Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[Jack6591]

This accident will test the mettle of Tesla Motors, and their engineering abilities. Taken a step further, it will test their ability to communicate technical issues and reasonable resolutions on a worldwide stage.

Elon Musk, JB Straubel, and the entire Tesla team................I'm betting on ya.

 

[Norse]

http://jalopnik.com/your-guide-to-the-tesla-model-s-fire-and-why-its-not-1440653929 Well, atleast I hope some of you are happy to see this.

 

[ckessel]

http://jalopnik.com/your-guide-to-the-tesla-model-s-fire-and-why-its-not-1440653929 Well, atleast I hope some of you are happy to see this.

Wow. I am at a loss for words. A Jalopnik article that was actually well written, factual, and reasonable.

 

[borat99]

Wow. I am at a loss for words. A Jalopnik article that was actually well written, factual, and reasonable.

Maybe I'm asking too much, but I'd love to see like 5 bullet points summarizing the entire article at the top for those that don't bother reading beyond the first paragraph.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Wow, how about the conspiracy nuts start their own thread of insanity? Thanks.

Always interested in what is termed snippy and moved and what isn't. Does it have to do with factors other than contact. Could I suggest saying conspiracy proponents and not calling names? Or is this comment inherently snippy
sorry content not contact

 

[FluxCap]

It is out:

http://www.mercurynews.com/business/ci_24233996/viral-video-burning-model-s-sends-tesla-stock

Will be on the print paper tomorrow as well.

It is an honor to be listed with our legendary Bonnie.:smile:

Nice quote, Kevin. I was going to say something similar before in response to others who have expressed "OH NO FACTORY RECALL" fears. Basically, given the proven, tested, genius-level engineering throughout the car (and with our favorite geek-in-chief at the reins of the company), and the maturity of this second-generation product, it would be highly improbable that engineering defects were solely at fault in this incident. Not impossible, but extremely improbable.

Solid reporting by the paper, too.

As for that latest Jalopnik article, I think they were 1) trying to save face given sloppiness of first article and 2) taking a "double-contrarian" stance because the current MSM coverage became as alarmist as they originally were.

Ah, journalism.

Anyway congrats on your fame and fortune. :-D

- - - Updated - - -

I agree. Several things bother me
1. You hit an object with your 90k car and don't immediately stop to see damage, no you keep driving until you encounter trouble. Not human nature to do this
2. Large metallic only description. Not flat fat round, tall square just large and metallic. I am sure it was looked for and not found
3. The driver is not available for any interviews to clarify
4. Filming the flaming wreck while driving and immediately identifying tesla from side, he is a lot better than most. Not looking to see if people escaped. I would have been drawn to flames and not been able to identify the car within a second even though I own it
5. What happened to this object the driver hit it was too large to pass under the car is there mechanical damage the whole length? Would he have heard a single bang or the object being dragged. I have gotten things could under cars and that is what I have heard
this could explain the delay in release of info

I have produced video, and I too was shocked at the point in which the person in the video exclaimed "That's A Tesla" looking at it from a side profile, where no badging is visible. I still don't suspect foul play here, but it is not an impossibility. Naturally, if there was foul play, its Tezillionaire city for we longs. I don't expect such an early Christmas gift this year.

 

[brianstorms]

(I do not see how it is accurate to tell a journalist there was "no concern" among owners who frequent TMC. The "I'm VERY Curious" topic, opened only yesterday morning, has generated a thread 611 replies long, and gotten 54,944 views. A quick scan of that thread would suggest more than a few owners were indeed concerned. Heck, more than a few shareholders in this thread admitted dumping some or all shares. But, I digress.)

- - - Updated - - -

I have produced video, and I too was shocked at the point in which the person in the video exclaimed "That's A Tesla" looking at it from a side profile, where no badging is visible. I still don't suspect foul play here, but it is not an impossibility. Naturally, if there was foul play, its Tezillionaire city for we longs. I don't expect such an early Christmas gift this year.

I hold no suspicions that the video is faked. I think the holder of the smartphone, if that is what it was, was preoccupied with watching the fire and holding the camera and -- I don't know, was he driving too? In traffic, with fire engines all over the place? I think it quite normal for people under cognitive overload to recognize it's a new car while perhaps they're trying to remember the name of the car, and then when they see it in its distinctive profile with its distinctive wheels, oh yeah, it's a Tesla, etc.

 

[tslafan123]

worst case?

http://jalopnik.com/your-guide-to-the-tesla-model-s-fire-and-why-its-not-1440653929 Well, atleast I hope some of you are happy to see this.

Whats the worst case scenario here? What if there is a recall of all the cars delivered? How expensive would that be? Worst case $100M? Can it be more?

I am just trying to understand the worst case so I can plan/hedge accordingly.

 

[FluxCap]

I hold no suspicions that the video is faked. I think the holder of the smartphone, if that is what it was, was preoccupied with watching the fire and holding the camera and -- I don't know, was he driving too? In traffic, with fire engines all over the place? I think it quite normal for people under cognitive overload to recognize it's a new car while perhaps they're trying to remember the name of the car, and then when they see it in its distinctive profile with its distinctive wheels, oh yeah, it's a Tesla, etc.

Which is why I reiterate that I do not suspect foul play (and if there was, that was certainly not a faked video, but a staged performance). Here on the East Coast, I don't think 1 person in 1000 could identify a Tesla like that man did from the apparent distance and line of sight he had. But you know, we're all crotchety plebians over here anyway that know nothing about new-fangled technology from Californee.

 

[hoang51]

Whats the worst case scenario here? What if there is a recall of all the cars delivered? How expensive would that be? Worst case $100M? Can it be more?

I am just trying to understand the worst case so I can plan/hedge accordingly.

If there was a recall, it would be expensive for sure. How much depends on what Tesla Motors need to do to avoid puncturing of the battery compartment. Change of materials and/or thicknesses would be the first assumption. Redesigning the battery compartment and then testing it would take a while too. But a few issues still remains: the object that caused destruction and how fast the driver was going.

 

[Norse]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/samsung-sdi-shares-drop-tesla-001128615.html well, I guess now is not the time to announce that deal

 

[Convert2013]

Whats the worst case scenario here? What if there is a recall of all the cars delivered? How expensive would that be? Worst case $100M? Can it be more?

I am just trying to understand the worst case so I can plan/hedge accordingly.

I put a post about this yesterday. It depends on what the fix is. To further protect the battery packs and their liquid cooling lines from damage due to low to medium energy collisions additional shielding or re-designing the underlay of the main battery pack could be solutions. Any shielding underneath that protrudes further could affect ground clearances and aerodynamics, not to mention added weight, so those are considerations. Cost: A guess would be $250 for parts only per car and two hours of labor for something simple like the shielding. This does not include cost to redesign/reengineer etc (engineering costs are about $150 per hour and say 2000 hours total). If the battery design (battery assembly for underlay not chemistry or architecture) is changed then it would be WAY more expensive especially if they have to be replaced-- I am not sure if the batteries are completely sealed, etc so cannot comment.

 

[JRP3]

Always interested in what is termed snippy and moved and what isn't. Does it have to do with factors other than contact. Could I suggest saying conspiracy proponents and not calling names?

Nah, I call em like I see em. Creating a conspiracy theory with zero evidence of such and no realistic way to create this accident that would not be easily discovered, should lead a rational person to dismiss the very idea. Especially in the face of plenty of data that leads to a plausible explanation of what actually happened. The car ran over something at speed on the highway, kept driving, until the car put up warnings, which caused the driver to take an exit and pull over and stop, where the car started smoking and caught fire.
Or maybe Elon's alien overlords finally tracked him down, blasted the car with an invisible death ray, in an attempt to ruin his company and force him to abandon his adopted planet and return home. Plus they heavily shorted TSLA.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Good time to buy TSLA in my estimation. When the press and the markets are freaking out, that's when deals are to be had.

If there was a recall, it would be expensive for sure. How much depends on what Tesla Motors need to do to avoid puncturing of the battery compartment. Change of materials and/or thicknesses would be the first assumption. Redesigning the battery compartment and then testing it would take a while too. But a few issues still remains: the object that caused destruction and how fast the driver was going.

I think it would be virtually impossible to design a completely puncture-proof pack. There's tremendous energy at play when a 4800 pound automobile is moving at highway speeds.

If anything, the fire incident should make investors confident because the Model S has demonstrated ability to handle pack damage. The Tesla/SpaceX engineering principle of assuming that failures will occur, and designing systems to handle those failures, proved itself on Tuesday.

The pack fire was contained to one sector of battery cells. The car alerted the driver of the danger. The car vented the flames away from the passenger compartment, and no one was injured in the accident.

Once people realize this, which may take awhile given the graphic images and video, the frenzy will subside.

In the meantime, long term investors should have little to worry about here.

 

[ChrisA]

I have not seen anyone comparing the average annual incidence of US vehicle fires to Tesla's Model S. My quick analysis is summarized in the table below. These stats suggest that a Model S is 80-90% less likely to catch on fire than the average American vehicle. Does this seem about right? Anyone seen any different stats? If these are accurate, then Tesla has quite a good record with just this one incident and any talk of recall does not make sense.

	Stat	Source
Number of US Vehicles on Road	254,000,000	US Bureau of Transportation Statistics Via wikipedia, Passenger vehicles in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Average annual incidence of vehicle fires	287,000	"US Vehicle Fire Trends and Patterns", http://tkolb.net/FireReports/US_VehFirTrePat2003-2007.pdf
Average annual incidence of vehicle fires as % of total	0.11%
Average Model S’s on road in past year	10,000
Projected vehicle fires at US average	11.2992126
Actual	1
	1,000,000,000
Vehicle fires per billion miles driven	90	"US Vehicle Fire Trends and Patterns", http://tkolb.net/FireReports/US_VehFirTrePat2003-2007.pdf
	0.000009%
Model S vehicle miles driven	60,000,000
Projected vehicle fires at US average	5.4
Actual	1

 

[brianman]

Wow. I am at a loss for words. A Jalopnik article that was actually well written, factual, and reasonable.

+1

I have to give them credit for something that is far closer to the journalism that I frequently critique, well just about everyone, for not providing adequately.

Kudos, Jalopnik, on this one.


To be clear, I don't care (well I do a little) about their opinion. It's the factual content that I'm applauding here.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Something about having a floating point number in your forum handle makes me appreciate this reference even more.

Haha, I didn't even make that connection in my head.

FDIV really had me worried almost 20 years ago, because the prospect of Intel having to recall millions of flawed Pentium processors really called into question the mathematical accuracy of Intel's then flagship product. The implications for financial and scientific applications were severe. I was banging my head against the wall when Intel initially denied that the bug was a real problem.

The Tesla situation is vastly different of course. The Model S in question handled the collision and resulting pack breach well. In my estimation, its very unlikely there's a design problem

 

[brianman]

Here on the East Coast, I don't think 1 person in 1000 could identify a Tesla like that man did from the apparent distance and line of sight he had.

I'm growing weary of this argument.

Here is what the crappy camera phone video showed when he said "Oh". Most people on this forum could identify that as a Tesla even with fogged windows and no defroster retrofit. This was after they panned, so he saw the entire front end when the "aha" moment pulsed through his brain.

 

[MartinAustin]

Most people on this forum could identify that as a Tesla

YES and we've gotta give the guy who made the video props for recognizing the car. There are gonna be people out there who know what a Tesla looks like... just a fact of life now.

The problem I have is that in his earlier statement, he concluded (and considered it important enough to mention) the car is brand new. Is it unusual for brand new cars to be on fire? Is it normally old cars that are on fire? And... critically... the car was obscured by flames and smoke when he said it. How could he tell it was brand new?

Anyhow... getting it back to the STOCK FOLKS I am surprised no-one commented on Cramer's response to a phone-in question about all this. Here's the transcript since I had nothing better to do

Cramer: Let's go to Max in Florida... Max:

Max: I know, if you feel as I do, that Elon Musk and his world-class engineers are gonna engineer their way through the recent problems much like Boeing would, and if, maybe the downgrade would be the rain on the parade, or do you think this stock will run 'til the end of the year?

Cramer: You know when you see that video of the Tesla car, I mean I... I musta watched it ten times. I mean 'cos I was just kinda fascinated. And when you're fascinated and the stock is up 400%, there'll be people who'll say "you know what? I'm not waiting around for the second. I'm not waiting around for the second fire." And that's where you are right now. I have always said, this stock goes up until they execute poorly... this was not their fault, but when people read a video and they own that stock, they'll say "you know what? I'm sellin' it... 'cos the next one is going to be as bad." Unless there's not a next one, the stock is gonna go lower, you know uh, that's the problem, people gonna keep waiting for the next one. Alright - Tesla... it's finally time to take a little profit. If you... I've stood by and watched this cult stock. But know that if I were part of the cult, I would feel a little less cultish after today.

 

[AlMc]

YES and we've gotta give the guy who made the video props for recognizing the car. There are gonna be people out there who know what a Tesla looks like... just a fact of life now.

The problem I have is that in his earlier statement, he concluded (and considered it important enough to mention) the car is brand new. Is it unusual for brand new cars to be on fire? Is it normally old cars that are on fire? And... critically... the car was obscured by flames and smoke when he said it. How could he tell it was brand new?

Anyhow... getting it back to the STOCK FOLKS I am surprised no-one commented on Cramer's response to a phone-in question about all this. Here's the transcript since I had nothing better to do

Cramer: Let's go to Max in Florida... Max:

Max: I know, if you feel as I do, that Elon Musk and his world-class engineers are gonna engineer their way through the recent problems much like Boeing would, and if, maybe the downgrade would be the rain on the parade, or do you think this stock will run 'til the end of the year?

Cramer: You know when you see that video of the Tesla car, I mean I... I musta watched it ten times. I mean 'cos I was just kinda fascinated. And when you're fascinated and the stock is up 400%, there'll be people who'll say "you know what? I'm not waiting around for the second. I'm not waiting around for the second fire." And that's where you are right now. I have always said, this stock goes up until they execute poorly... this was not their fault, but when people read a video and they own that stock, they'll say "you know what? I'm sellin' it... 'cos the next one is going to be as bad." Unless there's not a next one, the stock is gonna go lower, you know uh, that's the problem, people gonna keep waiting for the next one. Alright - Tesla... it's finally time to take a little profit. If you... I've stood by and watched this cult stock. But know that if I were part of the cult, I would feel a little less cultish after today.

I, for one, feel a little more 'cultish' when Cramer says this....I used to watch him for advice. Now, if I come across him as I channel surf I stop for a moment for the entertainment value versus analysis and advice. Thanks for the luke warm comments Jim, you have just convinced me it is time to buy more TSLA. :wink:


Sorry all, Just a little snippy tonight from lack of sleep from keeping up with all the posts over the last 24 hours