Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Convert2013]

WTF? How the hell is that allowed? I have 35 hours week. And Im only allowed to work 200 hours overtime a year.

Btw: I dont know what a Chevy volt costs in the US, but its twin the Opel Ampera used to cost 70 000$ here, (model S is 75 000$)now they have dumped the price 10 000$ to 60 000$. Hmm.. what to choose.. 200 people in Norway have to live with the wrong choice.

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I know you didnt mean to do that. But I just picture how the media will put it.

How the hell is that allowed? It's American Capitalism: Work hard so your company execs and investors can get rich. As a consequence social scene takes a huge hit. That's why we are investing in Tesla.. so we can all get rich and finally have a life like you Europeans!

 

[Norse]

How the hell is that allowed? It's American Capitalism: Work hard so your company execs and investors can get rich. As a consequence social scene takes a huge hit. That's why we are investing in Tesla.. so we can all get rich and finally have a life like you Europeans!

Scandinavia is doing good, the rest of Europe not so much. I think 25% of the people in Spain are out of jobs. Greece are even more screwed I guess. We have alot of money in Norway yes, but I have to pay 11 dollars for a beer at the pub. 55$ for a bottle of vodka at the store. And the cars are really expencive, except for EVs

 

[Convert2013]

Scandinavia is doing good, the rest of Europe not so much. I think 25% of the people in Spain are out of jobs. Greece are even more screwed I guess. We have alot of money in Norway yes, but I have to pay 11 dollars for a beer at the pub. 55$ for a bottle of vodka at the store. And the cars are really expencive, except for EVs

Sounds like you guys got it right.. all the things that are bad for you are expensive- alcohol and gasoline powered cars. Both are cheap here hence we have a long way to evolve ;-) But we are changing, thanks to Tesla (but I'd like to keep the alcohol cheap still) ;-)

 

[Norse]

Sounds like you guys got it right.. all the things that are bad for you are expensive- alcohol and gasoline powered cars. Both are cheap here hence we have a long way to evolve ;-) But we are changing, thanks to Tesla (but I'd like to keep the alcohol cheap still) ;-)

Yeah, but we will run out of oil. I actually think we should stop before whe run out. And when the oil runs out we are ****ed, so thats why im investing in Tesla and solar.

 

[2Pearls]

I think this editorial by a writer at Motley Fool did an excellent job stating that the Safety of the Model S will be fine.

Tesla Under Fire: A Broader Look
By Alexander MacLennan | More Articles | Save For Later
October 3, 2013 | Comments (0)

Shares of Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA**) had one of their worst days ever on October 2 after an analyst downgrade and a video of a Tesla Model S on fire. However, the media has seized on the issue of the Model S on fire. But is this really a major threat to Tesla or is a larger perspective on auto fires in order? We'll take a look at real life numbers and the Tesla situation.

EV fears
Ever since the introduction of the latest wave of electric vehicles, there has been a fear among many people that the lithium-ion batteries powering the vehicle are ready to burst into flame. Internet videos surfaced all over of people causing lithium-ion laptop batteries to catch fire or explode. However many of these videos involved the video's creator abusing the battery in a way that would can any volatile storage device to explode.

The pre-launch testing of General Motors' (NYSE: GM**) Chevrolet Volt stoked fears even more as a Volt went up in flames. However, the fire occurred three weeks after the PHEV had been crash-tested while engineers were monitoring for long-term effects. Since then, GM has made modifications to the Volt to prevent battery fires.

Today, it is rare to see commentary on Volt sales mention the fire from early testing. More often, sales of the Volt are linked to economic factors including MSRP and gas prices.

It's on fire!
To those who could not believe that a start-up automaker could make an electric car, the Model S fire served up a perfect dish of Tesla failure. However, the situation involving the Model S is far from the typical EV fear scenario.

Unlike the fears of li-ion batteries bursting into flame in your garage or exploding into a giant fireball in the event of a crash, the Model S fire occurred after a collision but did not involve any explosion. In fact, the car told the driver to pull over (however, the driver had already exited the vehicle) and the driver was able to exit the vehicle before the front end ignited later.The fire was then contained, thanks to the car's battery management system, which contained the fire to the front end of the vehicle with flames never entering the interior cabin.

In fact, the effectiveness of the containment goes much to the credit of the battery design. By selecting 18650 cells from Panasonic (NASDAQOTH: PCRFY**) , Tesla was able to create a battery pack made up of thousands of small cells that could be more easily contained than if a large cell had been damaged. Additionally, the cylindrical shapes of Panasonic's 18650 cells create less direct contract between cells, helping to prevent a fire in one cell from igniting another.

Travel comparisons
Whenever we choose to travel, we have to accept varying degrees of risk. Getting on a plane? There's roughly a 1-in-11 million chance you will be killed. Taking the bus? There's a risk of a crash there. Opt to walk? You can never be certain you won't become a victim of street crime.

And when it comes to choosing cars, everything is about risk management. Therefore, we must look at the Model S incident in a broader context of automobile accidents.

According to the National Fire Prevention Association, there's an average of 17 car fires per hour. Just think, by the time you've read this article, another car has probably caught fire. The association also notes that while only 2% of fires come from fuel tanks and fuel lines (the closest thing to Tesla's battery), they account for around 15% of deaths. From the experience seen in this fire, the Model S did a remarkable job of warning the driver and containing the fire, drastically reducing the chance of death.

We should also address the cause of the fire. Unlike EV fears, which would have called for a spontaneous fire, the Model S collided with a large metallic object in the road that pierced the battery pack. In the interest of comparing the risk of driving various vehicles, we must consider that a large metallic object piercing a gas tank is also likely to pose a major safety risk.

In perspective
Looking at this Model S fire incident, it would at first seem that the fear of li-ion batteries is being confirmed. However, a closer look shows that Tesla's battery was significantly damaged in a way likely to cause adverse effects to an internal combustion vehicle as well. Furthermore, the effectiveness in containing the fire and warning the driver stand in contrast to many fires involving ICE vehicles where there is no management system to control a gas-fueled fire.

Tesla shares are now down around 10% from before the analyst downgrade and fire were reported. But based on the events surrounding this incident and comparisons to other existing vehicles, I view the safety fears involving the Model S to be greatly overblown. Investors with a similar perspective on the Model S should do their own research and, if they do choose to buy, look for an acceptable entry point.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

I think the only good thing about this fire now is that it's finally out of the way. It was an axe hanging over Tesla, waiting to happen as statistically it was bound to at some point. Timing wise it's not a bad time because of earnings just around the corner, but it is a bad time with the government shutdown (though the NHTSA not investigating immediately may be a blessing in disguise? giving TSLA time to come up with a nice response and possible voluntary mitigation if needed).

I've thought the two main big risks associated with TSLA have been a major fire+death event and Elon's health. If either came with bad news we'd be in for a major shocker. Right now the shocker is ~10% which is less than I'd have assumed and a vast majority of commentary on the net is positive because the Tesla held up extremely well to the extreme damage. I think the next real bad news event will be the first Model S passenger death (and it's bound to happen at some point, some idiot not fastening seatbelt, teenagers halfway out the window or smth of the usual human stupidity). Let's hope there's plenty of time for Tesla to respond here and calm things down and then blow everyone away with Q3 earnings. I doubt they'll release anything before they've released the response to the fire because posting good sales numbers now would be more of a slap to the face if they've not yet made a press release of the fire results.

 

[bareyb]

Cramer actually nailed this one. I do feel a less cultish when I drive the Model S. I would think the Nissian in front of me might be thinking, "hey don't get too close to me and hit me to catch a fire"! I usually fantasize people will stare at my car with envy, not a whole lot today.

Maybe I am in this fire for too long. Other people may not associate the MS with fire any more.

Yeah. I spend a lot of time on various forums and it's already died down and gone away for the most part in the "real World". People get it that Gasoline cars are far more dangerous and that this doesn't mean the Teslas aren't safe. It's really that simple for most folks who don't care about cars or stocks. It's only us here and on the stock sites that are freaking out.

 

[stainlesssteel]

Making ICE safe is possible. The only thing that we have to do is to switch to gasoline that is not flammable and come in non liquid form. It is possible, in sixties there was SR-71 jet fuel that do not ignite even if you throw burning match in the puddle of that fuel.

Even completely non-ignitable gasoline wouldn't affect the huge waste heat given off by ICE vehicles--a big source of fires that pure EVs don't have.

 

[Citizen-T]

Citizen-T, you think we will hold the channel or break down? or...?

I think we will hold the channel or breakdown only to form a new parallel channel somewhat lower.

The close wasn't as good as I would have liked, but the price action the hour before close was exactly what I wanted to see.

I think that was it. I think we probably saw the bottom today. If I see stability tomorrow, I'll start shopping for calls. I am afraid that the Bears might launch an all out raid at the open to try to knock it out of the channel for good. That's why I want to see it hold up first.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

 

[maekuz]

I think this is great news: Tesla in talks with Samsung SDI for battery supply deal

Tesla is actively managing the battery supply for Model X and Model E and Samsung is apparently willing to strike a deal.

 

[Larken]

It was not long ago. Many on this site were deriding how TSLA was trading sideways. They were speculating as to what event or news might be the impetus for moving the stock up or down.

Make no mistake, the worldwide Internet generation is constantly bombarded with news-flashes, viral-videos, and the next big thing. This fire video will live out it's fifteen minutes of fame.

The Tesla Model S is still bigger, faster, quieter, and sexier than anything on the road. It is an astonishing product that will revolutionize the world. It is a real tangible product, that will change our lives.

Man-up, Ma'am-up. The quality of the Tesla Model S is historic. An American car rated higher than a Mercedes S500, and a BMW 750 IL, by a German Magazine.

The shorts get killed, day after day, month after month. We have one bad day, and whine.

I believe that Elon Musk, JB Straubel, and crew are all over this. I expect a thorough and complete postmortem, and a lucid and reasonable explanation of the event. More than this, I expect that they will do an extraordinary job communicating and selling the benefits of the Tesla safety features.

The "Solar Electric Economy" revolution continues. It's going to be a long war. Get your mind around it.

+1. Well said Jackl1956. A great reminder and putting things into perspective.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

WTF? How the hell is that allowed? I have 35 hours week. And Im only allowed to work 200 hours overtime a year.

Btw: I dont know what a Chevy volt costs in the US, but its twin the Opel Ampera used to cost 70 000$ here, (model S is 75 000$)now they have dumped the price 10 000$ to 60 000$. Hmm.. what to choose.. 200 people in Norway have to live with the wrong choice.

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I know you didnt mean to do that. But I just picture how the media will put it.

Actually, I'm interested in working conditions and environment at Tesla. For instance, how good or bad is it in relative terms to, let's say, Foxconn ? :biggrin:

Would be interesting to get some real info on that. I mean, no-one ever talks about that, or do they?

 

[hoang51]

Looks like TSLA is being run up in pre-market. Sitting at $176 right now.

 

[tftf]

I've thought the two main big risks associated with TSLA have been a major fire+death event and Elon's health.

I think there's at least another one as long as there is only one factory worldwide: Disruption at the TSLA plant (or local suppliers), eg. due to earthquakes or other major incidents in CA.

Therefore it could make sense to open a factory in Europa and Asia (not just an assembly) well before the NUMMI plant is at maximum capacity.

 

[ipryor]

This is my first post in this thread and my friend forwarded me this perspective on why TSLA dropped in the past two days. This article doesn't talk about the fire or the Baird downgrading so I found it interesting. I looked up a few pages to see if this was already posted and I didn't see it. Enjoy!

http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/02/te...ed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Techcrunch+(TechCrunch)

 

[Larken]

Looks like TSLA is being run up in pre-market. Sitting at $176 right now.

What a week if TSLA manages to close at or above 180 today. Would be great timing and show strength as we enter the weekend and two days of reflection and comtemplation. Would signal huge strength in my book.

 

[tftf]

http://techcrunch.com/2013/10/02/te...ed&utm_campaign=Feed:+Techcrunch+(TechCrunch)

The dilutive effect linked to the convertible and the dilutive effect in general should also not be forgotten. In Q2 2011, TSLA only had a little over 100M shares, now it's at 121M.

 

[Norse]

looking good so far.

 

[kevin99]

My $170 call, expiring today is working great! at $177 now.
I bought another load when it dip and bound back at 170, same price.

 

[Clemsons2k]

Looking good at open

Picked up some calls at 171 yesterday. Finally looks like I had good timing haha.