out more about Elon Musk and began voraciously consuming all of his interviews and videos. I decided to invest in his companies. I have a long position in TSLA established at $38, and have added to it throughout the year.

Today I added some more common shares to the long position after the flash-crash to $175. I basically picked up the closing price.

But more exciting, I purchased my first options. I got Nov'16 @ $225. They were a bit cheaper than the $200's and offer some post Q3 visibility.

Thanks to everyone regularly contributing on this thread, and on this site. You've all been very helpful.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Significant new details in this story where the driver is quoted as saying he hit "metal debris". The fire broke out after he had pulled over and "kept reigniting". Hmmmm....
Tesla Stock Tumbles After Model S Catches Fire - ABC News

 

[Larken]

I think that this fire incident and if there is a continuing downward tumble on the stock will in hindsight be seen as one of the best buying opportunities of TSLA stock. Nothing fundamental has changed regarding Tesla Motors (I don't think this will affect sales negatively in a significant way) and as soon as the dust settles and the coming positive Q-earnings come, I think the stock will keep going up. After all, it's not like ICE vehicles don't catch fire, and although I don't have any statisics, I think ICE vehicles are more prone to catch fire than a Tesla vehicle. So in essence, this incident will just prove that pure EV is still safer to drive than an ICE.

 

[AlMc]

Significant new details in this story where the driver is quoted as saying he hit "metal debris". The fire broke out after he had pulled over and "kept reigniting". Hmmmm....
Tesla Stock Tumbles After Model S Catches Fire - ABC News

and CNBC http://www.cnbc.com/id/101082077

 

[gym7rjm]

I think that this fire incident and if there is a continuing downward tumble on the stock will in hindsight be seen as one of the best buying opportunities of TSLA stock. Nothing fundamental has changed regarding Tesla Motors (I don't think this will affect sales negatively in a significant way) and as soon as the dust settles and the coming positive Q-earnings come, I think the stock will keep going up. After all, it's not like ICE vehicles don't catch fire, and although I don't have any statisics, I think ICE vehicles are more prone to catch fire than a Tesla vehicle. So in essence, this incident will just prove that pure EV is still safer to drive than an ICE.

It definitely depends how much media attention is given to this event and how bad the FUD is. I was hoping for a GS like dip, this, however, changes my confidence. Not in the fact that the car and execution is amazing, but that it might not blow over as quickly as we are hoping. In turn, this could dampen the positive effect of a really good Q3 report. I'm now questioning how much to allocate to Nov calls. I was ready to go in pretty big on a drop like this, now I have to do some thinking.

 

[HongKongFan]

I agree with Larken that nothing fundamental has changed and I as well as other fellow Teslarians believe that this small sensationalized incident (blown out of proportion by the news hungry media) should not derail the long-term prospect of Tesla.

Nevertheless, I am just very worried about the short-term implications of this incident that may cause a dramatic shift in the sentiment of the investors community. Most retail investors who have invested their saving in Tesla probably do not spend as much time as we do on Tesla Club forum or spend much time researching and understanding the company. To most of them all that matters are headlines news fed by the mainstream media. Over the past few months the news have been generally very positive for Tesla....until today's fire incident.

TSLA could be trading at $300-400 in the future; however, in the short-term, I am worried TSLA may experience a rollercoaster ride similar to the ones experienced by Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) or Netflix (NFLX). Netflix plunged from it's high of above $300 down to just $50 before climbing back up to above $300.

 

[Norse]

I went allin again at 180, since I saw it was running so fast. I am tho precting that its going up tomorrow, maybe a slight dip first. That also happed last time. Feeling really good about this day overall. And to you guys not in the solar biz yet, there is big activity on that thread atm.

 

[JRP3]

I'm betting the FUD will be at full volume tomorrow and the shares are going to be hit hard.

 

[BornToFly]

I am a long, but I thought about selling everything because of the fire coverage, and buying again near bottom. But I would loose 40% of gains to taxes, and timing re-entry could be tricky. I stand to loose much more by selling, since I don't think the stock will drop 40%. I think I will hold, and just buy more if it really dips a lot in the next week....

 

[HongKongFan]

I hesitated to reduce my TSLA holding after seeing a nice bounce from LOD to $182 and thought we were going to close near $190 after TESLA PR announcement. However, with the stock closing at near $180 and after-market trading now @ just $178.5, I think if we open below $180....it will be retesting 20MA and possibly even break below that level to hit previous resistant level of $173.

I'm betting the FUD will be at full volume tomorrow and the shares are going to be hit hard.

Exactly, most media outlets only begun to piled on the news after the market close, so we should expect the FUD to reach if not climax then at least a very high level tomorrow. People will come back home from work tonight...switch on TV, fire up their iPad and will learn about the news. Tesla has been on the front page news of automobile (& non related) news for most of the past few months which was great for the company, but the highly public profile could actually inflict a great deal of harm due to this incident.

As many in here fear...short-sellers, competitors, or anyone who hates Tesla or Elon for some reason (e.g. jealously) will take this opportunity to promote fear, uncertainty and more doubt about TESLA.

 

[hershey101]

Sigh... I wish people acted more like the rational agents that economists etc. assume in their models. Then they would see this fire thing isn't such a big deal. It's so easy to see that nothing fundamental about the company has changed between now and back when DB announced their PT to $200, and yet, we are back into the $170s... Oh well, I bought some at $180 but couldn't sell before close for a profit, I think I'll just stick with those options, and buy more tomorrow. I missed the dip to $175 because I was in class and the internet on campus is terrible!

 

[PeterJA]

... although I don't have any statisics, I think ICE vehicles are more prone to catch fire than a Tesla vehicle...

17 ICE cars catch fire every hour, and kill 4 people every week.
Vehicles

 

[anticitizen13.7]

This fire is nothing compared to the Intel Pentium FDIV bug in 1993 or 1994. Intel stock went on to great heights over the next 7 years. I wouldn't think this fire should cause anyone to sweat.

 

[Mr. Farmer]

TSLA will probably open in the 160's tomorrow. Wish I were paying attention today, probably missed my chance. I'm more interested in the fact that institutional ownership just dropped from the high 70%'s into the high 50's this month. In the past the low liquidity has kept selloffs from becoming anything substantial. Now that more retail investors are picking up the slack I expect to see more volatility.

 

[fjm9898]

Anyone that sells stock because on or 15,000 cars caught fire for an undetermined reason is nuts. We all know ICE cars catch fire all the damn time so one Electric car catching fire because of an accident is no different the thousands of ICEs. Its media doing what they do best, making a big deal of nothing.

For all of our sake i hope this ends up like the GS dip and we get +$5 tomorrow. If it keep going down and breaks the 20MA, we could be in for some hurt.

 

[AlMc]

Sigh... I wish people acted more like the rational agents that economists etc. assume in their models. Then they would see this fire thing isn't such a big deal. It's so easy to see that nothing fundamental about the company has changed between now and back when DB announced their PT to $200, and yet, we are back into the $170s... Oh well, I bought some at $180 but couldn't sell before close for a profit, I think I'll just stick with those options, and buy more tomorrow. I missed the dip to $175 because I was in class and the internet on campus is terrible!

If it were not for irrational behavior the option market would be non existent and the share price would reflect the value of an automotive company not a disruptive hybrid auto/tech company. This company, it's growth, valuations, execution of mission will be studied at the Sloan School, Wharton and Harvard School of Business (apologies to other impeccable business schools) for years to come. This is a pure momentum stock. I missed out on Apple and Amazon. While I don't like the ups/downs (less sleep at night/more antacids by day) I am in on this one and this is an 'interesting' ride.

I have no (nada/none) clue of where this stock is going short term. I suspect it will dip in premarket and early hours trading. TM will put out some positive news about the fire and maybe throw out a bone hinting at good Q3 (large Asian/European orders/battery deal) and the stock will stabilize in the low 170s and close the day where it opened (high 170s).

edit: If Elon has an 'evil twin' he will purposely put out nothing and set up for another Tsunami of hurt for the shorts pre Q3. Doubt this will happen but......

 

[Convert2013]

What's kind of interesting is one of the guys in the truck taking the video claimed it was a "new car" while looking at the fire from the front of the car. It was not until he passed the car completely he identified it as a Tesla... hmmm how did he know it was a new car???

 

[fjm9898]

What's kind of interesting is one of the guys in the truck taking the video claimed it was a "new car" while looking at the fire from the front of the car. It was not until he passed the car completely he identified it as a Tesla... hmmm how did he know it was a new car???

Well WA requires front plates, though the fire kind of covers that up.
But i would highly doubt that a Team of shorts came together, bought a tesla, set it a blaze, and filmed it with a ****** cell phone camera.

Tesla will pull the black box info and get down to this for us.

 

[Robertj]

Have been a stock buyer at 50,75, 123 & today at 180, intend to buy more if it drops further
IMHO this stock will be a great long term hold, will be a game changer and look forward to
the cars making it to NZ
the only thing I will find hard is selling some stock to buy the model s

 

[Convert2013]

With the government shutdown the NHTSA is also shutdown, meaning the full investigation is far from over which could cause Tesla stock to go further down or linger in a lower range. Bearish stuff today for sure.